ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Are you including CT in that? Yeah N CT will prob be watching a lot of virga too for a long time. Though they will def be snowing before 9-10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 That bastard of a german model at least isn't a lot worse. Just a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 No point in watching the radar until it's almost time to head home from work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, JC-CT said: That bastard of a german model at least isn't a lot worse. Just a little. Sour Kraut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Are you including CT in that? That's why I said earlier that your 10 inch amount will be a stretch there. 3-6 probably better idea than 6-10 imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I'll add this: expect the euro to trend better for the areas favored at 12z. Wrap it up and lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 The latest RAP did finally halt the south trend...it trended back north from the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: I'll add this: expect the euro to trend better for the areas favored at 12z. Wrap it up and lock it up. https://tinybuddha.com/blog/accepting-uncertainty-can-happy-without-answers/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: No point in watching the radar until it's almost time to head home from work. Speaking of watching the radar loop the last hour. It almost seems a surge of dry air is moving south and interacting with the north edge and eroding it south right now. From Central RI all the way west into NY. Echoes are falling apart as they try to move north. Anyone else see it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Speaking of watching the radar loop the last hour. It almost seems a surge of dry air is moving south and interacting with the north edge and eroding it south right now. From Central RI all the way west into NY. Echoes are falling apart as they try to move north. Anyone else see it? There's also this lead shortwave that is shearing out a bit, but the follow up wave exiting the Carolinas this afternoon will be the focus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Pingers mixing in with the snow now. Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: There's also this lead shortwave that is shearing out a bit, but the follow up wave exiting the Carolinas this afternoon will be the focus. Seems like the modeling is starting to focus more on the second wave and as such delaying precipitation each run. I don't know, I thought the 12z GFS looked better at h5 but the output doesn't look that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 GFS is ugly.LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: Seems like the modeling is starting to focus more on the second wave and as such delaying precipitation each run. I don't know, I thought the 12z GFS looked better at h5 but the output doesn't look that way. Man-taking the fuk it attitude. Lots of good work getting done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This should be a bit better than that one...esp for eastern areas...this one tries to tilt things a bit more vertical N-S late in the game which should favor some decent bands sneaking in eventually....the question is whether its like 3-5 or 6-10. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: GFS is ugly.LOL. GFS looks great to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 GFS is an awful model. Can't believe it's the flagship of American modeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I actually like the soundings on the GFS around 06z...some big lift right in the DGZ here. Midlevels would argue for some goodies for a few hours. The worry is that we just have shredded stuff the other 6-8 hours around that nice 3-5 hour window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: GFS looks great to me. It’s got a small area free like 10pm where it’s decent, but otherwise not really impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Yum, sleet mixed with plain rain. It's a beautiful spectrum of s*** in the good ol' CTRV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I really haven't even thought of this storm as being "today". Seems I've been watching this one for over a week. Its always been tonite (n of rte 2), if at all. The goodies are down in mid Atlantic right now For Ct thou, they gotta make a move by mid p.m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
henry1978 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 hour ago, weathafella said: I'm seeing reports of only 2-3 inches inside the Beltway despite the dramatic white house webcams from the Old executive office building. Baltimore seems to be the only urban center up and down the corridor getting anything noteworthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 14 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Seems like the modeling is starting to focus more on the second wave and as such delaying precipitation each run. I don't know, I thought the 12z GFS looked better at h5 but the output doesn't look that way. It's definitely the stronger of the two waves. If you look at WV, there is much more drying (subsidence) behind the second wave. It's more dynamic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I actually like the soundings on the GFS around 06z...some big lift right in the DGZ here. Midlevels would argue for some goodies for a few hours. The worry is that we just have shredded stuff the other 6-8 hours around that nice 3-5 hour window. There are definitely some good signals around 06z. That's the time window I've flagged for the "worst" of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Herpes came a hair northwest, but 6z was pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
henry1978 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Considering all the epic totals the models were spitting out along the megalopolis this event is busting harder than stormy daniels at the annual 4th of july coney island weenie eating contest when she finds out the weenies are only 6 inches instead of 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 This is going to be a huge bust for NWS if the models are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: This is going to be a huge bust for NWS if the Euro is correct. I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: This is going to be a huge bust for NWS if the models are correct. Or it could be a big victory if the models are wrong. But I might be biased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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