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Confidence increases for coastal storm threat along Eastern Seaboard

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted

From the BOX AFD... no recent changes 

Tuesday night through Thursday...

Upper flow turns from the south Tuesday night, supporting a scenario
for increasing moisture flow toward Southern New England.
Precipitable water values climb to between 0.5 and 0.75 inches,
which is above average for the equinox but not excessively so.

All models develop coastal low off North Carolina Tuesday afternoon
and then move it northeast, passing near the benchmark either
Wednesday or Wednesday night. The GFS and GGEM are similar in timing
this passage late afternoon/evening, while the ECMWF is slower with
passage Wednesday night. This track is about 70 miles farther north
than previous model runs, which would push precip farther north with
a better chance to affect Southern New England Wednesday.
Temperatures Wednesday will be borderline for accumulation, even
after accounting for wet bulb processes. Even so, the scenario as
presented shows potential for some snow accumulation, with a 4-5
inch bullseye in Southeast Mass with amounts diminishing toward the
Northwest.
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Digityman

Digityman

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, Really not much they can do in March but fix it in late spring, They interviewed a few plow guys up here and that was there biggest peeve on the local news and they said as hard as it is to plow this time of year, They have to explain it to their customers and most understand about ripping up the landscape.

When the ground is soft it is undoubtedly hard to do.  However, I bet if they asked their customers if they wanted to leave 2-3" of snow or plow up their driveway, customers would be okay with leaving those 2-3" and just drive over it to flatten it down.  I've had that conversation a few times with my guy but to no avail.  

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Your boy says meh.

Odds are against full MEH but the setup is still delicate in that if we see the lead s/w become any stronger or the confluence to the N shift, we can easily be left with a benign scenario.  I'm leaning on a 4-8" storm in E MA/RI/CT/Coastal NH/ME with less on the Cape due to BL issues and then a taperning N & W of the 4-8" up into S VT/S NH/ME.  The GEFS and EPS aren't too dissimilar right now.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

I probably should have mentioned/added this as a notables bullet point in the original statements of this thread. 

We are and have been for the last couple of weeks ... and certainly now moving forward, squarely at the time of the year when it is required, greater standard deviation cold anomalies to maintain freezing/frozen ptypes.  I figure a goodly amount of that is ...or "should" rather be in the back of minds, and not to merely take the fact that there is a cold high N and coastal low passing underneath as entitlement to snow.  It's likely to ?   But, some percentage of that mass will be claimed if by day, and obviously then much less loss by night.  

Just something to keep in mind.  We could take a moderate to major intensity structure, and have it rendered to a light to moderate impact because of this factor ...again, depending upon the magnitude of cold feeding into the circulation capable of offsetting the undeniable/unrelenting sun that yes ...even under dense ceilings plays some role.  

Undoubtedly... someone will reply to this with April 1984 type arguments... but, no ...that had the necessary -SD air mass and associated dynamics... such did May 1977...  It's a matter of whether this guy does too.  

Right now it looks like it has enough... but, I am little leery of whether it has the strength (total mechanics and dynamical) ... It could be a situation where conditionally, there's enough that with these it would be great, but the whole structural evolution is too midland to really go nuts.  

These are just points to consider -

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Odds are against full MEH but the setup is still delicate in that if we see the lead s/w become any stronger or the confluence to the N shift, we can easily be left with a benign scenario.  I'm leaning on a 4-8" storm in E MA/RI/CT/Coastal NH/ME with less on the Cape due to BL issues and then a taperning N & W of the 4-8" up into S VT/S NH/ME.  The GEFS and EPS aren't too dissimilar right now.

Agree on the delicacy. Confluence isn’t blocked in strongly so that can and will waver next 72 hours. It goes the other way too though....you get the lead wave to get pulled back in and consilidate into the trailing wave and it strengthens. Or, the lead wave ejects quicker while the trailer slows down some more....giving it more time to wrap up.

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Your boy says meh.

Wrong again.

Think Boston PVD and SE from there are in decent shape for 4-6” currently. I do think there is going to be a sharp cutoff. Tough to pin down where exactly that sets up given the continued waffles in the storm track.

Could be anywhere from Worcester to Southern VT area where that sets up. NW of there... very little.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Wrong again.

Think Boston PVD and SE from there are in decent shape for 4-6” currently. I do think there is going to be a sharp cutoff. Tough to pin down where exactly that sets up given the continued waffles in the storm track.

Could be anywhere from Worcester to Southern VT area where that sets up. NW of there... very little.

You was very worried last night.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

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Posted

I sort of see this storm in 2 phases.  The 1st one is down in the Mid-Atlantic where there is the initial redevelopment.  The confluence seems to be a player on that piece as it's modeled to be pretty stout.  As the storm lifts up the coast we get the 2nd burst up in the Southern and Coastal New England as the confluence breaks down.  How quickly this occurs and the speed of the storm will play a huge role with impacts. 100-150mi away from the coast. 

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Spanks45

Spanks45

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I sort of see this storm in 2 phases.  The 1st one is down in the Mid-Atlantic where there is the initial redevelopment.  The confluence seems to be a player on that piece as it's modeled to be pretty stout.  As the storm lifts up the coast we get the 2nd burst up in the Southern and Coastal New England as the confluence breaks down.  How quickly this occurs and the speed of the storm will play a huge role with impacts. 100-150mi away from the coast. 

The timing difference of even say 6 hours seems to make a huge difference. The Euro is slower, allowing the confluence to move further NE, plus the closer it gets to nighttime allowing for the better accumulations....

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