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March 20/21 STORM Obs/Discussion- No Banter


nj2va

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*banter but relevant* I have the feeling that, judging by the constant "storm cancel" posts, a handful of posters on this forum are like the person driving the car with the brake lights leaving the parking lot when this famous game winning home run was hit, then thinking to themselves "I guess I shoulda waited til the end of the game before giving up and leaving..." 

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10 minutes ago, snjókoma said:

Weird how those good returns in Southwest VA are pivoting counter clockwise into West Virginia. But exactly what the NAM showed. Radar looks severely underwhelming.

Please pardon the banter, but...we're getting to that inevitable point, often late in the evening, an hour or two or three before radar is progged to fill in at the onset of a storm, when THIS starts to happen:

giphy.gif

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1 minute ago, Stormpc said:

Banter is prohibited here Golfbro. Ha!

Let it play out. Go to bed. Get up around 7 and check everything out. Don't call a bust when we don't know what's actually going to happen. Enjoy your evening.

30.8. Drizzle. 

Going to bed. It is cold and there are radar returns near by. I will up to check it out bright early. 31 and breezy

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Ok folks, let's do a test. This is the HRRR (I know, bare with me). This is the radar depiction at 3 am

hrrr_ref_maryland_4.thumb.png.7afef271e2e5bff2d8ea7c1a9474c586.png

This is 4 am

hrrr_ref_maryland_5.thumb.png.503ad4b01ba611a896c504750d4c6c1f.png

And finally.. this is 5 am

hrrr_ref_maryland_6.thumb.png.023f0fc1af4e964820218c1a405ae013.png

 

If this sets up 1 or 2 hours late, NBD. HRRR is increasing precip steadily despite later onset time of deform band. Let's play it out. 

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1 minute ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

You can’t even tell there’s a coastal...all upper level low. Just doesn’t scream east coast snow. I’d like to see some streaming convection in the Carolinas. Nada

There's no explosion of precip at all. Just a big low pinwheeling around with scattered precip. We aren't going to accumulate at all during March with scattered light snow during the day. This is looking like a massive bust. When can we start looking at the Sunday storm?

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