512high Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I think E MA is going to get into some good snows. I think the bigger question mark is that zone from like SE NH to ORH. so you thinking that cutoff is dipping more south from you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I get that..and I understand your point completely. But Since it's upgrade...it's not the same for East Coast storms...I'm no pro obviously, but you don't need to be a pro to see that it's lost some of it's gusto, if you follow the weather in New England. That's my point. Certainly still the most sophisticated of the models and most powerful for sure, and Globally still scores higher than the rest, but it's off here in New England compared to how well it used to handle systems. I understand your point, but I would rather see a study on average error in track and intensity compared to the rest of guidance versus anecdotal evidence from one season. The last one I saw, it was still superior on East Coast storms as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 RPM solution for Jerry and pickles....stil snowing heavily in DE Maine at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: What's it going to be though? When we had a meh 12km run yesterday everyone latched onto the juicy 3km. Like Will said...I think the answer is somewhere in the middle...probably a little closer to the euro. It's hard to argue with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Congrats Eastport. Yea. Not sure why forecasts are so low out there...H7 track has been hitting that area hard for several runs now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I understand your point, but I would rather see a study on average error in track and intensity compared to the rest of guidance versus anecdotal evidence from one season. The last one I saw, it was still superior on East Coast storms as well. It schooled other guidance in the 3/7-8 storm...seems like that was quickly forgtten. We'll see how it does today, but I'm guessing it will come NW again even if incrementally. I could see it having a bad storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: Yea. Not sure why forecasts are so low out there...H7 track has been hitting that area hard for several runs now... 20"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: RPM solution for Jerry and pickles....stil snowing heavily in DE Maine at this point. Rpm Roll (w Da) Pope Model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think E MA is going to get into some good snows. I think the bigger question mark is that zone from like SE NH to ORH. ORH is just far enough east. I think the bigger question is that zone one town west of ORH points west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Rpm Roll (w Da) Pope Model? Yea right? It's like a ran that out of my basement. Matches my forecast map pretty damn good.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: What's it going to be though? When we had a meh 12km run yesterday everyone latched onto the juicy 3km. Like Will said...I think the answer is somewhere in the middle...probably a little closer to the euro. I’d be a Debbie if I said this. You know how it goes though. Pick the solution that beat fits your needs. Yesterday it was the 3km.. today it is 12k. People are probably going to talk themselves into the snowiest solution regardless of the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You're always on this site telling us about how nuts we are to be on the same site. Never said anyone was nuts ...seriously... I made an observation that is ...prooobably much more clad than many users would choose to believe (eh hm), and in fact, would get angry. But there is a fine line between righteous indignation and insecurity behind that reaction. I don't pine and hand wring and emotionally react to every different model run, and frankly, it's annoying, sorry. I'm sure it is to the others that have chosen not to engage in this and have moved on ... And doing so at all? It is peculiar behavior - leave it at that. But you're right - I engage in the same internet social media format - that's about it. I do so because I enjoy writing about the weather, objectively. Also.. this model seeking behavior/phenomenon ...It is also (I believe) a new thing. It has to be! 15 years ago...well, 20 perhaps at this point, this wasn't possible. People used to react to the evening news when traditional media method of delivery would announce a busts or strikes ...etc... back in the day. Now? Folks have taken the 'reaction' to emotional level, and on roids, doing so, every 6 hours - sorry...that can't be healthy. Think about it - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: RPM solution for Jerry and pickles....stil snowing heavily in DE Maine at this point. Oye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 It would be a shame if ORH missed the record by a half inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’d be a Debbie if I said this. You know how it goes though. Pick the solution that beat fits your needs. Yesterday it was the 3km.. today it is 12k. People are probably going to talk themselves into the snowiest solution regardless of the model. There would be no denying that your right though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: 20"+ I went 6-12 out there bc I didn't have the balls to go higher. But watch that area be the storm jackpot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: RPM solution for Jerry and pickles....stil snowing heavily in DE Maine at this point. That's beautiful for my area...lock it in!! 12-16 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: It would be a shame if ORH missed the record by a half inch I think they’ll get it. Don’t forget the far edge bands will have good snow growth so QPF be dammed. DGZ is high up. I think SNH and your area will get several inches at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I went 6-12 out there bc I didn't have the balls to go higher. But watch that area be the storm jackpot... A few years back, It was the Congrats Eastport every storm there, That area always does well especially on late blooming clippers.................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Never said anyone was nuts ...seriously... I made an observation that is ...prooobably much more clad than many users would choose to believe (eh hm), and in fact, would get angry. But there is a fine line between righteous indignation and insecurity behind that reaction. I don't pine and hand wring and emotionally react to every different model run, and frankly, it's annoying, sorry. I'm sure it is to the others that have chosen not to engage in this and have moved on ... And doing so at all? It is peculiar behavior - leave it at that. But you're right - I engage in the same internet social media format - that's about it. I do so because I enjoy writing about the weather, objectively. Also.. this model seeking behavior/phenomenon ...It is also (I believe) a new thing. It has to be! 15 years ago...well, 20 perhaps at this point, this wasn't possible. People used to react to the evening news when traditional media method of delivery would announce a busts or strikes ...etc... back in the day. Now? Folks have taken the 'reaction' to emotional level, and on roids, doing so, every 6 hours - sorry...that can't be healthy. Think about it - But it's really no different than watching sports when one is heavily vested in the outcome of his team. This is what humans do...And even crave, it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 At least the kids are getting in a school day here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I'll bang the 3k NAM...that's a crush job for E MA. It really tilts the whole baroclinic zone more N-S and allows bands to keep rotating in from the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: So the answer to dendrite's question is "yes" That’s what your forecast has too, so it lines up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: At least the kids are getting in a school day here today. Good old early dismissal for mine. Still counts as a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: RPM solution for Jerry and pickles....stil snowing heavily in DE Maine at this point. Satiated. Thanks Will! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: It would be a shame if ORH missed the record by a half inch I think they get it. But this might be the first storm in years where they are not perfectly placed far enough east, west, north, south etc. They’ll prob end up in a 5 mile wide super band for 10 hours late tonight though knowing that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, JC-CT said: Good old early dismissal for mine. Still counts as a day. Yes, same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 31 minutes ago, weathafella said: Man delayed but not at all denied in Boston per NAM! It's interesting ... I was just speaking to someone at the office who is a hobbyist with weather stuff, about that. It seems this whole evolution this week never could get over the first wave vs second wave thing. The indications a few days back seemed to create a general baggy trough (I called it a 'place-holder') that seemed to lack a coherent focus within for a main event. Then, the models started suggesting a focus for Tuesday night into Wednesday... but lost that at 84 or so hours out. At that time... re-introducing a confused mess between the first of the two waves again... Now, it seems were seeing a more coherent look with the 2nd again, but for the course ... ended up pushing the 2nd one out in time by 18 to 24 hours. I'm wondering if the sped up timing of the models/error with the 2nd wave, was why it was confusing it with the first... when the 2nd one was never destined to a Tuesday night thing - Probably just seems that way, but this has been one incredible journey in correction antics by prognostic tools. It's been a riot watching media try and sort it out - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Look at everything get funneled right in to PA. Confluence is like a brick wall, the energy can't go north, so as it's squeezed, the only place it can go with ease is westward into PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I would think the H7 low track over LI would be problematic in terms of drying that area out over the next few hours (at least). Would fill back in on the back side, as it slides east but I find it odd that the 12zNAM didn't indicate any dryslot in that area. Radar seems to indicate mid level dry air pushing up from south of LI... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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