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March 23-24 Winter Storm


Hoosier

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3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

New Euro alarmingly southwest compared to it's past 10 runs.  QC 10", 3" here, and 0" about 20 miles northeast of here.  The southern/western QC metro has had two warning criteria events this season while we haven't had one, so this would be pretty irritating lol.  

It's almost obnoxiously south.  Wow.

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I would LOVE if 0z euro verified! But not getting my hopes up. Crazy we are less than 24hrs from the event and still plenty of uncertainty. Def a shift south today. Curious to see if 12z holds this trend or if it corrects back north. NWS offices are going to have a field day tonight with headlines 

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Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

DVN probably thought they had this one pretty much dialed in.  The model consensus had been very consistent with the heaviest snow band laying down just sw of Dubuque.  Tonight, there must have been a few "CRAP" yells in the office.

Models have been awful all winter, so even after them being so consistent with this thing up until tonight no one should be surprised.  Especially when dealing with a 20 mile wide band of heavy snow.  

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The energy is just moving onshore now, so maybe the partial sampling made a difference.

The euro is super-juiced.  My biggest snowfall this winter dropped only 0.31" of precip.  The 00z euro is spitting out 1.4", all snow.  If that actually verifies, it could be among the highest qpf snow events in my lifetime.

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2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The energy is just moving onshore now, so maybe the partial sampling made a difference.

The euro is super-juiced.  My biggest snowfall this winter dropped only 0.31" of precip.  The 00z euro is spitting out 1.6", all snow.  If that actually verifies, it could be among the highest qpf snow events in my lifetime.

That would be pretty sweet if you could get your first footer out of this.  :snowing:

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This one is tough to figure.  Given the big mesoscale influences involved, you would think the globals may be at a bit of a disadvantage in pinpointing that.  But the NAM, a model that should handle that better, has been having a very hard time with consistency.  

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This one is tough to figure.  Given the big mesoscale influences involved, you would think the globals may be at a bit of a disadvantage in pinpointing that.  But the NAM, a model that should handle that better, has been having a very hard time with consistency.  

Yeah usually by now you start to weigh the CAMs/high-res models more, but with all the inconsistencies from run to run it's probably best to just blend everything lol.  My gut feeling is pretty much garbage at this point, but I think the Euro adjusted a tad too far southwest tonight.  

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2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah usually by now you start to weigh the CAMs/high-res models more, but with all the inconsistencies from run to run it's probably best to just blend everything lol.  My gut feeling is pretty much garbage at this point, but I think the Euro adjusted a tad too far southwest tonight.  

Well gem did it to. So may not be totally far fetched even if it isn't always the most reliable model. I think we are all wishcasting a bit here. Lol. We shall see what 12z runs show. Wish it could be a more spread the wealth event for us all

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3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Well gem did it to. So may not be totally far fetched even if it isn't always the most reliable model. I think we are all wishcasting a bit here. Lol. We shall see what 12z runs show. Wish it could be a more spread the wealth event for us all

Yeah sure would be nice if this wasn't such a narrow swath of heavy snow.  Makes the forecasting aspect pretty interesting and exciting, but also pretty frustrating from a IMBY perspective.  

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2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah sure would be nice if this wasn't such a narrow swath of heavy snow.  Makes the forecasting aspect pretty interesting and exciting, but also pretty frustrating from a IMBY perspective.  

Nightmare for forecasters esp since watches really need to be upgraded to warnings at this point. Think we will see at least the central portion upgrade to warning maybe with the edges remaining watches until 12z runs come out and may have a better idea of heavy snow swath

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35 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

00z euro.... slightly sw on eastern end, big sw jump over Iowa.  Really clobbers CR/IC, while taking everything away from Dubuque.

This couldn't possibly end up even farther sw than this, could it?!?

ecmwf_acc_snow_illinois_48.thumb.png.42c151d75ac93f1bddf3615408997fd9.png

Wowzers...so much for a quick glance before heading back to bed. But yea, that's a notable shift SW for sure, but seems to be a trend this season (at least for the bigger storms)

As a southerner, and this being my first official winter in the midwest, I'm pretty excited to experience my first upper end snow event, of course this heavy wet snow, along with gusty winds, brings back the ole' Gulf of Mexico large winter storms, with high liquid to low snow ratios, but can do so much short-term damage due to the weight! Saturday is def. looking like quite the scene around these parts. 

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2 minutes ago, ams30721us said:

Wowzers...so much for a quick glance before heading back to bed. But yea, that's a notable shift SW for sure, but seems to be a trend this season (at least for the bigger storms)

As a southerner, and this being my first official winter in the midwest, I'm pretty excited to experience my first upper end snow event, of course this heavy wet snow, along with gusty winds, brings back the ole' Gulf of Mexico large winter storms, with high liquid to low snow ratios, but can do so much short-term damage due to the weight! Saturday is def. looking like quite the scene around these parts. 

QC looks like it could end up being ground zero for the heaviest snowfall with this.  I'll be on the east side of the QC for most of the day on Sat, so even if we end up on the northeast side of things here in Erie I'll maybe get to experience a good taste of that heavy band.

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FWIW, the 00z HREF (new SSEO) is farther northeast than globals through 12z Saturday. The HREF is a blend of all the various high res WRFs, including 3km NAMnest. I haven't been tracking how it's performed out here, but have read that it anecdotally performed well for the series of noreasters this month.

A possible explanation for high res models being northeast of globals consensus is that convection may be affecting the globals somewhat since they parameterize it and don't explicitly forecast convection. It does look like there will be a fair amount of upright convection closer to the low. Convection can certainly rob moisture at times, but I've also seen it where it results in cutting off precip closer to SLP and/or banding even closer to SLP center. A sharp cutoff on northeast side of snow is a given with this setup, but perhaps the globals, especially the Euro, are overdoing it tonight. If the mass fields are somewhat similar, then the precip shield being farther southwest on globals may only be partially explained by dry air effects.

Certainly a very challenging forecast.245d397d54c29061a5fd7238852e8905.jpg21928eaf976e1a2dcad8fa86fcf7d810.jpg

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Unless the NAM is onto something think I'm gonna struggle down here for my first warning criteria snow of the season.  06Z GFS has nudged back a bit NE but cuts off the big snow just to my SW by 10-20 miles.  Low levels seem to saturate by mid-morning but because the event may be mostly during the daylight hours think I'm gonna have to contend with warm air between 700-800mb's for awhile.  It could get sketchy.  Maybe the 00Z runs with sampling will be able to narrow down the track due to strength but these warm tongues, especially during the day this time of year can get aggressive.  1-3 of slopfeast right now my call hoping to bust towards the NAM :weenie: 

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5 minutes ago, Baum said:

Malacka still trying to pull it north, I see. Think Chicago Storm and RC pretty much got this one down as does most guidance. I'll be watching as it looks like a fun one.

Hey either way, it's all good. After all, it is almost April, and Chicagoland already had it's big snow for the season.

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