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March 20-21 Storm Banter and Party Thread


WxUSAF

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25 minutes ago, T. August said:

Okay in all seriousness, not feeling too good about this one for here at least. I can see the favored areas from today adding another 4-5”, but those who didn’t get much accums, will probably end up with 3-4” storm total. Not bad for March, but would be a storm fail.

 

Before I get **** on, this is just my opinion.

It feels pretty clear now where this one is headed. If you cleaned up today, you might hit 8-10 storm total if everything breaks your way tomorrow.

If you have 1-3 inches now, expect to maybe get to 5 tomorrow.

If you have wet streets or some slush, maybe 1-3 tomorrow.

I have felt all day like tomorrow was being oversold. It will need to come down in buckets for a sustained period of time for the majority of the current forecasts to work out. LWX now has 10+ across a very large part of the CWA which is nuts outside of a thin strip near the PA border.

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Earlier everyone was fretting when LWX wasn’t hoisting warnings soon enough. Now folks are upset LWX is going too big on their amounts. I mean obviously they haven’t digested the 00z suite and it’s cutbacks. Forget the fact that they are all Mets and have studied the math, physics and science. Or that they have experience with our climo, and forecasting here, for some, probably years. Obviously they have no clue. (This is sarcasm if you weren’t sure.)

Folks are getting way over their skis with the deb downer worry imo. We are about to get snow in the Mid Atlantic in late March. Spring has supposedly sprung. But here we are. If you thought you were getting 15 inches in some sort of 5 hour deathband tomorrow, we’ll then yeah you’ll probably be disappointed. But if you’re happy it can still snow around here and are looking forward to enjoying watching stuff fall from the sky tomorrow, then let’s just enjoy this. It’s been a long time since the whole sub has truly gotten a good snowfall. January 2016 was memorable, but too long ago. Now we’ve got a snow storm knocking on our doors. Let’s not waste our time fretting over whether we get 4 or 6 or 12. I know we’re all selfish and we all want all the snow. But let’s just enjoy this one. It’s bonus snow in a snow drought year. If we spend all our time worrying about model output and radar returns not doing precisely what we expected, we’ll then we’re gonna miss out on all the fun. Snow brings everyone here joy. We wouldn’t be hanging out in a winter weather forum if it didn’t. Let’s tap into that and enjoy this storm. It’s gonna snow tomorrow dudes!! There is not a storm cancel. Beautiful white stuff is gonna fall from the sky. Some of us are gonna do better than others. It might be historic, it might not. Let’s not waste this worrying about the things we have no control over. The atmosphere is gonna do its thing. Let’s watch it and enjoy it! 

Sorry for the rant. I’ve lurked and learned so much here. I appreciate all I’ve gained.  There are so many smart people in this forum. Thank you for sharing your knowledge. Now, stiff upper lip, & enjoy our incoming snow. 

 

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Just now, leesburg 04 said:

This would be a pretty sad model performance if this thing goes down in flames. What the heck happened...i went to sleep

Got me. I just woke up at four and temp here has risen from 30 to 34. I think it just didn’t get started in time. And needing ULLs to do the heavy lifting in late March is a bad option...

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1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

It’s march 21st. Morning showers followed by a high around 62 would have been nice. This crap blows all the chunks.

I'd love to be tilling my garden and planting my pototatos, but no. Bob Chill convinced me not to worry about climo. Sorry, Bob. You own this one lol

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