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March 20/21 STORM Obs/Discussion- No Banter


nj2va

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41 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I almost decided to take a break from the board after last nights bad post diarrhea.

You should get 5"+ dude!

 

38 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

 

The one above you was the worst.  It was a pure sewage plant in here earlier this morning.  Worst I've ever seen it.

As I've maintained from the beginning, if I get 4", it's a win.   I think I'll make it.

It was unbearable. I took a break. Wasn't worth arguing with them.

Btw I've often noticed the models have a habit of drastically cutting qpf at the last second. Part is they overdo it some before then but they often go too far in cutting back. Seems to happen a lot. 

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Looks like us NOVA peeps are back in the game after the 60-90 min lull. Loop the radar at 96 frames and you can clearly see the rolling pivot with more of an east-west alignment of echoes pouring in from our friends to our east. Getting darker again thankfully. Got really bright and drippy for a while. Great event. Had over 4" by around 10:15 or so. It'snojoka!

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I repeat - stop looking at the NAM and GFS within 3 hours of a storm for QPF. It’s absolutely useless and why LWX Doesn’t use them either to make short term forecasts. I said it yesterday... wave 2 will be a Baltimore county special. Looks to be that way currently. 

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1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

close to 3.5 - 4" easily. The dang tree limb outside my window has 3" on it lol

That's great man. Looks like an area wide warning level event is a lock at this point. I don't see how most of the beltway crews don't crack 5". Further west gets tricky but you should be good. I'm hoping for some of those parachute bands to develop as it rotates out of here. 

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1 minute ago, jayyy said:

I repeat - stop looking at the NAM and GFS within 3 hours of a storm for QPF. It’s absolutely useless and why LWX Doesn’t use them either to make short term forecasts. I said it yesterday... wave 2 will be a Baltimore county special. Looks to be that way currently. 

How many times are you going to say the same thing?

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2 minutes ago, Mrs.J said:

Very bright out here. Plow came through and the street is staying clear. Checked the ruler and have been holding steady at 4" for the day. Actually a bit of melting going on off the roof. 

Yup..certainly compacting/melting at a faster rate than it is coming down at this point.

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

That's great man. Looks like an area wide warning level event is a lock at this point. I don't see how most of the beltway crews don't crack 5". Further west gets tricky but you should be good. I'm hoping for some of those parachute bands to develop as it rotates out of here. 

Historically pivots have been kind to Leesburg...this thing feels a bit east of history so I'm banking on the fact that I live in Lansdowne now which is east haha

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7 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Looks like us NOVA peeps are back in the game after the 60-90 min lull. Loop the radar at 96 frames and you can clearly see the rolling pivot with more of an east-west alignment of echoes pouring in from our friends to our east. Getting darker again thankfully. Got really bright and drippy for a while. Great event. Had over 4" by around 10:15 or so. It'snojoka!

LMAO LOL x 10000 !

The post diarrhea early this morning around ~ 1am was so bad, I had to hit the bed. It stunk. It was worse than a sewage plant lol. Place got overrun by debbie downers like you wouldnt believe. Tried to reassure ppl, please give the storm a chance. It took a few hours but we got snow, sure enough.

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1 minute ago, 87storms said:

Gfs fwiw continues the trend of a slightly better low position off the coast but again not sure in the grand scheme of things how much it matter.  It does however have decent snow in dc through sunset.

Stop looking at American models. Only a fool would do that when the snow is falling.

 

/s

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