March 20-21 Snow and other Observations

[KamuSnow]

Light sleet with a few flakes once in a while here, 29F. Just a little bit of freezing rain too (knock on wood), but enough to start some of the bamboo bending a little.

[The Iceman]

1 minute ago, penndotguy said:

WOW, Mt Holly Going all in?

The following is stated with a request to please check back on
our 4 AM products tomorrow morning. But as of this writing...we
continue to need to sound the siren for major or extreme impact
for the I95 corridor to I80 Wednesday afternoon and night.

Major and dangerous probable record breaking March winter snow
storm (pasting!) for both the 2 day total and the month of
March for parts of our area (NNJ for the month, PHL the storm)
with impassable roads expected and possibly the greatest number
of power outages from any storm so far in March. This continues
to look HUGE and potential extreme impact I95 corridor up to
I80.

Take this storm seriously and prepare for changing your daily
plans, especially Wednesday. Unnecessary travel is not recommended
Wednesday in eastern PA and the northwest two thirds of NJ. It
could be life threatening if disabled in rural areas. If you
have to travel, plan for much much longer commutes. Potential
exists widespread cancellations in eastern PA and much of nw NJ.

Wow!! Very strongly worded. That's one to potentially save for the nostalgia.

[Violentweatherfan]

@The Iceman

http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/wssi/wssi.php?id=PHI

***experimental***

[mattinpa]

Anyone know how long this lull in precip is supposed to last? Have a coating here.

[wkd]

18z gem snow accum. Looks like we are in 40-50mm. Water equivalent as snow. Other thread is dead.

 

[The Iceman]

7 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

Anyone know how long this lull in precip is supposed to last? Have a coating here.

Will probably be from now until 6z.(2 am) Not necessarily a lull as I think we ll still see light-moderate precip in this time but we begin to see round 2 move in after 6z and we should be fully ripping by 12z. 

[GreenVoodooWX]

33F with Sleet here ESE of Reading. 

[Redmorninglight]

That is some serious language from Mt Holly. 35 and rainy with a nasty NE wind. About as shi!!y as it can get outside. Not sure what to expect down here. NWS going with 4-8" NAM models show more in interior S Jersey but it's hard to interpret the cape as far as the color shading goes. Might be a resolution issue. What do you guys think?

[Hurricane Agnes]

18 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Will probably be from now until 6z.(2 am) Not necessarily a lull as I think we ll still see light-moderate precip in this time but we begin to see round 2 move in after 6z and we should be fully ripping by 12z. 

Yeah - there is some convection firing off the coast of SC and I think that is progged to move north and join up with whatever low(s) comes off the coast further up north of there.

[anthonyweather]

Also from Mt holly... 10-20 widespread. Up to 25"


Just WOW. Jan 16' part 2

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[zenmsav6810]

Just now, anthonyweather said:

Also from Mt holly... 10-20 widespread. Up to 25"


Just WOW. Jan 16' part 2

Sent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk
 

1958 called, they want their snow back! Seriously Mt. Holly, traditionally the adults in the room, are basically nowcasting an extreme impact blizzard. 

[zenmsav6810]

45 minutes ago, wkd said:

18z gem snow accum. Looks like we are in 40-50mm. Water equivalent as snow. Other thread is dead.

 

Leave it to Crazy uncle UKIE to dial things up to 11.

[SP]

You in NJ or PA ?

NJ and the steaks were better than round one

[penndotguy]

sleet and snow 33 dp 21. some back roads are a little icy

[SmokeEater]

Really getting worried down here in SJ, even if we don't get the extreme amounts, we have ice on EVERYTHING. Our trees are already weakened from the last 2 storms....

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[tcutter]

Lots of sleet and around 29 degrees in Coatesville

[The Iceman]

8 minutes ago, SmokeEater said:

Really getting worried down here in SJ, even if we don't get the extreme amounts, we have ice on EVERYTHING. Our trees are already weakened from the last 2 storms....

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Same here, we still have branches down on the side of roads that haven't been cleaned up. Have had freezing drizzle mixing in with the sleet the last hour as well so there's a glaze on everything untreated now. Really concerned about the amount of tree damage tomorrow seeing how we are supposed to get 4-6 inches more than the storm that caused the worse tree damage in my area since Sandy. I'm excited as all hell for the snow to start but also nervous as the same time as a home owner with two big trees in the yard. This has to potential to be an all timer...

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just walked in the door from a treacherous ride home from Blue Bell to Warminster. First of all, the notion of sun angle in mid/late March is garbage.....complete garbage. There was between .10-.20 ice accretion on everything....straight ice.....freezing rain, icicles on cars etc. So with CAD, even during the day in March, you can get freezing rain under ideal conditions no questions asked. I have personally never seen ice accretion like this during the second half of March that I EVER remember here.

Ride was fun.....parts of 611 closed, part of Street Road shut down. Then waves of fzra, sleet, and mashed potato golf balls would blast down. Temp 30-31f entire ride. Roads seemed to improve closer to Warminster slightly.

Concern is growing significantly for downed trees and power outages. With a foundation now of somewhat unexpected ice accretion between .10-.20 and prospects of concrete significant snowfall, this is potentially setting up to be one of the biggest impact storms the area has seen in quite a while. Hope I'm wrong but the icing on everything now as a foundation before heavy mashed potato snow can't possibly be good.

[ChescoWx]

East Nantmeal Township 

Chester County Pa

as of 830pm light IP Snow mix temp 28.7

Snow/IP so far 1.8" 

[RedSky]

Lost 5 trees on March 2nd i bet i don't lose any this time that was all about winds gusting to 70mph. I have changed my thoughts on this being 8:1 ratio wet snow should be cold enough for a more normal snow. The April storm in 2003 was powdery. 

 

 

[Newman]

March 58 and January 16 are decent analogs for this storm IMO. I was looking at the 58' 500mb maps and they reminded me very similarly to what we are about to experience in 12-24 hours. For Jan 16, the evolution is obviously quite different to what we have now but one similarity is the precip shield and tucking of the low into the delmarva. 

Also, if you've been looking at the radar, you'll notice that much of the precip off shore is or at least was moving west to east. This was associated with the escaping PVA from round one. The precip over us was moving south to north due to the backing of the flow with the trough going negative. IMO, this is slightly earlier than expected (backing of the flow, trough going negative, etc) and gives me more confidence that a super tucked solution like the 18z NAM could actually happen. Whether the precip totals are as absurd as the recent NAM is yet to be seen and won't be seen until the storm is churning. I like what I'm seeing for SE PA.

[wkd]

18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Just walked in the door from a treacherous ride home from Blue Bell to Warminster. First of all, the notion of sun angle in mid/late March is garbage.....complete garbage. There was between .10-.20 ice accretion on everything....straight ice.....freezing rain, icicles on cars etc. So with CAD, even during the day in March, you can get freezing rain under ideal conditions no questions asked. I have personally never seen ice accretion like this during the second half of March that I EVER remember here.

Ride was fun.....parts of 611 closed, part of Street Road shut down. Then waves of fzra, sleet, and mashed potato golf balls would blast down. Temp 30-31f entire ride. Roads seemed to improve closer to Warminster slightly.

Concern is growing significantly for downed trees and power outages. With a foundation now of somewhat unexpected ice accretion between .10-.20 and prospects of concrete significant snowfall, this is potentially setting up to be one of the biggest impact storms the area has seen in quite a while. Hope I'm wrong but the icing on everything now as a foundation before heavy mashed potato snow can't possibly be good.

Great post of your experience. I  wonder if Mt Holly  reads these threads.

[Lady Di]

I’m an old fart and cannot recall anything like this forecast in spring. I missed 58 by 3 Year’s.  Heard many a story from relatives and friends from that time. 

 

Also, as I posted last night I wasn’t feeling historic just fits right into the underdog effect that brought the Lombardi to my city.

 

28 mix sleet/sn

[Itstrainingtime]

Here in Lancaster county, I received 3" of snow today in 3 hours. That came with an air temperature of 25 degrees. Most paved surfaces were wet with a little slush. Yes...the sun angle is a factor. Can snow stick and ice still build up? Sure. But to say the sun doesn't have an influence is not accurate. I saw the other side today.

[BBasile]

Have about .75" of solid ice on the pavement here.  All the sleet and slush has frozen over.  There is also some ice accretion on trees and powerlines.  I don't think we'll have a problem with the snow sticking.  

[zenmsav6810]

11 minutes ago, wkd said:

Great post of your experience. I  wonder if Mt Holly  reads these threads.

I'm sure they do. A few of our regulars are Mt. Holly Mets. I expect their forecast to be spot on with this storm.

[KamuSnow]

1 minute ago, RedSky said:

Lost 5 trees on March 2nd i bet i don't lose any this time that was all about winds gusting to 70mph. I have changed my thoughts on this being 8:1 ratio wet snow should be cold enough for a more normal snow. The April storm in 2003 was powdery. 

Yeah I've been thinking about that as well, and wouldn't mind it at all (colder temps, higher ratios, less building on trees, etc). One step at a time now with the freezing rain overnight, although it looks to be fairly light and the radar is doing a parting of the seas kind of deal down this way (nice look from the Dover radar). If it's not going to be snowing I can deal with an absence of freezing rain. Pretty sure that for both March 2nd and March 7th most of the snow here fell with the temperature around 33F. If we can stay at or below freezing tomorrow (like today), we might be in better shape. Blowing and drifting snow would look good too.

[LVLion77]

Just walked in the door from a treacherous ride home from Blue Bell to Warminster. First of all, the notion of sun angle in mid/late March is garbage.....complete garbage. There was between .10-.20 ice accretion on everything....straight ice.....freezing rain, icicles on cars etc. So with CAD, even during the day in March, you can get freezing rain under ideal conditions no questions asked. I have personally never seen ice accretion like this during the second half of March that I EVER remember here.

Ride was fun.....parts of 611 closed, part of Street Road shut down. Then waves of fzra, sleet, and mashed potato golf balls would blast down. Temp 30-31f entire ride. Roads seemed to improve closer to Warminster slightly.

Concern is growing significantly for downed trees and power outages. With a foundation now of somewhat unexpected ice accretion between .10-.20 and prospects of concrete significant snowfall, this is potentially setting up to be one of the biggest impact storms the area has seen in quite a while. Hope I'm wrong but the icing on everything now as a foundation before heavy mashed potato snow can't possibly be good.

Enjoyed your post (as always) but caution slightly about sun angle in march. It is not garbage and has to be completely ideal in late march as you said. Tomorrow will be much lower snow ratios at 30-32 compared to this same storm hitting in dec- jan at same temps, or for example Blizzard of march 93 hitting with a lot of eastern pa in 20s during day (one of my favorites of all time.)


.

[KamuSnow]

17 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Here in Lancaster county, I received 3" of snow today in 3 hours. That came with an air temperature of 25 degrees. Most paved surfaces were wet with a little slush. Yes...the sun angle is a factor. Can snow stick and ice still build up? Sure. But to say the sun doesn't have an influence is not accurate. I saw the other side today.

I saw it here too with pretty good rates for about an hour and blacktop shining through wetly. Once it changed to sleet however, it had no problem accumulating on blacktop. Then when you get to 4 or 5 or 6 pm (rush hour traffic time), without looking it up I'd think that the sun angle is probably lower than January at noon, and with temps already at or below freezing, bingo.

[wkd]

1 hour ago, zenmsav6810 said:

Leave it to Crazy uncle UKIE to dial things up to 11.

That was the 18z ggem