DSF Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Nah, they've hit on a few other things this year (got the first Nor'Easter thus month correct as well: "Another northeast snowstorm! 1-2 feet possible" That was correct...but just not for us, lol (but the zone is "Northeast" so it covers all of that). They also accurately predicted the President's Day weekend snow we got (they were even specific and said "6 inches" we down here didn't get that much, but some folks further north did) There were one or two other instances this year as well...Point is, sometimes they can hit it down to the day and it's quite amazing Right, but I guess my point is, you keep using the word "sometimes". I think most of us, if we wanted to put the effort in to write a book, could get some things right sometimes. What would you say their accuracy rate is? Edit: And keep in mind, if you want to talk about accuracy, it's not enough to get some things right this year. They have to beat random chance year in and year out. If it's good enough to bank on, why aren't we using it as a major forecasting tool? If it's not, then it sounds like what happened is more or less random chance, maybe just slightly better than that. I'm not meaning to make this a bigger issue than it is. I have no interest in picking a meaningless internet argument. I'm just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, Scraff said: Ok. I’m torn. Reason to stay up all night, or wake in the middle for rippage? I just want a reason to sled at 2am. Just pray @WxUSAFis stil not on top of his hill naked and afraid. I can’t see that again. Ever. Eta: Let’s Gooooooo Caaaaaaaps!!! That Ovi guy. He’s pretty good. Boom!! 3-2!! Lucky for you I need my sleep, but come tomorrow at 9am I make no promises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I am waiting for someone to say the radar doesn't look good. The returns on the NC coast are not coming north... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 these 2 storms are going to join up and when they do shouldn’t we be getting a push of warm air from the south east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I am waiting for someone to say the radar doesn't look good. The returns on the NC coast are not coming north... lolI was just about to look at radar then btch about itDamn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I have some snow pics. Do they go in the obs thread or here or should I not post at all if it woo irk people that haven't snowed yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 these 2 storms are going to join up and when they do shouldn’t we be getting a push of warm air from the south east? I've had nothing but rain all day you can't rain on my parade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I have some snow pics. Do they go in the obs thread or here or should I not post at all if it woo irk people that haven't snowed yet?P o s t them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I have some snow pics. Do they go in the obs thread or here or should I not post at all if it woo irk people that haven't snowed yet? Post them in the obs thread. If people can’t get over the fact climo-favored areas got snow today, they should move. And I say that as someone who has less than 0.1” of sleet and its been freezing drizzle for the last 2 hours here (and I’m not complaining). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 The RAP has a couple of reinforcing periods of snow through the period of the next 21 hours with snow winding down but continuing after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 24 minutes ago, DSF said: Right, but I guess my point is, you keep using the word "sometimes". I think most of us, if we wanted to put the effort in to write a book, could get some things right sometimes. What would you say their accuracy rate is? Edit: And keep in mind, if you want to talk about accuracy, it's not enough to get some things right this year. They have to beat random chance year in and year out. If it's good enough to bank on, why aren't we using it as a major forecasting tool? If it's not, then it sounds like what happened is more or less random chance, maybe just slightly better than that. I'm not meaning to make this a bigger issue than it is. I have no interest in picking a meaningless internet argument. I'm just sayin'. No issue at all, good sir! I get your skepticism, acrually. But I've followed the Almanac for a few years now, and I've seen enough "hits" to be convinced that whatever formula they use...it can be accurate at times...I think the specific dates and type of storm they can mail down takes some of the "random chance" out of it. So perhaps not accurate enough to say "It's 100% accurate" Now, I don't know enough math to score their accuracy rate, but...by observation, it's apparent that they have a formula of some sort that works some of the time. It's just something you can use to kind of...keep an eye on a certain period of time... Now, the Old Farmer's Almanac boasts a claim of like 80%, but the regular one isn't as bold, lol I personally take all their predictions with a grain of salt. But when something pops up in the long range that corresponds to one of their dates, I watch with even more anticipation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I have some snow pics. Do they go in the obs thread or here or should I not post at all if it woo irk people that haven't snowed yet? Not yet...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Someone in the other thread mentioned Mitch and I had noticed he hadn't posted in a while but was surprised to see his account closed. Anyone know what happened? Living close to BWI myself I liked having a smart forecaster IMBY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 The RAP calls for about 10 more inches across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 No issue at all, good sir! I get your skepticism, acrually. But I've followed the Almanac for a few years now, and I've seen enough "hits" to be convinced that whatever formula they use...it can be accurate at times...I think the specific dates and type of storm they can mail down takes some of the "random chance" out of it. So perhaps not accurate enough to say "It's 100% accurate" Now, I don't know enough math to score their accuracy rate, but...by observation, it's apparent that they have a formula of some sort that works some of the time. It's just something you can use to kind of...keep an eye on a certain period of time... Now, the Old Farmer's Almanac boasts a claim of like 80%, but the regular one isn't as bold, lol I personally take all their predictions with a grain of salt. But when something pops up in the long range that corresponds to one of their dates, I watch with even more anticipation!LolIt's the same as astrology dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Where the he!! is Jeb. Time to get this party started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Good evening weenies. Does round 2 still look like a whiff to the southeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 The thing that was great about the 12z euro is not only does it give us 1-2 feet it screws over Boston. Icing on the cake so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 One thing the Philly eagles are good at... half the players have been running from the cops their whole life. Not surprising they run super fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, George BM said: Good evening weenies. Does round 2 still look like a whiff to the southeast? Yeah, expect sunny skies tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Too early to call this a HECS? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 8 minutes ago, Jandurin said: Lol It's the same as astrology dude I'm not so sure...(and astrology is based around star and such, right?) The Almanac has a formula of some sort. And again, it gets specifics right (and often the very date range (usually 3-5 days). So they must look at at a variety of things, but it's just amazing when they hit it right on the nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Philadelphia Snow said: Too early to call this a HECS? Lol Shhhhh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 8 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: One thing the Philly eagles are good at... half the players have been running from the cops their whole life. Not surprising they run super fast. You trying to step up your game from idiot to scumbag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Almanac I think matches a winter by solar and other factors then date-shifts an analogue or set of analogues from similar lunar dates. For example, let's say you think this will be like the winter of 1913-14 for solar and whatever other reasons you based analogues on. But 1914 has lunar dates that are (just looked this up) ten days later than this year. Then you just take the weather events from Jan 11 1914 for Jan 1 2018, etc etc. Not endorsing their method, but that's approximately what they do, maybe they have more than one analogue year and combine the records. (this was a hypothetical example that I picked, not saying I know what analogue years they considered, because I don't, but 1914 relative to solar cycles about the same as 2018). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Might be time for you to turn off the computer and go to bed. Better yet, just throw it out the window. I have no idea what he's trying to do. Maybe it's best he's just banned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Don’t come to Maryland tomorrow. We are closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 4-3 Caps! 5 minutes to go. Huge 2 points if our defense can hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VA Mad Man Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You trying to step up your game from idiot to scumbag? That dude (WeathermanB) is an oxygen thief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 40 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: One thing the Philly eagles are good at... half the players have been running from the cops their whole life. Not surprising they run super fast. Goodnight sweet prince Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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