famartin Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 1 hour ago, KamuSnow said: Interesting that normal where you are is probably close to where you were here. The pattern of the last 2 winters there sounds like here in 2011-12 and 2012-13. So maybe next winter there? 2013-14 did have a pretty snowy February, but since then it's been 4 in a row of meh, like you said. I might have to check 2015 to be certain though. Might have been better north in the CWA. Pretty much across the region from WV thru NJ, Feb 2015 was above normal snowfall. That was the last decent February. So, 3 bad ones in a row. El Nino favors Feb, and also favors areas south of 40N much more than La Nina. We probably need an El Nino, or next winter will likely be another dud for those of us below 40N. The only good La Nina winter I recall off-hand for those of us below 40N is 1995-96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 13 hours ago, KamuSnow said: Let's see what it looks like tomorrow. Yikes! (If you could, thanks :-)) Two day difference. Just a bit of melt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 24, 2018 Author Share Posted March 24, 2018 53 minutes ago, BBasile said: Two day difference. Just a bit of melt! Just a bit! Some areas are holding on pretty well - not so much here, although the shady spots are trying to hang in there. A nice late March look. Might see Forsythias in another week or so? Last year they were done in by the February heat and March cold. This year has the potential to be a decent year for spring flowers, albeit a little late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 24, 2018 Author Share Posted March 24, 2018 2 hours ago, famartin said: Pretty much across the region from WV thru NJ, Feb 2015 was above normal snowfall. That was the last decent February. So, 3 bad ones in a row. El Nino favors Feb, and also favors areas south of 40N much more than La Nina. We probably need an El Nino, or next winter will likely be another dud for those of us below 40N. The only good La Nina winter I recall off-hand for those of us below 40N is 1995-96. Thanks for the clarification Ray - I checked and we had 13.4" here in February 2015, with the highest snowfall at 5.1", so it was decent here. I have this idea that February is our best snow month, although certainly not the last few years, and it makes sense that the El Nino years are better. If La Nina persists for next winter a dud would not be surprising - seems we got lucky this year, along the Mason Dixon line at least. A weak El Nino later this year would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 1 hour ago, KamuSnow said: Just a bit! Some areas are holding on pretty well - not so much here, although the shady spots are trying to hang in there. A nice late March look. Might see Forsythias in another week or so? Last year they were done in by the February heat and March cold. This year has the potential to be a decent year for spring flowers, albeit a little late. It's the same here. Probably have 5 inches still in the shady areas, the rest is just grass. Looks like it's hanging on mostly in the higher elevations and in Jersey where it was the heaviest. As far as flowers, I'll have to take your word for it. I know nothing. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 Snow in the sun is doing worst than I expected and snow in the shade is doing much better than I expected. With temps in the 40s today, tomorrow and Monday the "shade snow" should still be around come Tuesday morning if not longer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 24, 2018 Author Share Posted March 24, 2018 3 hours ago, BBasile said: It's the same here. Probably have 5 inches still in the shady areas, the rest is just grass. Looks like it's hanging on mostly in the higher elevations and in Jersey where it was the heaviest. As far as flowers, I'll have to take your word for it. I know nothing. lol Yeah, not really a forecast, just an assumption based on the idea of warming up slowly over the next 2 to 3 weeks meaning late blooms, etc., and by mid April we should be at a much reduced risk of a late damaging freeze. Cool maybe but not frigid. It's a nice concept at least :-). We have a white Magnolia which looks and smells great when it's allowed to bloom, and 2 out of the last 4 years it's been messed with by too warm followed by too cold. So I'm cautiously optimistic this year. That's a big hunk of my flower expertise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 24, 2018 Author Share Posted March 24, 2018 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: Snow in the sun is doing worst than I expected and snow in the shade is doing much better than I expected. With temps in the 40s today, tomorrow and Monday the "shade snow" should still be around come Tuesday morning if not longer... Yes indeed - I may need to revise my idea of having some patches of snow (other than piles) around come April 1st. I'm sure there will be a couple somewhere though, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVLion77 Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 14” has been decimated, darn March sun! Flat grass has a small snow covering, any south facing slope was done by early yesterday, and north facing or shade still has several inches. At our latitude snow only has true staying power in dec and jan with feb being marginal and march being this . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 26, 2018 Share Posted March 26, 2018 Even my driveway snow pile(Kamu-Lite) was just about knocked out this weekend by the march sun. Now the only spots with snow in my area are shaded areas. Vast majority was gone after Friday. Spring snow is polarizing. I love that it doesn't stick around to get all dirty/icy but hate that it melts as quick as the storm lasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 26, 2018 Share Posted March 26, 2018 On 3/24/2018 at 12:57 PM, KamuSnow said: Thanks for the clarification Ray - I checked and we had 13.4" here in February 2015, with the highest snowfall at 5.1", so it was decent here. I have this idea that February is our best snow month, although certainly not the last few years, and it makes sense that the El Nino years are better. If La Nina persists for next winter a dud would not be surprising - seems we got lucky this year, along the Mason Dixon line at least. A weak El Nino later this year would be nice. Yep, weak el nino's are usually above average more often than not. If I had to pick an enso state going into winter, a weak nino would be it every time. Only time we get skunked in weak nino's is if the NAO and AO are both positive. But the active STJ is worth the risk of it being warm every time over getting the cold but having no STJ in play. It's still a long way out and so much can change from now until October but the majority of climo models are projecting a weak nino for winter 18-19 right now. Plus we have to be heading into a -NAO majority winter soon after getting practically none the last 3 years. Hopefully things continue to point in the weak nino direction. We can still do really well in a moderate nino too. Just get us out of this freakin La Nina from hell though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 27, 2018 Share Posted March 27, 2018 Still have snow on half of the front lawn average depth 3" max 5", and a large patch of snow and ice remains on the driveway outside the side door. Always thought it interesting that if you have a swath of decent growth pine trees and an open area to their north this spot will keep the snow longest. There is such a spot close by and about 5" remains there. Finished a snow walk in the pale moon light 30F seemed surreal, almost Decemberish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 27, 2018 Share Posted March 27, 2018 CMC has 2-4" snow Monday fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 27, 2018 Share Posted March 27, 2018 EPS is on board with the Monday snow threat while the OP is just south EPS probability of over 3" the next two weeks is 38-44% for this region Yeah the April snow threat is a thing now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 28, 2018 Share Posted March 28, 2018 EPS is on board with the Monday snow threat while the OP is just south EPS probability of over 3" the next two weeks is 38-44% for this region Yeah the April snow threat is a thing now Icon hinting at it too. Ensembles don't look horrible. Iceman needs to consider starting a good mojo thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 28, 2018 Share Posted March 28, 2018 EPS West based neg NAO look is definitely not supportive of any sustained spring-like pattern thru at least the next 10 days. Euro has 2 legit snow potentials over the next 240 hours for our region, the second of which the Euro is really honking. Like I mentioned before, climo says N and W + elevation favored but pattern look suggests we need to at least keep an open mind and continue tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 28, 2018 Share Posted March 28, 2018 The overnight euro had over 6" in the NW burbs centered over the relative high spots in NW Chesco...agreed - something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 28, 2018 Share Posted March 28, 2018 This one looks interesting but I'm not quite on board yet. Another day or 2 before firing up the good luck thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 The overnight euro had over 6" in the NW burbs centered over the relative high spots in NW Chesco...agreed - something to watchEuro op, CMC, Icon all have snow falling Sunday night and/or Monday. GFS has been trending closer with the precip. Doesnt look like a big deal but any snow in April is always worth watching as it doesnt happen too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 Btw, did anybody else see the Euro for late next week? Again, I dont expect many potentials to produce in April but the fact we are still tracking frozen chances is absurd. These progs are close to being something really big tbh at the very least a major coastal storm potential: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 29, 2018 Author Share Posted March 29, 2018 Well the snow pile won't have a problem making it to April 1st, but the remaining snow patches (seen in the way back on the left) are all but gone this morning (this was taken yesterday pm). A little sad, but better to have snowed and melted than never to have snowed at all, as they say :-). Since March 2nd we've had some snow on the ground here (other than in piles), even if in patches. Not a bad run! No sign of forsythias yet (down behind the snow patches) but a few daffodils blooming in sunny places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 29, 2018 Author Share Posted March 29, 2018 17 hours ago, The Iceman said: This one looks interesting but I'm not quite on board yet. Another day or 2 before firing up the good luck thread. Hold your fire! I went and looked to see when the last time we had a snow thread in April and it was just 2 years ago, for April 8th-9th. I thought it had been longer - maybe because those April snows are here today and gone tomorrow. I'm ready though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 Hold your fire! I went and looked to see when the last time we had a snow thread in April and it was just 2 years ago, for April 8th-9th. I thought it had been longer - maybe because those April snows are here today and gone tomorrow. I'm ready though.Monday threat took a step back overnight but maybe that is the seasonal trend at work where it reappears within 72 hours :-D Front comes thru and a weak wave tries to develop along trailing cold front overnight Sunday. Some models have the weak wave, others shear it. Those that have it spread mood flakes and light snows across the Southern part of the region on Monday. Again, doesnt look like much of anything just some white rain at best right now but for April, I'll take it. Euro, CMC, and GFS op on board with a signal for something potentially bigger April 5-10 with a triple phaser being modeled on some ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 GGEM among others is really honking at a day 9-11 potential. Unreal: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GGEM among others is really honking at a day 9-11 potential. Unreal: How is that Monday GGEM-ECM snow looking now lol i think the closer you get to summer the less reliable models get for snow forecasting 65F here feels awesome finally, finally. Feeling some serious anguish about more cold coming in April. * and there comes the 12z euro dropping the long range snow idea, way way north i think safe to say it was all just fantasy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 How is that Monday GGEM-ECM snow looking now lol i think the closer you get to summer the less reliable models get for snow forecasting 65F here feels awesome finally, finally. Feeling some serious anguish about more cold coming in April. * and there comes the 12z euro dropping the long range snow idea, way way north i think safe to say it was all just fantasy Funny thing about Monday's snow threat.....it didnt vanish for reasons one would think given the time of year. Rather than trending N and being a warmer rain threat it has trended South and drier due to a colder push of air lol. Yes, I am surf fishing today and the weather is great! Fishing aint bad either....blues :-) Based on guidance I figured I'd better get out today as it is a decent window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 Euro op outlier, doesnt even jive with the EPS lol. Spring on hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 Honestly, I looking more forward to severe weather (T-storms) than any upcoming potential snow event(s). It's just too late and anything that falls is complete crap. I think we squeezed all we could out of Winter 2018... *Still snow mounds in shopping lots and I have a couple patches in shaded area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 Honestly, I looking more forward to severe weather (T-storms) than any upcoming potential snow event(s). It's just too late and anything that falls is complete crap. I think we squeezed all we could out of Winter 2018... *Still snow mounds in shopping lots and I have a couple patches in shaded area.Agreed, I want a stretch of warm weather too....I have a ton of yardwork to catch up on. But until we see a legit flip to spring we're unfortunately stuck with this pattern....so being a hobbyist Im just tracking whatever nature throws at us whether that is an anomalous cold pattern or a severe threat. After the Day10 threat the NAO finally looks to go positive (tho it continues getting delayed) so hopefully by some point during the 2nd week of April we can start enjoying spring for what it should be in a more sustained manner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 We take? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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