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March 20-21 Storm Banter and Party Thread


WxUSAF

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

1”/hr isn’t intense?

 

This will be my last post on the ridiculous expectations game. Try to enjoy today. It’s a freaking KU storm.

It's very solid. I generally think of 2 inches per hour as my bar for intense snowfall. It would take it snowing an inch an hour from now until the middle of the afternoon to get 6 inches.

How is this a KU storm? We are going to get half a foot or so if we are lucky. Not to go all Ji, but that's baffling to me. We had a storm do this several years ago on St. Patrick's Day.

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the euro model was very misleading.  it had 20" of snow nearby, but the algorithm doesn't understand snow vs sleet.  so cut that in half, deduct a couple inches because it's climo, and i think 4-6"+ is a good call right now based off of everything i'm seeing for dc/bmore.  more north/nw/ne.

that said, if that 500 or 850 low is even a little further south or closer to the coast than depicted, i think we could move into the boom category with this.  either way, gotta love daytime snow.

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5 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

I look outside my window at a gorgeous snowstorm underway, covering paved surfaces here in North Bethesda, and then read this last page of downer posts. Whatever. People who want to be disappointed go ahead. The rest of us are enjoying this event.

Some people are displaying some very odd pathology. Awesome storm here, daytime SN+ in late March, don't see how anyone could be disappointed with this. 

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5 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

you have stupid and unrealistic expectations. SPC puts out mesoscale discussions for 1”/hour rates because that is heavy snow. i had 1”/hour rates all throughout the 32” storm from a few years ago. you have no idea what you’re talking about.

and it’s a KU storm in DC because it’s the biggest March DC snowstorm in something like 50 years.

Blame the models, not me. And I thought DC got 6-10 on St Patrick's Day back in 14 or 15?

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9 minutes ago, 87storms said:

the euro model was very misleading.  it had 20" of snow nearby, but the algorithm doesn't understand snow vs sleet.  so cut that in half, deduct a couple inches because it's climo, and i think 4-6"+ is a good call right now based off of everything i'm seeing for dc/bmore.  more north/nw/ne.

that said, if that 500 or 850 low is even a little further south or closer to the coast than depicted, i think we could move into the boom category with this.  either way, gotta love daytime snow.

The parent low seems so slow to move east. I'm curious if maybe that extends are duration. Probably just wishful thinking.

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3 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

The parent low seems so slow to move east. I'm curious if maybe that extends are duration. Probably just wishful thinking.

I'm not trying to start anything with you, after all you are an O's fan, but for someone that seems to take the models verbatim with every run, it seems out of character for you to extrapolate your own thinking.

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19 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

It's very solid. I generally think of 2 inches per hour as my bar for intense snowfall. It would take it snowing an inch an hour from now until the middle of the afternoon to get 6 inches.

How is this a KU storm? We are going to get half a foot or so if we are lucky. Not to go all Ji, but that's baffling to me. We had a storm do this several years ago on St. Patrick's Day.

1" per hour is heavy snow and very impressive snow at that. I guess there's some subjectivity in "intense snow" but 1" per hour rates will be reported by METAR in more cases than not as heavy snow..

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2 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

you’re the one who doesn’t understand forecasting, not the models. 

I got 7” or 8” in that storm in Charles Town. p sure DC did not.

I'd have to check back at my notes...but you are correct. I was driving back from PA and I definitely did not have 6-10 inches when I got home.  

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14 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

...and it’s a KU storm in DC because it’s the biggest March DC snowstorm in something like 50 years.

Bwahahaha!  This won't even be a top-10 March storm for the last 50 years.  March 4, 2014 and St Paddy's Day 2014 were both better.  This won't even touch the March '99 clipper.

Barely pixie dust now in Germantown as the good stuff sets up east of I95.  Congrats east, congrats north, congrats beaches with the "bomb cyclone", congrats Philly, NYC, Boston.

It's the everywhere but here winter.

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Confused by all these heavy snow/1” per hour/roads caving reports. I was told this was a bust?

I just took a six mile walk around my part of balt city. That’s absolutely not the case here in terms of roads caving etc. It is snowing, and pretty, but this isn’t going to accumulate up here much at these rates. Still, glad to walk in falling snow.  But unless something changes drastically, this is an absolute bust in terms of verifying warning level snow here.

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3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

I just took a six mile walk around my part of balt city. That’s absolutely not the case here in terms of roads caving etc. It is snowing, and pretty, but this isn’t going to accumulate up here much at these rates. Still, glad to walk in falling snow.  But unless something changes drastically, this is an absolute bust in terms of verifying warning level snow here.

This thing needs sustained monster rates to verify. Always been my concern that we'd just spit all day and it wouldn't accumulate well. This stuff can pile up for sure if the rates are there.

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11 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Bwahahaha!  This won't even be a top-10 March storm for the last 50 years.  March 4, 2014 and St Paddy's Day 2014 were both better.  This won't even touch the March '99 clipper.

Barely pixie dust now in Germantown as the good stuff sets up east of I95.  Congrats east, congrats north, congrats beaches with the "bomb cyclone", congrats Philly, NYC, Boston.

It's the everywhere but here winter.

I think those of us "south and east" who have spent (in my case, anyway) years watching "north and west" pile up in the inches while we get slush might tell you to just cool your jets this one time.

 

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9 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Bwahahaha!  This won't even be a top-10 March storm for the last 50 years.  March 4, 2014 and St Paddy's Day 2014 were both better.  This won't even touch the March '99 clipper.

Barely pixie dust now in Germantown as the good stuff sets up east of I95.  Congrats east, congrats north, congrats beaches with the "bomb cyclone", congrats Philly, NYC, Boston.

It's the everywhere but here winter.

Radar looks solid. It's going to snow steadily all day. Six inches seems attainable. It's not a top 10 March storm, but it's going to be a decent event. I think you will do fine in Germantown.

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No such road caving, etc here in the city...Pretty much like a random snow squall. Maybe a coating at best...man, warning level snow has been so hard to get here the last two years it's ridiculous. 5 inches has been my benchmark, and I have serious doubts if we can get that unless stuff picks up tremendously...I hope the storm is just a slow mover and it still has time to get good. C'mon...we deserve it!!

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Just came in from the first of many driveway clearings. Wet underneath but a bit of fluff on top. Will be on a 2 hr. check so it will not get too overwhelming. I am restricted to moving lower weights and I want to be able to help my husband. Also it is just what I grew up with in OH before we had a snow blower. 

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6 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Better rates now for first time - and at .75 so far. The banter part - it’s caking the trees and my backyard cardinal population looks gorgeous perched amongst the branches. 

Cardinals are ripping at the bird feeders this morning. Post a pic of a few in the obs thread. It's really starting to come down now in my hood. I should be at 2+ in no time at this point. Radar looking sweet. 

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10 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Cardinals are ripping at the bird feeders this morning. Post a pic of a few in the obs thread. It's really starting to come down now in my hood. I should be at 2+ in no time at this point. Radar looking sweet. 

That is cool! Been trying for a few years to get a photo of a cardinal in the snow... bright red on white background! Alas I either didn't have the camera on me when I saw one or had wrong type lens! :lol:

Anyhow, snowing here at good clip for past couple hours. About 2" on ground and pavement areas covered. Even Connecticut Ave is snow and slush covered up here by beltway (near Chevy Chase area). 

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Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

That is cool! Been trying for a few years to get a photo of a cardinal in the snow... bright red on white background! Alas I either didn't have the camera on me when I saw one or had wrong type lens! :lol:

Anyhow, snowing here at good clip for past couple hours. About 2" on ground and pavement areas covered. Even Connecticut Ave is snow and slush covered up here by beltway (near Chevy Chase area). 

Yeah. They are elusive in the snow it seem lol. I had to get the snapshot when I could. They both flew away literally right after the snap too. I'll take it 

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