CoachLB Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 1 minute ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Ok, but explain how I'm not even under an Advisory while 20-25 miles south they are under a Warning ? That would be the sharpest cutoff in the history of snowstorms. That's a good question. Map just updated with some advisories in Indiana. Wilmington also has some strange criteria for southern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 I swear the nws in indy hates winter storm warnings. What the hell. Just says 2-5 inches now most conservative office ever. So the streak continues. Been since March 1, 2015 since last winter storm warning here in Indy and metro counties. Dont get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 The crying with this is going to be glorious.Sent from my SM-G925T using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 I'm not too upset. I was never very confident in this storm given how narrow the band of snow is. I'm just glad I saw 4" the other day. I think I'm ready for spring now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Currently 50 at DVN and 51 at MLI... Could have ~12"+ there by this time tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Man if hrrr is right my county needs to be upgraded to a WSW. Going to be a major nail biter here. I'm right on the southern edge of the warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Just as I was about to throw in the towel, the nam bros pull me back into it. Bumped NE and wetter overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 1 hour ago, CoachLB said: Cleared out a chunk of SW Ohio counties. Few advisories and a warning. And 18z NAM promptly comes back north some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Pretty huge difference between the hrrr & the nam. Not sure what to think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Crazy how in this day and age of excellent technology, it seems impossible to forecast weather sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 This is the MO of winter 17-18. Just bring on the severe weather months already so that there's something worth tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 57 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Currently 50 at DVN and 51 at MLI... Could have ~12"+ there by this time tomorrow. The 20-degree dewpoint will certainly help get those temps down in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2018 Author Share Posted March 23, 2018 1 hour ago, zinski1990 said: I swear the nws in indy hates winter storm warnings. What the hell. Just says 2-5 inches now most conservative office ever. So the streak continues. Been since March 1, 2015 since last winter storm warning here in Indy and metro counties. Dont get it Always the possibility of an upgrade later. In fact I would say there's a reasonable possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 2 hours ago, CoachLB said: Cleared out a chunk of SW Ohio counties. Few advisories and a warning. 2 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Interesting that the county I'm in (Wayne County, IN) has been dropped but the county to the north is under a Watch, county to the West is under a Watch, county to the south is under an Advisory. Seriously, how can the county to the north be under a Watch ? Does anyone else find that map odd in Eastern IN ? Oh yeah, and I'm not under even an Advisory while 2 counties south is under a Warning ! Is this better? IND/IWX cancelled the Watch to your north and the advisory matches up pretty well with the lolNAM cutoff, disregarding the amounts and focusing on placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 So it's NAM and Euro vs. the GFS as far as IN is concerned. Winter advisory for me. Maybe I'll get 3 inches of snow like the other day, which then melted by afternoon. Would like to see some thundersnow as was mentioned as a possibility by IWXwx but will have to look at upcoming 18z and 00z runs to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Gfs comes North a tad as well. Last minute shifts never fail to show up this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: Gfs comes North a tad as well. Last minute shifts never fail to show up this winter It didn't shift north, nor did the NAM. It all revolves around saturation. Both had better saturation, thus snows further north. It seems the past 2 days 6/18z runs have had better saturation and 0/12z runs worse. My guess is it might have to do with data being ingested, with fresh data for on-hour runs and not so much on off-hour runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 I guess I can expect anything from nothing to 3-6". I'm leaning towards nothing but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 DVN had an excellent AFD noting the possible caveats in this setup and what's working for it. They did not that pressure fall patterns are supporting a low track compromise between 12z euro and 12z gfs. Models def have juiced up the southern edge of the snow band which could be the result of dynamic cooling. Hrrr continues to be quite bullish with big totals here but not getting my hopes up.....yet....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: Currently 50 at DVN and 51 at MLI... Could have ~12"+ there by this time tomorrow. Yeah it has been sort of a strange day, as it felt pretty nice outside with the warm late March sun despite the breezy east winds. Definitely didn't have the feel that a big snowstorm was incoming. 100 years ago you would have no idea about what was about to go down. Encouraged to the see the Euro correct back northeast. Sort of riding the northeast edge of the heavier amounts here on most of the guidance. Don't think we'll be in the heaviest axis, but I'm still gonna go bullish and go with 8-10" for here. I'll go with that for the QC as well, but they have a good chance to top that. 10-14" looks likely wherever the convective bands setup and pivot. EDIT: Latest RAP shows 1.1" here through noon tomorrow, with heavy snow still falling. Noice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 36 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Yeah it has been sort of a strange day, as it felt pretty nice outside with the warm late March sun despite the breezy east winds. Definitely didn't have the feel that a big snowstorm was incoming. 100 years ago you would have no idea about what was about to go down. Encouraged to the see the Euro correct back northeast. Sort of riding the northeast edge of the heavier amounts here on most of the guidance. Don't think we'll be in the heaviest axis, but I'm still gonna go bullish and go with 8-10" for here. I'll go with that for the QC as well, but they have a good chance to top that. 10-14" looks likely wherever the convective bands setup and pivot. EDIT: Latest RAP shows 1.1" here through noon tomorrow, with heavy snow still falling. Noice. I hope your area gets crushed, you seem to miss out on the biggies far too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 The hrrr gives over a foot to parts of Iowa by tomorrow around noon with it still snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 10 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: The hrrr gives over a foot to parts of Iowa by tomorrow around noon with it still snowing Yeah looking very bullish. The convective elements with that main surge after 12z looks freakin' sick. Big question is just how are LSRs gonna play out. Warm ground and marginal boundary layer temps will play a role, but with the convective snowfall potential that could more than compensate for that where it occurs. 10:1 may be a good baseline to use for areas that get in on the heaviest convective snowfall, with LSRs <8:1 outside of the highest snowfall rates. If ground and boundary layer temps were more winterlike I'd be on board for 14"+ in that main band. Latest RAP showing 2" lollies over eastern IA, with precip still ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 7 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Yeah looking very bullish. The convective elements with that main surge after 12z looks freakin' sick. Big question is just how are LSRs gonna play out. Warm ground and marginal boundary layer temps will play a role, but with the convective snowfall potential that could more than compensate for that where it occurs. 10:1 may be a good baseline to use for areas that get in on the heaviest convective snowfall, with LSRs <8:1 outside of the highest snowfall rates. If ground and boundary layer temps were more winterlike I'd be on board for 14"+ in that main band. Latest RAP showing 2" lollies over eastern IA, with precip still ongoing. Yeah, as several AFDs have mentioned, would think there’ll be some thundersnow tomorrow, especially out west towards you. Also could be some giant flake sizes. Can’t wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 Quick question here. Whats the timing looking like on the heaviest snows along the I39/I74 corridors. Going to be driving through tomorrow and hoping to not the worst stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 24, 2018 Author Share Posted March 24, 2018 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: Yeah it has been sort of a strange day, as it felt pretty nice outside with the warm late March sun despite the breezy east winds. Definitely didn't have the feel that a big snowstorm was incoming. 100 years ago you would have no idea about what was about to go down. Encouraged to the see the Euro correct back northeast. Sort of riding the northeast edge of the heavier amounts here on most of the guidance. Don't think we'll be in the heaviest axis, but I'm still gonna go bullish and go with 8-10" for here. I'll go with that for the QC as well, but they have a good chance to top that. 10-14" looks likely wherever the convective bands setup and pivot. EDIT: Latest RAP shows 1.1" here through noon tomorrow, with heavy snow still falling. Noice. Hope you and Hawkeye cash in nicely Meanwhile, I might suggest a virga watch for my area if this is on the right track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 I'd just like to say kudos to the folks here, as a winter storm bearing down that could give some the biggest snows in recent memory, some getting shafted, some on the line, for not crashing the whole board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Hope you and Hawkeye cash in nicely Meanwhile, I might suggest a virga watch for my area if this is on the right track. I swear as the sunset I could see the cutoff forming about 30 miles to my SW lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 Hrrr def seems to be struggling with precip type to. Has rain here tomorrow afternoon. Not buying it yet unless the low ends up tracking more north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 27 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: I swear as the sunset I could see the cutoff forming about 30 miles to my SW lol. knowing my luck it will be like 5 miles south of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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