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Confidence increases for coastal storm threat along Eastern Seaboard


Typhoon Tip

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Still not impressed Scott...you can kiss its arse all you want...it’s much jess impressive than it used to be period! 

 

it had 22 inches for DC yesterday...really ???  

Qualifier, it didn't have 22 inches for DC, some 3rd party snow algorithm did.

I didn't look at the models yesterday, but my guess is there were some Scooter flags in there that may have pointed to QPF being too high.

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It’s not official but evidently PHL has gotten 11.2 today.  If that’s the case the Euro was way off there as well.  It may have nailed the SNE idea but it’s doing pretty poorly from here on SW. 

They have had a great winter down there.

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It’s not official but evidently PHL has gotten 11.2 today.  If that’s the case the Euro was way off there as well.  It may have nailed the SNE idea but it’s doing pretty poorly from here on SW. 

You would have a hard time finding a model that did well with this, Just saying.

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It’s not official but evidently PHL has gotten 11.2 today.  If that’s the case the Euro was way off there as well.  It may have nailed the SNE idea but it’s doing pretty poorly from here on SW. 

Exactly.

Just pointing out it flops a lot..and more than it used too.

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

What a cruel twist on the 18z runs, to pull the rug out after being so bullish. 

I'm glad I didn't have to do a huge clean up job with our grids. 

I still think at least central CT on south will get between 6-12''. But anything over that isn't going to happen. Watching the radar and how the storm is developing and where models track the lows I find it really hard to believe we don't get a band of really heavy snow into the southern part of the state later on. May 6-8'' will be more common than 8-12'' but the HRRR just seems to want to hold in and even sag southward with the dry air...but all indications are we moistening as opposed to drying. The HRRR also doesn't really have any banding at all...or at least very minimal. Not sure if I buy that 

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Qualifier, it didn't have 22 inches for DC, some 3rd party snow algorithm did.

I didn't look at the models yesterday, but my guess is there were some Scooter flags in there that may have pointed to QPF being too high.

It was showing the QPF down there...

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6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Qualifier, it didn't have 22 inches for DC, some 3rd party snow algorithm did.

I didn't look at the models yesterday, but my guess is there were some Scooter flags in there that may have pointed to QPF being too high.

Do you honestly see no snow for CT, SE Mass etc? Will we all throw a goose egg?

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

And my point is that QPF is poorly forecast by the models, something about the upper levels may have pointed to it being too high.

That’s cool..but my point is, I’m not impressed with the model since the upgrade!  It made it worse here...maybe it’s better in Europe..but not here.  And I think there are quite a few others who share that feeling. 

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

That’s cool..but my point is, I’m not impressed with the model since the upgrade!  It made it worse here...maybe it’s better in Europe..but not here.  And I think there are quite a few others who share that feeling. 

I think you would be surprised if you actually looked on a storm by storm basis.

Every model will miss some, but the Euro misses fewer than not.

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3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

School closings for tomorrow are starting to come in.  A friend of mine works for Lynn Schools.  Just canceled school for tomorrow and all afternoon activities too...

Ugh.   I told my boss a couple of days back to expect a full day Weds and possibly a delay Thurs but that would be doubtful.  Not sure who we officially use but that seems to be the case. 

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6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I still think at least central CT on south will get between 6-12''. But anything over that isn't going to happen. Watching the radar and how the storm is developing and where models track the lows I find it really hard to believe we don't get a band of really heavy snow into the southern part of the state later on. May 6-8'' will be more common than 8-12'' but the HRRR just seems to want to hold in and even sag southward with the dry air...but all indications are we moistening as opposed to drying. The HRRR also doesn't really have any banding at all...or at least very minimal. Not sure if I buy that 

Wow really?  

 

You and the NWS Wiz...Im pulling for both of you.  If I see 3 inches I think that’ll be a win...but who knows lol. 

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5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I think you would be surprised if you actually looked on a storm by storm basis.

Every model will miss some, but the Euro misses fewer than not.

Perhaps??  

 

I respect your knowledge and expertise for sure....you know your stuff big time, but from following along here during the winter, I have to say it sure doesn’t seem that way??  

But thank you for the debate :-) and info.

 

 

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