CoalCityWxMan Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Can’t remenebr being in the bullseye 5 days out and still being in the bullseye 48 hours out (especially this winter)...fingers crossed. Would be nice if this storm would be more spread the wealth but oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 ^ typically those surprises involve rainstorms becoming snowstorms. Here, the models have been fairly aligned and consistent with placement. Meaning, over a 50 mile span from NE to SW you can go from a half inch of slush to 6-7". I'm on the wrong side of that line. But fun to follow one last storm potential for the season irregardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 27 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Sitting in the 7-10" forecast by DVN at the moment. If today's guidance continues the trends I'll definitely start to get pretty excited. Yep, I have been trying to keep quiet after my last start threat debacle within 24 hours lol, but the remarkable consistency and the evolution and track, and the fact that even the hi-res data like the Bamms,Rgem, and RPM are also pretty consistent with the path and amounts, makes me pretty optimistic. This may be the most significant of the season, with not only amounts, but the fact with that strong easterly fetch, winds will be an issue with this heavy, wet snow so visibilities Saturday morning, along with power outages could make for an interesting end to the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Will be close for those of us on the northern fringe including most of the southern burbs. A 25 mile shift will take a location from a slushy inch or two into a solid storm. Proverbial “rich get richer” if the current line holds true through Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 This is looking like a nice one around here. DVN has a nice swath of 7-10” routhly from independence, IA to sterling, IL. I think that may be a hair too north as the overnight guidance is generally a 0.5-1 county south of th forecast. I think I sit in a good spot here. If this transpires, this is gonna be the weirdest statistically average season I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Check out the gradient progged for Saturday in southern Illinois. Goes from 70 degrees, 3 counties north drops to 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 22, 2018 Author Share Posted March 22, 2018 3 hours ago, Chicago WX said: Puts me now on the NE fringes...though probably not a bad place to be right now. With how narrow the snow band will be, not sure I'd feel comfortable until go time. Should be an interesting one to watch unfold. Crazy to think how the Midwest winter paradise that is LAF has a shot to pull off 2 big late March storms only 5 years apart... if things hold relatively steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 22, 2018 Author Share Posted March 22, 2018 NAM really tries to screw the Quad Cities with warm air aloft, especially the 3 km version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 I was just looking at that. I'm waiting until 00Z runs tonight before getting too excited. There's a lot of above freezing temps flirting with the line. Certainly could be a nail biter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Im not feeling too confident about this one. I have a feeling the heaviest snow will be to the south and west of me. If i had to make a guess I would say 1-3" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 I was just looking at that. I'm waiting until 00Z runs tonight before getting too excited. There's a lot of above freezing temps flirting with the line. Certainly could be a nail biter.I got 8 inches night before last and even with temps in the 30s and dews well below freezing and the sun really not breaking out till late it was almost all gone by last evening so be prepared for that. It was great to look at for awhile though, a real plastering.Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Yeah, my 4 was gone by 3pm. I don't mind not shoveling, especially this stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 1 minute ago, Jackstraw said: Yeah, my 4 was gone by 3pm. I don't mind not shoveling, especially this stuff! You must have had some sunshine yesterday because I had 4 also and there was plenty left this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Just now, Snowless in Carrollton said: You must have had some sunshine yesterday because I had 4 also and there was plenty left this morning. Sun was out by 10am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Barring any major shifts with the main band axis, things look to be lining up well within the WSWatch locations for 4"+ amounts in a 100-150 mile swath in and north of the QCA into west-central IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 22, 2018 Author Share Posted March 22, 2018 Gun to my head, I wouldn't go more than 1-2" here at this point. Wouldn't take that much of a shift to quickly ramp up to several inches though. Took a peek at the SREF and over half the members are in the 6-10" range (and not limited to one particular member group as some ARW members are high/low and some NMB members are high/low), but it's not something overwhelming like >75% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 12z RGEM is dumping by late Friday night near I-80 corridor l80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 A shut-out at ORD and a T here seems like a good call. Sharp gradient as you head south, with 6-9"+ probably in the main axis, and placement in the vicinity of the 12/29 and 2/5 events...maybe a bit north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Wiper mode is in full affect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 ^ normally, I'm full in on your calls. But landscaper just came through on spring clean-up pretty much guarantees enough heavy wet snow and wind to litter the yard with branches and what not. Karma screams a close to event 35 mile shift northeast in metro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 1 minute ago, Baum said: ^ normally, I'm full in on your calls. But landscaper just came through on spring clean-up pretty much guarantees enough heavy wet snow and wind to litter the yard with branches and what not. Karma screams a close to event 35 mile shift northeast in metro... I hear ya, I cleaned and prepared the snowblower for summer storage last sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 11 minutes ago, Baum said: ^ normally, I'm full in on your calls. But landscaper just came through on spring clean-up pretty much guarantees enough heavy wet snow and wind to litter the yard with branches and what not. Karma screams a close to event 35 mile shift northeast in metro... Not happening with this one. Too much blocking-ish east with the trough/departing east coast system, which will definitely keep this one south of here..and slowly weakening with time and eastward extent. Question is how far south...GGEM/RGEM/ECMWF are a complete miss for pretty much the entire metro and most of the CWA, with it diving further south. GFS/NAM are more northerly, but still miss a decent portion of the metro with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Yikes, pretty impressive to see the Euro, the colder/snowier model in the short range, but Euro really likes the I-80 corridor around the QC, dropping SE across central Illinois and Indiana, meanwhile as stated above the GFS/NAM are a bit further north with the heavier band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 2 hours ago, ams30721us said: 12z RGEM is dumping by late Friday night near I-80 corridor l80 Looks like maybe some convective feedback with the low? Not sure what effect this would have though, if any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 The euro is very gradually weakening/narrowing the snow band and sagging it southward. At 48 hrs, the GFS has a 1001 mb low east-northeast of Kansas City, while the euro has a ~1003 mb low south of KC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 At this rate, I'm wondering if anyone in Ohio gets more than an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 6 hours ago, Chambana said: Check out the gradient progged for Saturday in southern Illinois. Goes from 70 degrees, 3 counties north drops to 40. Impressive...40+ degree difference between Northern Champaign and parts of MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 The nam spreads much more snow further north, looks good for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Snow band significantly further north on the 18z nam. Heavy snow is now up to Franklin county in Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 22, 2018 Author Share Posted March 22, 2018 18z NAM brings precip way farther north. The saturation/low level dry air issue is going to play havoc I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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