Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

March 23-24 Winter Storm


Hoosier

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 473
  • Created
  • Last Reply

HRRR and especially RAP are spitting out obscene amounts of QPF.  Now a large area of 2"+ near the QC back through Iowa City on the latest run of the RAP, with precip still falling.  Models have bumped the axis a tad further northeast compared to previous runs as well.  Think I'm gonna bump my 8-10" call up to 8-12" with isolated higher amounts for both here and the QC.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Like Hawkeye said, the NAM and HRRR are getting pretty aggressive with the warm push putting the CR area in danger of mixing. Especially on the NAM, but already has a terrible forecast at 03z as it shows precip already to the MS river. Gonna be a wait and see storm, which I sure hope the HRRR is over modelling the warm push aloft.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

The models have really slowed the departure of the snows as well in the past few runs.  This was originally looking to be mostly over by early afternoon, but the lingering trowel like feature keeps it snowing through early evening now lol.  This is really starting to look extremely impressive.

Assuming the warm push doesn't mess it up. But someone is gonna cash in for sure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

The models have really slowed the departure of the snows as well in the past few runs.  This was originally looking to be mostly over by early afternoon, but the lingering trowel like feature keeps it snowing through early evening now lol.  This is really starting to look extremely impressive.

Even the Kuchera map has a 2 foot bullseye in Iowa.  Going to be interesting to see what the high end totals end up being.

snku_acc.us_mw.thumb.png.de5b3a9612724e350feef9371ebcd41b.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

East winds have really picked up over the past hour or so, and the dry/cool advection from the east has dropped the temp/dew down to 37/18.  The relative benign mild day has already transformed into a more wintry feel.  Precip should begin in a few hours.

I'm saving this one for posterity.  The 01z RAP.  Verbatim this would be 13-18" of snow for the QCA with LSRs AOB 10:1.

mjtth1.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Even the Kuchera map has a 2 foot bullseye in Iowa.  Going to be interesting to see what the high end totals end up being

The NAM has put a big scare into me by pushing the heavy snow band 1-2 counties farther northeast and putting CR into garbage sleet all night.  That would be an enormous letdown.  Could King Euro really have missed a surge of warm air at 700 mb up into east-central Iowa.

DMX just upped Mason City and Waterloo to 10-13" with isolated higher totals.

I have heard several rumbles of thunder in the last 20 minutes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

East winds have really picked up over the past hour or so, and the dry/cool advection from the east has dropped the temp/dew down to 37/18.  The relative benign mild day has already transformed into a more wintry feel.  Precip should begin in a few hours.

I'm saving this one for posterity.  The 01z RAP.  Verbatim this would be 13-18" of snow for the QCA with LSRs AOB 10:1.

mjtth1.jpg

Already fairly moist in the mid levels at DVN

KDVN.skewt.20180324_00.gif.b97b6512902e64d09bebfbb58133bb83.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The NAM has put a big scare into me by pushing the heavy snow band 1-2 counties farther northeast and putting CR into garbage sleet all night.  That would be an enormous letdown.

Hopefully it will just be some periods of mixed heavy sleet in the midst of the heavy snowfall.  With such strong forcing and lift you'd think it would fend off any warm layer trying to move in.  A totally different type of storm system, but I remember the Dec '87 blizzard brought several waves of very heavy sleet mixed in with the heavy snow.  It didn't have much of an impact on snowfall amounts.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Seeing steady sleet here at the moment and the temp is falling fast. My thermometer reads 39, down from 45. 

I look at radar and it seems CC is saying 1 of 2 things, I'm not really sure which. 1 being that the entire N portion of the band is sleet(or at least partially sleet), which I find hard to believe. Or 2(more likely) the DVN beam is just intercepting the freezing/mixing level, in which case I think it will be interesting to see how that behaves later when the switch to snow occurs.

 

bcb14344f07980ce916f77f71a2c50f7.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Already fairly moist in the mid levels at DVN

Yea...Even with it only an 18F DP at DVN, looks like precip should begin shortly with that sounding...and given radar echos are near the radar site as it is. Little wasted on virga looks likely.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...