Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Let's keep it clean and analysis only. We have much to discuss even though obs will pile up at light speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 This has been a pretty decent experimental tool to use for locating where fronto/banding will set up, and it looks like we are going to be monitoring that going forward with this event. The 12k NAM is the one I look at the most. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 Looking through 6z guidance it seems that the euro run last night was too agressive with flip to all snow. Winchester crew was mostly all snow for the entire event but that's not happening. Meso's and even the gfs look sick with us being in the sweet spot for banding tomorrow though. Going to be a helluva scene if it comes together right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3k nam had some really nice banding. Just a beat down for most of the sub forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Looking through 6z guidance it seems that the euro run last night was too agressive with flip to all snow. Winchester crew was mostly all snow for the entire event but that's not happening. Meso's and even the gfs look sick with us being in the sweet spot for banding tomorrow though. Going to be a helluva scene if it comes together right. Seems like some 6z guidance has the 95 crew flipping to some snow before the "lull". This was modeled quite aggressively on the Euro... not so sure it plays out like that. Pretty pesky warm nose between 900-825mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Looking through 6z guidance it seems that the euro run last night was too agressive with flip to all snow. Winchester crew was mostly all snow for the entire event but that's not happening. Meso's and even the gfs look sick with us being in the sweet spot for banding tomorrow though. Going to be a helluva scene if it comes together right. It was always looking like a sleetfest early on (minus the sick Euro run). Rain to sleet for the less favored areas. I think we are right on track for a solid event. I do think frozen will be the dominant precip type by between 10am and noon and into the lull. Fun tracking ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 It got lost at the end of the old thread but after a decent last year or so since the upgrade the Nams really had trouble with this. Even now they finally figured it out for us (at least 3k) but then go off on a tangent after 30 hours downstream of us. They have been jumping wildly from run to run while all other guidance has been steadily slowly trending towards the consensus solution. All the Nams have done is add noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Mentioned this earlier but looking over things I think we see a heavier band of snow and/or sleet rotate from DC towards the PA line later this afternoon into early evening. At this time we see a closed upper low to our west and as that breaks down the energy will be ejected eastward through our region. Would not be surprised if some can get a quick couple/few inches of snow with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Looking through 6z guidance it seems that the euro run last night was too agressive with flip to all snow. Winchester crew was mostly all snow for the entire event but that's not happening. Meso's and even the gfs look sick with us being in the sweet spot for banding tomorrow though. Going to be a helluva scene if it comes together right. Winchester just went to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Looking through 6z guidance it seems that the euro run last night was too agressive with flip to all snow. Winchester crew was mostly all snow for the entire event but that's not happening. Meso's and even the gfs look sick with us being in the sweet spot for banding tomorrow though. Going to be a helluva scene if it comes together right. It’s pouring snow here Bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psurulz Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Bob...Snowing to beat the band here in Stephenson! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Winchester just went to snow Euro FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It got lost at the end of the old thread but after a decent last year or so since the upgrade the Nams really had trouble with this. Even now they finally figured it out for us (at least 3k) but then go off on a tangent after 30 hours downstream of us. They have been jumping wildly from run to run while all other guidance has been steadily slowly trending towards the consensus solution. All the Nams have done is add noise. Yeah, I analyzed the 00z NAM last night in the main thread and then opened up the 06z this morning and it was, of course, completely different. Why bother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, MN Transplant said: Yeah, I analyzed the 00z NAM last night in the main thread and then opened up the 06z this morning and it was, of course, completely different. Why bother. I think I speak for everyone when I say that we all want to hear your thoughts regardless of whether it's what we want to hear. Are you liking this morning's run better? Thanks, and I'll delete this post in a few minutes to keep the thread clean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 22 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It’s pouring snow here Bob Dude, that is kick ass. Love it. My temps is 33 with mush and sleet mixing in. Dont want to turn this into obs thread. Looks like the euro is doing better than I thought. I hope you get raked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 What will be really nice about this storm is that it won't be over in 20 minutes. Ji can't complain about seeing the back edge as soon as it starts. We've had so many systems recently that zip right through with only a 4-6 hour period of precip. Really hoping this lingers into tomorrow evening as it snows itself out. Blocking ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 17 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Yeah, I analyzed the 00z NAM last night in the main thread and then opened up the 06z this morning and it was, of course, completely different. Why bother. I'm becoming more and more of a gfs/euro combo only until very short leads. Nams cause more trouble than help like 90% of the time. Now that soundings after onset are initializing with 12z, the nam3 probably carries sig weight but man do they mess with our heads. Remember the 12k 2 nights ago with its Williamsburg jack and dryslot over us? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 18 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Guess he's not a Euro fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 the fun part of the storm is still a ways away and starting to form down south with that NS energy diving down... http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?type=northeast-wv-1-48&checked=&prodDim=100&overDim=100 for the dc area, today is the day to get work done. i don't think anything exciting happens until tomorrow morning when that next coastal pops and temps begin to crash. part 1 is for the N/W suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 54 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Dude, that is kick ass. Love it. My temps is 33 with mush and sleet mixing in. Dont want to turn this into obs thread. Looks like the euro is doing better than I thought. I hope you get raked Raining here now Bob. Only sleets/snows in heavier precip. Euro may end up right, but further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 12 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Guess he's not a Euro fan. Actually, I believe he is a Euro fan suggesting suppression from the confluence up North. Very low dews up North as well . His actual snowfall map favors our region for the 6 to 12 inches range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Looks like the significant snow moves into DC at about 11 hours from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Hrrrrrrrrrrrrrr looks impressive. Hope it verifies as snow. Would be falling soon out this way. Last March it was the model that kept saying it would mix out here (and was right) . But I do not think it is consistent on snow forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, supernovasky said: HRRR Going to be a fun 36 hrs...we are making up for lost time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, frd said: Actually, I believe he is a Euro fan suggesting suppression from the confluence up North. Very low dews up North as well . His actual snowfall map favors our region for the 6 to 12 inches range. Yeah, he also did mention Central MD as a spot that could get more than expected and end up with 1-2 feet, though by Central MD, I would assume he means PSUHoffman and mappy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Yeah, he also did mention Central MD as a spot that could get more than expected and end up with 1-2 feet, though by Central MD, I would assume he means PSUHoffman and mappy. 1-2 feet? ha. OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, mappy said: 1-2 feet? ha. OK. Well, that's what the Euro printed out and even if you consider it aggressive in painting a region-wide 12-18, if you consider that you and your northern friends always seem to get banded and often up with better ratios than expected, 12-18 certainly seems doable. It should snow pretty hard for a long time tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, mappy said: 1-2 feet? ha. OK. Didn't want to mention it myself and come out looking like a weenie but I can see the possibility. 2 Feet might be stretching it but a foot and a half is within the realm of possibility IMO. That said I am sticking with my thoughts of 6-12 for now for your region but I reserve the right to change that upwards after seeing the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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