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Confidence increases for coastal storm threat along Eastern Seaboard


Typhoon Tip

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22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s the point. It’s not perfect, it’s the better model. 

It was getting tossed over the last day or so when it was on its own by some, I found it to be troubling when it was on the eastern side of guidance, Can never just discount it, You have to weigh it, Many times, More heavily.

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2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I think earlier this winter I was really attributing it to the progressive flow...but since that has largely changed, it does not seem much better.   But overall still better than the rest.  Hopefully it improves.

This!

 

its kind of like the “Usain Bolt” Of modeling. It was so much better than the rest of the field for so long...and of late it seems to have lost some speed...but it’s talent is still better than the rest of the modeling field..just not as impressive as it used to be..but maybe that’s just the way it seems...??? 

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19 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Regarding the Euro vs anything else...what model would anyone use? The friggin NAM was laughable as a whole this winter.  Fun to look at with amazing snow maps...they were just wrong,  GFS? Puh-leeze...  The ICON? Ukie?

The Euro isn’t infailable, but it’s  the best we got.

There are reason some stay up to see it, I mean, How many would stay up for the Nam if it came out at 1:45 am.................:lol:

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6 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

On Dover radar it looks like something is blowing up just off Ocean City....rather tucked in to the coast.

Even on satellite it looks like this thing is really starting to strengthen more. Some nice convection blossoming just north of the circulation and you have really good PVA (if I am understanding this map correctly I think these red's indicate PVA) 

padv_sf.gif?1521668280642

As the 700mb and 500mb lows continues to strengthen the system should really continue to blossom and with so much ascent precipitation should really fill in. The question just is how far north does this precipitation get?  

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4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

You make it sound like they had a nefarious aim.  There’s no excuse for a bb with this few users comparatively to perform so poorly.

Agree.

 Accuweather forums have many more users and posters than here...and they don’t crash ever.  What’s their setup/secret??  We need to employ their tech over here so this forum doesn’t crash in the future.

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There have been many reports over the course of the last year that funding for NOAA is decreasing.  You get what you pay for.  You gotta spend money folks.  You gotta pay people. the notion of starving the government certainly isn't paying off with respect to financing better and more accurate weather models. Whomever's job it is to upgrade these models needs to find out if the post office is hiring.

Ryan Hanrahan is getting hammered on the twitter machine, but he's correct to point out his forecast was better than what the government put out.

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1 minute ago, henry1978 said:

There have been many reports over the course of the last year that funding for NOAA is decreasing.  You get what you pay for.  You gotta spend money folks.  You gotta pay people. the notion of starving the government certainly isn't paying off with respect to financing better and more accurate weather models. Whomever's job it is to upgrade these models needs to find out if the post office is hiring.

Ryan Hanrahan is getting hammered on the twitter machine, but he's correct to point out his forecast was better than what the government put out.

Not to get too off topic, but it's not so much a decrease in funding (though budget cuts are constantly proposed) but it's the continuing resolutions. They keep funding static, and are felt equally across government, rather than proportional to essential functions. 

A true budget cut would be even worse than what we're going through now.

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2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I'd prefer to just say it was a bust and not try to figure out what this evening will do. Radar/satellite look good. 

There is some signs for a decent band to try and set up late this evening. I think we do get at least a small window of decent snow.

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