March 23-24 Winter Storm

[cyclone77]

The snow portion of this system is about as thread-the-needle as it gets, but those that can find a way to get in the main band look to get thumped pretty nicely.  Being in, or near the main band this far out is more than likely not a good thing lol.

EDIT:  LMAO @ GEM with 2ft of snow near Sterling, and a DAB at MLI.  

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

It’s been a long time since we’ve seen a late March snowstorm around here. Bring it on lol

What did you get in the March 2015 storm around the same date?

[snowstormcanuck]

You know it's a hell of North Atlantic block when even the SE MI snow magnet is powerless.

[Chicago Storm]

22 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Looks like a rainer.

Or a miss south now.

[CoalCityWxMan]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

What did you get in the March 2015 storm around the same date?

I only had 1.4” IMBY. Almost completely forgot about that since it was such a letdown for me 

[OHweather]

I’ll be in SE Ohio this weekend.  Wasn’t expecting any sort of snow, but wouldn’t argue if the GEM or Euro panned out.  I suppose I’ll have to watch this one. 

[Malacka11]

NAM 12km 00Z is significantly farther north and, it seems to me, stronger as well.

[Hoosier]

Biggest thing on the NAM is how it is much more generous with spreading precip north/east.  The surface low position at 84 hours is not that far off from the other models.

[CoalCityWxMan]

4 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

NAM 12km 00Z is significantly farther north and, it seems to me, stronger as well.

Definitely a good sign the nam is on board with a stronger/less suppressed solution, even though it’s far out. 

[mimillman]

9 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Biggest thing on the NAM is how it is much more generous with spreading precip north/east.  The surface low position at 84 hours is not that far off from the other models.

NAM at 84 hours is always amped and north. If it looks like this in 48 hours, then it's something to write home about.

Still think someone in the sub forum will see something significant from this. Whether that's Chicago or Milwaukee or Indy or the QC is still up in the air, but I definitely do not believe this is just rain.

[CoalCityWxMan]

00z GFS agrees with the NAM is seems. Further north/stronger than 18z. Never good to be in bullseye this far out but let's see.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

0Z GEM is south.

[cyclone77]

And the award for this winter's weeniest model run within 100hrs of the event for this area goes to tonight's GEM.  Model porn at it's finest.

[King James]

The wild and crazy GEM clown map.  Soak it in... probably a good chance there won't be another one this good

Fwiw I always check out Skilling’s weekly forecast just to see his approach. He has all snow in the forecast for Saturday


.

[Malacka11]

 

29 minutes ago, King James said:

Fwiw I always check out Skilling’s weekly forecast just to see his approach. He has all snow in the forecast for Saturday


.

See that's always the thing: even if it doesn't actually happen, you have to enjoy the forecasting.

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, King James said:

Fwiw I always check out Skilling’s weekly forecast just to see his approach. He has all snow in the forecast for Saturday


.

That seems reasonable  (assuming it actually precipitates in Chicago lol). Thermal profiles seem just cold enough to maintain frozen even during the daytime hours, though it's possible accumulation rates would be hurt a bit then outside of heavier bands.

[Hoosier]

GEM is huge again.

[mimillman]

12z GFS notable shift north, and CMC is back to a significant storm for northern Illinois. 

Sweet spot looks to be QC down towards Champaign right now. This is a real opportunity for the subform, not sure why some are discounting this as rain or missing to the south.

[pondo1000]

53 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

GEM is huge again.

Any map? 

[beavis1729]

2 hours ago, pondo1000 said:

Any map? 

[hawkeye_wx]

[CoalCityWxMan]

6 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Could be the biggest storm of the season for many, hopefully it doesn't trend the wrong way as we get closer.

[OHweather]

Timing isn’t quite optimal in southern OH during the afternoon and evening and temps are really marginal...Euro is best with temps near 32 under the heaviest band during the day, but the gfs and CMC are warmer...it’d take some heavy rates to pull off cooling to near freezing mid afternoon...I’m setting my optimistic expectations at a narrow swath of 3-6” somewhere this far to the east if it pans out.  It’ll be a very wet snow and it could be fun, and I’ll be in SE OH on Saturday so I’m continuing to watch it.  

[CoalCityWxMan]

[Hoosier]

Power outage potential too with wind gusts possibly 30-40 mph.

[snowlover2]

ILN has a pretty good AFD just updated about an hour ago concerning this storm.

Quote

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
336 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018



.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
In a northwest flow aloft, our region will be between weak systems
to our northeast and southwest on Friday. Surface high pressure will
remain in place, and with sunshine, temperatures will warm into the
40s.

Focus then turns to a low pressure system forecast to pass southeast
through the lower Ohio Valley and the Tennessee Valley Friday night
into Saturday night. Strong ascent in the form of a moist low level
jet will spread precipitation east/northeast into the region Friday
night into Saturday. There is an increasing signal for an
accumulating snow event, perhaps significant, for locations along
and north of the Ohio River. Many factors will play in how much snow
will fall such as surface temperatures, thermal profiles, time of
day, exact track of the low, and whether some locations along and
north of the Ohio never mix with or change over to rain. We
currently have a mix developing north of the Ohio with rain/snow
changing to rain south of the Ohio. However, strong lift/dynamic
cooling, along with a prolonged easterly flow in the low levels, may
keep sounding profiles saturated near or below the 0 degree isotherm
for points along and north of the Ohio River. Also, the strong
vertical motion will likely occur in the favorable dendritic growth
zone which will result in aggregate snowflakes. These types of
snowflakes can result in heavy snow with rapid accumulation. So,
until confidence increases in ptype and duration, have initially
went with conservative in amounts, with the caveats mentioned above
that could result in a heavier, more significant snow. This has been
placed in the HWO.

By Saturday night, the low pressure system will be pulling away to
the southeast, allowing surface high pressure to build back into the
region for Sunday. After lows between 25 and 30, highs will warm
back into the 40s on Sunday.

 

 

[OHweather]

Those are rather robust EPS probabilities, though as we’ve seen this winter even the EPS is prone to windshield wipering a bit.  6” at 10:1 might be 3 or 4” of cement with this setup, though some members, the op, Canadian, and NAM have over an inch of qpf as snow in the main band.  

[Hoosier]

I feel reasonably comfortable with like 6-10" in the main band at this point. Could get even heavier amounts somewhere but a bit hard to pinpoint.  

[Hoosier]

Raw 2m temps off the models have a strip of temps near/a touch below freezing in the main band even during peak heating on Saturday afternoon, so we might not get something completely heart attack like 6:1 ratios.  The main band might be able to manage like 9-10:1 imo  

[pondo1000]

41 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Those are rather robust EPS probabilities, though as we’ve seen this winter even the EPS is prone to windshield wipering a bit.  6” at 10:1 might be 3 or 4” of cement with this setup, though some members, the op, Canadian, and NAM have over an inch of qpf as snow in the main band.  

Hey, when/if you get a minute, can you give your arguments on why this could go further south & why it could go further north. Just curious. Thanks in advance!