Hoosier Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 There's the typical model disagreement on exact timing and location, but all in all, reasonable agreement on the idea of there being a potentially significant storm. The pattern in place at the time suggests that the surface low may have trouble gaining much latitude as it moves across the region, so where it ejects from the Rockies should give a pretty good idea on where it's heading. As with many late season storms, we may be dealing with marginal surface temps for snow but perhaps just cold enough for a band of significant amounts. Wind also looks to be a player and there should be a decent gradient between the approaching surface low and high pressure in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Give me +8" or 0. Anything in between is a pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 15 minutes ago, Stebo said: Give me +8" or 0. Anything in between is a pass. Very well, Stebo Henry. I agree btw. Go big (or at least semi-big) or go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 Nice temp contrast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 The LOT afd basically went against the 12z suite and says rain event on Saturday. I guess we'll see if that thinking changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 11 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The LOT afd basically went against the 12z suite and says rain event on Saturday. I guess we'll see if that thinking changes. Yep. Given the time of year, I guess it's reasonable to defer to climo, especially being 4-5 days out. Over the next 36-48 hours, LOT can adjust if needed. Even if there is a snow band somewhere (which itself is not even a guarantee at this point), it will probably be fairly narrow. Even if it occurs, you can still forecast "no snow" and have a high likelihood of being correct in a particular location. Just playing the odds right now. The expected temperature contrast is wild...with 80s in MO and 30s in N IL. Maybe that will lead to some unexpected outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Looks like a rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 GFS and GEM still showing quite a bit of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Euro continues to like this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 hours ago, mimillman said: Euro continues to like this one Meanwhile the GFS has been trying to whiff/skirt south. 12z is running now so we'll see what it has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 12z GEM looks like a good hit for LOT. GFS again farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 24 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 12z GEM looks like a good hit for LOT. GFS again farther south. GEM is huge actually. There 's a band of a good 12-18" near I-80 corridor in IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Models have the bigger snows literally 20 miles to my south and east for tonight. Would be justice if the weekend whiffs 20 miles to the north lol. My whole winter in one week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Heck of a thump from the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Well, we'll see sooner or later how it sets up. Or what if it just ends up all rain still lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: GFS isn't south, there is no storm, considering it is in the process of a nice warmup by the end of the weekend. Not sure what you are talking about. It is there, but weakens/shears more quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Hopefully the Euro has a big plastering too lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 16 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: There is no low pressure development. You can't weaken or shear more quickly for which does not exist. Guess I am seeing things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 The wild and crazy GEM clown map. Soak it in... probably a good chance there won't be another one this good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Guess I am seeing things Why engage a wet blanket? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The wild and crazy GEM clown map. Soak it in... probably a good chance there won't be another one this good That puts my winter model total at like 350 inches lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Jackstraw said: That puts my winter model total at like 350 inches lol How did you even calculate that? Like, is it per day, per event, what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 13 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The wild and crazy GEM clown map. Soak it in... probably a good chance there won't be another one this good I'll file it with the nam map that showed me getting 13" tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: How did you even calculate that? Like, is it per day, per event, what? Believe it’s sarcasm. Point is, that many, if not all of us, have huge model snowfall totals, but nothing close to it in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, pondo1000 said: Believe it’s sarcasm. Point is, that many, if not all of us, have huge model snowfall totals, but nothing close to it in reality. Oh, I was going to say lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Euro shifted the main band south. Someone in the sub form is going to see something from this, just have to give it time to sort out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 UK and Euro have also shifted sw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 hour ago, mimillman said: Euro shifted the main band south. Someone in the sub form is going to see something from this, just have to give it time to sort out. Perhaps the recent runs are biasing me a bit, but at this point I think this either is a significant hit for us or we end up on the northern periphery. The high pressure will help to drain in cold/dry air and it's hard for me to believe we see a huge lurch northward (say more than 100 miles from the Euro position) unless the models are completely mishandling the disturbance that will be responsible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Perhaps the recent runs are biasing me a bit, but at this point I think this either is a significant hit for us or we end up on the northern periphery. The high pressure will help to drain in cold/dry air and it's hard for me to believe we see a huge lurch northward (say more than 100 miles from the Euro position) unless the models are completely mishandling the disturbance that will be responsible. Tell that to the NYC crew 96 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 It’s been a long time since we’ve seen a late March snowstorm around here. Bring it on lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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