BristowWx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 We can still bust..that potential always looms large. But I have also seen where the NAM looks awesome and I am looking at the radar, and out my window, thinking WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, ravensrule said: You need to step back from the keyboard before you snap. It’s only snow. CHILL. Come join the dark side of litagation. It makes everything seem intense. I’m cool as a cumcumber brother! Always am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 RGEM is further east with the low placement and gives us less qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 20 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said: I see the NAM 3k and it has me worried, but then I look at the massive returns in SWVA racing our way, and the radar already filling in just to our southwest, and suddenly I'm not so worried. Is the NAM low because it doesn't see that PCPN.... Or is it because it keeps the elevated warm layer along/east of 95 (i.e. SLEET) longer than originally progged? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: Come join the dark side of litagation. It makes everything seem intense. I’m cool as a cumcumber brother! Always am Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, WxMan1 said: Is the NAM low because it doesn't see that PCPN.... Or is it because it keeps the elevated warm layer along/east of 95 (i.e. SLEET) longer than originally progged? Beats the hell out of me, I'm just a run-of-the-mill snow weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, WxMan1 said: Is the NAM low because it doesn't see that PCPN.... Or is it because it keeps the elevated warm layer along/east of 95 (i.e. SLEET) longer than originally progged? That seems like a question we would ask you. So which is it? Or is it just the NAM? Or are we going to fail like usual? All valid questions that can’t really be answered until this time tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 35 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I just looked at it. I'm pretty sane. Looks like 4 to 8" as predicted. What is up with this koma dude? Trolling at its best? I have been seeing him post today, I just get annoyed by him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, WxMan1 said: Is the NAM low because it doesn't see that PCPN.... Or is it because it keeps the elevated warm layer along/east of 95 (i.e. SLEET) longer than originally progged? Seeing on twitter that the NAM might have had a bad data ingest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 If y'all want to ignore the trend in basically every 00z model, that's your prerogative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Seeing on twitter that the NAM might have had a bad data ingest. Like me after Mexican food. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, WxUSAF said: Seeing on twitter that the NAM might have had a bad data ingest. I think that's normal for the NAM..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 RGEM doesn't look too great either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 9 minutes ago, BristowWx said: That seems like a question we would ask you. So which is it? Or is it just the NAM? Or are we going to fail like usual? All valid questions that can’t really be answered until this time tomorrow Well, The elevated warm layer around 850 mb cannot be ignored with a 40-50 kt easterly flow, although strong UVVs can overcome that. However, the drop in QPF per the NAM (and HRRR. and RGEM) is likely a byproduct of weaker lift as the CCB early Wed gets its act together. Weaker lift = less snow, more likelihood of a mix. So it does look like both. Hopefully this scenario doesn't play out, but I'll tell you right now....I'd lock that original LWX 4-6" IMBY right now if I could. Like...now. I've always thought 4-6" would be the bar for me and the big cities (maybe closer to 6" for Baltimore). Still do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, B-Paq said: RGEM doesn't look too great either... It is drier. Looks similar to the NAMs actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I am looking at the radar and I like what I see. That first line heading this way that has produced thunder sleet still looks healthy , should be quite interesting. A very dynamic storm forming, I am excited to see how this all plays out!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 If it was just the NAM, that's one thing. But RGEM and HRRR continue to cut back, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, osfan24 said: If it was just the NAM, that's one thing. But RGEM and HRRR continue to cut back, too. You need to go to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: If it was just the NAM, that's one thing. But RGEM and HRRR continue to cut back, too. I better get my ass to bed - work's gonna be on time tomorrow at this rate! Good luck, men. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Last nights NAM did a similar thing. The only thing I can think of is the moisture transport issues MN Transplant was talking about last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, wxtrix said: professional mets in regional offices and at national offices like the SPC have called out the potential for this storm. but yeah, a weenie reading models verbatim and with no context, no math knowledge, no high level physics, etc., is a better forecaster. just sign off. LWX has me in the 8-12 zone, as well as most of NW DC and Arlington. I guarantee nobody in Arlington or DC will see 8" or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 13 minutes ago, Cobalt said: That does sound meteorologically impossible. We need DT to confirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 ICON is east and drops less qpf. Remember, if the low trends east and is not tucked we have moisture transport issues. The higher amounts will be to our northeast which has been the trend with every model at 0z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, snjókoma said: LWX has me in the 8-12 zone, as well as most of NW DC and Arlington. I guarantee nobody in Arlington or DC will see 8" or more. Go to sleep Snoke Jamoke and stop trying to suck all the fun out of this storm https://media.giphy.com/media/3ohhwmyVif5gbPfBn2/giphy.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, wxtrix said: here's the LWX graphic with a 10:30 pm timestamp Oops. There was a previous map that had the 8-12 draped through the NW part of the immediate area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, wxtrix said: here's the LWX graphic with a 10:30 pm timestamp these maps are useless...they have changed 9 times today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 The 00z RGEM run gets back to the post I made earlier tonight. RGEM has moved towards its 12z ensemble mean. That's not surprising. The best runs usually get the most attention, but the outliers rarely verify. We all know that. But we're still in good position to see the best widespread snow event tomorrow that we've seen in years. I'll add one more map to the ones I posted earlier. This is the fraction of RGEM ensemble members that give at least 0.4" qpf as snow. And for many of us, a majority of members give more than 0.6" qpf as snow. Tomorrow might not be as historic as the Euro showed (although it might), but I'm pretty sure that for many of us it's going to be a good day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 You about to Jump Ji? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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