MillvilleWx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Yeah, 8-12 at DCA in late March is nuts. Hell, it's a stretch in January. If DCA records 4, areas nearby could be at 8. Exactly!! In order for DCA to record 10", they needed to cash with the front side of the system, which didn't happen. Matt had a good forecast yesterday for DC proper with an even more conservative 2-4" in hill areas in DC and 1-3" downtown. I can actually see that happen. It really has to come down hard to accumulate in city proper. Inside beltway is a little easier, but still at a disadvantage. You have to get out into the burbs and areas with elevation to see the bigger potential totals. I still like 5-10/6-12" over Central MD. I can see slightly less occur towards the beltways, but I can also see more in the usual areas north of I-70. Models are going to struggle with the dynamics of this system. As long as the H5 and H7 presentation look solid, you just have to let chips fall. I know your thoughts and where you are coming from, and you have every reason to think that because that's a definite way we could fail, but you also know that if this sucker comes to together, than it's off to the races. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 9 minutes ago, PhineasC said: It's pretty clear the models are trimming back now. Pretty much expected. It doesn't snow 12-18 across the area too frequently this late in the season. Best hope now is that the precip we do get comes in like 6 hours rather than 12. every event this year....the last run before the storm had a reduction of something good lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, wxtrix said: ugh the guy on the Weather Channel just said "make its own cold air". nooooooooooooooooo. I saw that. It's over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 9 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Denver gets blasted in April. We got this SMH. You cannot compare us to Denver. It's a whole different world out there. Denver has had monsters in early May too. Arctic plunges can reach them easier than here. Moderation time is way less when it comes due south out of Canada. Has longer to travel to make it here, and we have multiple bodies of water to contend with and moderate the airmass. Also, those Pac trough's are no joke. I forecast out west. It's pretty insane how everything works out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 It probably is time to panic, unless all the models are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 It probably is time to panic, unless all the models are wrong.You seem to have that well under control without our assistance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, snjókoma said: It probably is time to panic, unless all the models are wrong. The 00z GFS actually does have me in a small panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 hi. i was supposed to fly to key west tomorrow from ewr but that airport isn't an option until friday. i'm on an amtrak train to bwi for an 8 am flight. i need your thoughts and prayers. thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 20" euro versus 2" GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I shoulda went to bed before the 0z suite came out Oh well, at least I just heard some pingers on the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Model and Obs threads are junked with clutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: You're good people, so please don't take this as me coming at you. I'm not sure how people are defining crush job. I was certainly excited with the earlier runs but I never expected anything more than 6 or 8 max. Despite what the models say, that's just not how climo seems to work here (aside from the northerner and westerners). We get too caught up in model runs IMO. A "consensus" can be wrong just as it can be right. It has been over two years. Two years since we've had a widespread warning event. We're on the cusp of one in the last third of March after a truly horrendous season. Instead of joy at this fact, there's a pall of hand wringing and panic over parts of the subforum. That's absurd. Full stop. It makes no sense whatsoever, especially when there are reports of thundersnow and sleet to our SW, a rapidly deepening low to our SE, and a funnel of cold air that's going to make it hard for us to ping all day tomorrow--March 21st. Tomorrow could absolutely underwhelm. I get upset with those who think crap raining from the sky is chocolate. But it's just wild to me how out of whack we can let us get ourselves and we generally know more about wx than the public. It's infuriating to me that the thing we seem to be best at is racing to the bottom. I'm going to enjoy whatever happens tomorrow unless I get dry slotted, and do some epic post afterward. What people say or do or feel here isn't going to take away my joy of seeing snow imby after months of chasing it all over the country. I really hope we produce. I really hope we enjoy. You actually just calmed me down significantly with this very level-headed post. Isn't that the opposite of what you're trying to do, Grim Reaper? Honestly, I enjoyed snow more before I found this forum, but I now GREATLY enjoy the chase more. It's a fair trade off, but it's like heroin. I'm always chasing that next high. The 12z euro was the best damn smack I've had in over two years, but these other dealers like the NAM and the GFS are serving up some real bunk ish and I'm starting to tweak. I'm tweaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Color me skeptical but I’d be surprised the Euro being off by over .5” qpf 12 hours from go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, Grothar of Herndon said: Model and Obs threads are junked with clutter wouldnt of been that way if the Models werent junked with clutter tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Okay in all seriousness, not feeling too good about this one for here at least. I can see the favored areas from today adding another 4-5”, but those who didn’t get much accums, will probably end up with 3-4” storm total. Not bad for March, but would be a storm fail. Before I get **** on, this is just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NattyBo Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 It’s kinda funny to me how many posters here are intent on ****ting on folks who are pointing out that this is trending pretty badly last minute. In fact it’s pretty hypocritical. Weren’t a lot of the same posters gassed up when certain “big” Mets came here and asked if we were “ready for a historic storm?” I don’t post a lot because I don’t know anything. I come here to learn, but the constant bickering about ‘bad’ posters, and endless replying to them without really commenting on what they said substantively is a bad look. I’m not panicked, I’m not upset. Disappointed obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Even if the drool-worthy 8"-12" inch totals bust low...as long as they don't bust below 5 inches, I can deal with that. If we do get less than that, however...that would mean we still technically would not have had a Warning-level event verify in most of the forum since 2016. That, for me, would be double disappointment, smh Runs have me a little depressed, but...what can ya do? If the rest of the winter hadn't been plagued with so many near-misses, it wouldn't be so bad. But this would be far worse than those because we would have literally been within 12 hours of getting warning-level snow. That would suck...but again...what can ya do? Smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I guess I better go delete my Facebook post about a big storm coming. I waited until this evening to make so it would be safe. Oops.. Off to bed. Long day at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: wouldnt of been that way if the Models werent junked with clutter tonight What can we do. First rule of weather in our area is we suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Alright, I’m going to bed. Far too much panicking is cluttering things and honestly, the radar returns south of us that looked incredible have kind of tapered off some, so I’m not gonna stay up for a gentle snow. Hope I wake up tomorrow morning to some serious snows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I need 11” to hit the NWS updated forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Come on, folks, buck up. It's time to leave the model woes behind and get to the next business at hand, radar hallucinations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Lucy got us good this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I still like 4-8” for DC/inner burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I think we should blame the lead wave. Too juiced up. It robbed all the moisture. lolz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I will say it is a bit perplexing as to why LWX is upping their totals right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: I will say it is a bit perplexing as to why LWX is upping their totals right now. Yeah I was thinking the same thing... I guess time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NattyBo Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Haha, sometimes the light breaks away from the darkness I enjoy snow just as I did before I found this place, but I place a lot more of a premium on production than I once did. I do less work with the models than I used to in winter and that's a shame. Honestly, a lot of the things I joke about are more a commentary on the absurdity of this place (during winter) than anything else. I love it but we're a very strange bunch. Except the difference is you're just looking at computer models that are swaying back and forth for an event that's already underway and those other posters were excited to hear trained professionals show excitement at the prospect of a historic event and explain why they saw the potential. I just don't see why anyone would be upset right now. 7am tomorrow? Maybe. Noon tomorrow if we're snizzle across the region? Sure. But right now? When the storm is taking shape? And we already know the inherent difficulties in forecasting exact SLP track, banding, and dry slots? The point was that a lot of the same people that were excited when HM posted that are the same people who are jumping all over people with the “hah! What did you expect!? More than a few inches in March?” Acting like there was no legit reason to expect more than what is now being modeled. There has always been a nasty groupthink/pile on facet that certain posters here seem to enjoy. That’s my 2 cents as someone who reads almost every day and posts far less. You can see from my reg date I have lurked for a while. At least certain folks have tried to explain why they think the movement on the 0z suite is noise, or pointing out other possible issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, nj2va said: I will say it is a bit perplexing as to why LWX is upping their totals right now. Honestly when I saw the 12-18" area put up earlier today I was like, huh? I mean, thats basically going all in on historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Good luck to all of you in the MA. The 00z models cut back for here also, but they may not be the final word. It seems the systems have all been complex this season, giving the models fits even close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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