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Confidence increases for coastal storm threat along Eastern Seaboard


Typhoon Tip

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Wow really?  

 

You and the NWS Wiz...Im pulling for both of you.  If I see 3 inches I think that’ll be a win...but who knows lol. 

There will be a substantial gradient for sure and I did a map update a few hours ago...I did explain in my post though that I think the lower portion of these ranges would verify and the higher end of the ranges would only verify if we saw heavier snows push farther northward and also persist for a longer duration. What I also kinda noticed (and not sure if this would be a reason) but the models (and some quicker than others) sort of weaken out the initial area of low pressure and re-develop a second low quite far east of the Cape. I wonder if during this process some of these models just really cut off snow back this far west. But given how the mid-levels look to evolve I would think this initial low continues to strengthen much more as we move into the evening. It sort of appears like convection which develops over the Atlantic on the models takes precedence and models focus on this and generate the new low and robs moisture back this way. That can obviously happen but the convection modeled didn't appear to be that intense5ab2c80a86e16_3rdcallmap.jpg.c959aa1fc152e369495630cbff9b1531.jpg

 

 

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Perhaps??  

 

I respect your knowledge and expertise for sure....you know your stuff big time, but from following along here during the winter, I have to say it sure doesn’t seem that way??  

But thank you for the debate :-) and info.

I get it, it seems like there are some clunkers every now and then. But the last study I saw done showed that the Euro on average had a smaller track error and smaller intensity error for East Coast cyclones.

Until I see something refuting that, I'm going to trust that's still the case.

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5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Regarding the Euro vs anything else...what model would anyone use? The friggin NAM was laughable as a whole this winter.  Fun to look at with amazing snow maps...they were just wrong,  GFS? Puh-leeze...  The ICON? Ukie?

The Euro isn’t infailable, but it’s  the best we got.

Agree for sure. 

 

It just doesn’t seem as sharp as it did before it’s upgrade that’s all.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Agree for sure. 

 

It just doesn’t seem as sharp as it did before it’s upgrade that’s all.

 

 

I think earlier this winter I was really attributing it to the progressive flow...but since that has largely changed, it does not seem much better.   But overall still better than the rest.  Hopefully it improves.

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