STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Can't wait for the euro to fart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: I dont see confluence over Pa Dry air; not confluence... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 9 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: Look at everything get funneled right in to PA. Confluence is like a brick wall, the energy can't go north, so as it's squeezed, the only place it can go with ease is westward into PA Those 30+ dbz have been overhead all morning.. Not one flake... Dry as a bone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Pounding on the DC/BWI area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 37/31 snow peak gust 24kt at UUU vis still over a mile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Pounding on the DC/BWI area. Chesapeake crusher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 21 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said: But it's really no different than watching sports when one is heavily vested in the outcome of his team. This is what humans do...And even crave, it seems. haha, I like that... there's scientific weather ... THEN, there's weather ...and in this case, 'weather models' as a spectator's sport - Hey, it's not a bad way of looking at it... and with the latter, the spectator nature of it... think of it this way, the word 'fan' has a root etymology in fanaticism for a reason. It's like marching out into the middle of a Soccer riot in Brazil and explaining to everyone why what they are doing is irrational - how's that workin' for ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 54 minutes ago, dendrite said: They have a mean of over 0.50" liquid up here. If you get .50" of liquid in Northfield, Im going to Agway and dropping off a 50 pound bag of chicken feed to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 8 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I would think the H7 low track over LI would be problematic in terms of drying that area out over the next few hours (at least). Would fill back in on the back side, as it slides east but I find it odd that the 12zNAM didn't indicate any dryslot in that area. Radar seems to indicate mid level dry air pushing up from south of LI... I always that being under the H7 was good? Or at least..barely to the north of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I started an obs thread. Precip has started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 What an ugly elongated POS this is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: I started an obs thread. Precip has started I started one hours ago lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: I started an obs thread. Precip has started There is one already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 BOX updated their forecast but stayed pretty conservative along the North and West of the center stage so to speak. 5" at ORH and 4" for Fitchburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 RGEM continues to be more subdued...that model has been a problem for me totally buying the bigger soltuions. It's not a total disaster like the Euro, but it's maybe a moderate 4-7 type event for BOS-PVD...though the banding sig on there looks really good, so it could be underdone somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 hours ago, klw said: 06Z 3K NAM throws down 6 inches up here. I will believe it when I am shoveling. The NAM givith and the NAM taketh away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I really am having a hard time with this. Most of me wants this out to sea and be gone. PITA storm. This is why I've posted 4 times pre-storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: RGEM continues to be more subdued...that model has been a problem for me totally buying the bigger soltuions. It's not a total disaster like the Euro, but it's maybe a moderate 4-7 type event for BOS-PVD...though the banding sig on there looks really good, so it could be underdone somewhat. At this point, with such significant changes in the short-term that we are seeing in the models, I don't really trust any of them outside of 6 hours or so. Except maybe the Euro, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 17 minutes ago, weathafella said: Pounding on the DC/BWI area. My folks live in the NW suburbs of Baltimore. Been watching the traffic cams on Baltimore and DC Beltways. That solar insulation is doing its work on the roads. Snow having a very hard time sticking on the pavement even though is coming down good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'll bang the 3k NAM...that's a crush job for E MA. It really tilts the whole baroclinic zone more N-S and allows bands to keep rotating in from the east. Wrf Btv had that idea 18z yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: I always that being under the H7 was good? Or at least..barely to the north of it H7 Low is closed as is H5 --atmosphere is equiv barotropic within that circulation when it stacks. Guidance has center passing over LI. You want to be where the temperature/moisture advections and warm/cold conveyors are at work - not at the center of it all.... You can also see here on WV imagery how the CCB wraps sinking (dry) air into the circulation and that is punching in toward SNJ and LI. Want the mid levels to close and track south/east of you - not over or to the west of you... http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/animwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Chesapeake crusher. My great uncle in Chestertown reports it's dumping on his farm. A rarity down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: At this point, with such significant changes in the short-term that we are seeing in the models, I don't really trust any of them outside of 6 hours or so. Except maybe the Euro, unfortunately. Yeah I don't trust these HRRR/RAP solutions past 6 hours that are giving me 10-14" of snow. I'd put maybe a little weight in the NAM/RPM, but just a little. I'dexpect the Euro will be closer to reality but compromise a little bit. I expect a small bump NW on the 12z run. We will see the RAP/HRRR and other guidance ramp it down I think with each cycle today. RAP/HRRR are already slowly shaving the northern edge with each run the past 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: RGEM continues to be more subdued...that model has been a problem for me totally buying the bigger soltuions. It's not a total disaster like the Euro, but it's maybe a moderate 4-7 type event for BOS-PVD...though the banding sig on there looks really good, so it could be underdone somewhat. Reggie has been abysmal this winter both too high and too low and thermals. I wouldn’t be using it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I don't trust these HRRR/RAP solutions past 6 hours that are giving me 10-14" of snow. I'd put maybe a little weight in the NAM/RPM, but just a little. I'dexpect the Euro will be closer to reality but compromise a little bit. I expect a small bump NW on the 12z run. We will see the RAP/HRRR and other guidance ramp it down I think with each cycle today. RAP/HRRR are already slowly shaving the northern edge with each run the past 2 hours. yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 For those north of about PVD-GHG...it's going to be agonizing watching the radar all day...it will be the slowest crawl northward. It may not even be snowing IMBY until 9-10pm tonight. But we could still pick up 6+ even with that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: For those north of about PVD-GHG...it's going to be agonizing watching the radar all day...it will be the slowest crawl northward. It may not even be snowing IMBY until 9-10pm tonight. But we could still pick up 6+ even with that happening. Reminds me of January 16. That didn't end well..like an inch here, 5" in Salem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: For those north of about PVD-GHG...it's going to be agonizing watching the radar all day...it will be the slowest crawl northward. It may not even be snowing IMBY until 9-10pm tonight. But we could still pick up 6+ even with that happening. Are you including CT in that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Reggie has been abysmal this winter both too high and too low and thermals. I wouldn’t be using it. I agree with you fully. It's been the worst model this winter, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Reminds me of January 16. That didn't end well..like an inch here, 5" in Salem This should be a bit better than that one...esp for eastern areas...this one tries to tilt things a bit more vertical N-S late in the game which should favor some decent bands sneaking in eventually....the question is whether its like 3-5 or 6-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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