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Confidence increases for coastal storm threat along Eastern Seaboard


Typhoon Tip

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5 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Okay, I've run out of patience. I put it to the board: Glenlivet, Moscow Mule, Old Fashioned? I'm out of beer and I don't want to go out in these "severe" ( to borrow NWS' product phrasing) conditions.

Moscow mule, those aren't bad at all

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Well there's always the 18z RGEM and it's hi-res cousin....amped up pretty nicely for E MA.

Of course, there's the RAP and HRRR which are now basically T-2" events.

 

Truth is prob in between....which is the Euro, lol.

In these bizarre setups, I try to look at the actual synoptics of it. As obviously you do too. 

The Euro was very steady and less amped. NAM almost matched it at 18z. They still probably drop 6" even at BOS. They look very similar in terms of QPF.

Models are notorious for struggling with mid level banding, and just banding in general. When one looks at 7h or even 850... It'd be hard to see a scenario where eastern portions doesn't do well for a few hours.

HRRR RAP and notorious for jumping around. They are good for trends. But they have gone back and forth all day. They haven't been of much use at all. Their only purpose to me is to establish trends. Right now it's only established to me that they are both clueless. 

Haven't looked at 18z rgem and hrdpm but I will now.

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol, I was thinking it sounded like that poster

 

They loved to stand on their soapbox

No, just pointing out the realities of local tv news. bob Copeland and don kent wouldn't have a career if they were starting out today. I think that's unfortunate what an ugly business local tv news has become and how homogenized it's become.  And that's why I don't watch.  FOX, CNN and MSNBC are going through the roof but local tv continues to drop. When you tune into a boston newscast eighty percent of the people don't even have any type of new England accent. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well there's always the 18z RGEM and it's hi-res cousin....amped up pretty nicely for E MA.

Of course, there's the RAP and HRRR which are now basically T-2" events.

 

Truth is prob in between....which is the Euro, lol.

Will what does the Euro show for Eastern areas?

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well there's always the 18z RGEM and it's hi-res cousin....amped up pretty nicely for E MA.

Of course, there's the RAP and HRRR which are now basically T-2" events.

 

Truth is prob in between....which is the Euro, lol.

Reggie bringing it back.

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4 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

In these bizarre setups, I try to look at the actual synoptics of it. As obviously you do too. 

The Euro was very steady and less amped. NAM almost matched it at 18z. They still probably drop 6" even at BOS. They look very similar in terms of QPF.

Models are notorious for struggling with mid level banding, and just banding in general. When one looks at 7h or even 850... It'd be hard to see a scenario where eastern portions doesn't do well for a few hours.

HRRR RAP and notorious for jumping around. They are good for trends. But they have gone back and forth all day. They haven't been of much use at all. Their only purpose to me is to establish trends. Right now it's only established to me that they are both clueless. 

Haven't looked at 18z rgem and hrdpm but I will now.

The RAP/HRRR have been steadily cutting this storm into almost nothing all day....it's been a very steady trend...there was maybe one run that stopped the trend around 14-15z but otherwise its been literally less and less each run.

Now, I agree they can be awful, but if you're claiming to use them for trends, then you can't ignore the trend on them. The good news is they don't seem to be matching current obs all that well...they seem too dry with the initial stuff over SNE right now...so we'll see if that translates better down the road.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The RAP/HRRR have been steadily cutting this storm into almost nothing all day....it's been a very steady trend...there was maybe one run that stopped the trend around 14-15z but otherwise its been literally less and less each run.

Now, I agree they can be awful, but if you're claiming to use them for trends, then you can't ignore the trend on them. The good news is they don't seem to be matching current obs all that well...they seem too dry with the initial stuff over SNE right now...so we'll see if that translates better down the road.

Well, I'm not exactly as good at articulating this stuff as you. But that's exactly what I mean.

A trend isn't just more or less QPF. Initialization or current obs factored in also. 

That's what I mean by all over the place.

In these dry air, northern fringe storms, you will ALWAYS have the hires models overdue reflectivity and qpf in the 12 hours prior to the storm.

Now we say they cut away totals all day, I think we need to take that into account. I feel like it was massively predictable considering that.

And now they don't seem to have a grip. So that's what I mean by back and forth.

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