wxsniss Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Those 2 blobs of heavy on GFS... in southeast CT and eastern MA... correspond to mid-low level fronto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 the low was jumping around like it was on crack on the Nam 3km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: yea deff. still a good look as the ull catches up and stalls it. Any maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
henry1978 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: GFS makes tomorrow pretty snowy and really crushes 0-6Z. Great to hear Jerry, but most people are dying to hear about those who live east of the river? And what about Byram, Cos Cob, Old Greenwich, Stamford, Norwalk, south Norwalk, Westport? The Arby's on the Post Road off exit 17! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 This satellite image of water vapor imagery is simply stunning. this event is going to nail someone with over 18" of snow, the duration is longer and the cold air is already established, the models are getting colder at the coast, I think the HRRR model is on to something starting Cape Cod as all snow from the start, if so we can get 18" of snow too if banding sets up correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Funny I didn’t back off my co-workers but I got wishy washy when they asked for details...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Look at that large plume of very intense convection and cold cloud tops expanding and cooling as they race northward over the western Atlantic Ocean and then Northwestward over the Delmarva Peninsula. It takes the upper-level low close to 21 hours to travel from KY to DE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 My second guess snowfall map, my last map comes tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 No changes after 00z. Final call. BOOM http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/03/321-322-spring-snow-storm-final-call.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Here was RGEM run for the queens...it is slightly less than 18z, but a big jump NW on Maine coast. I thought midlevels looked really good...being on that qpf gradient is sometimes a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 CMC crushes eastern MA also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Here was RGEM run for the queens...it is slightly less than 18z, but a big jump NW on Maine coast. I thought midlevels looked really good...being on that qpf gradient is sometimes a good thing. I didn't hit the mid level band that hard in this system because its occluded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 27 minutes ago, weathafella said: Logan should get up over 60 inches (they need 2.8). Wouldn’t have called for that a month ago! Yeah Jerry and SRAirglo... pretty confident Logan breaks 60... incredible month Without the luxury of 0z suite, I told inquiring co-workers earlier today 4-8" for Boston, and feel a little better about that now... only significant outlier was coked out 18z HRPDS, let's see if 0z comes down to earth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: CMC crushes eastern MA also. Where do you get it so quick Jerry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I didn't hit the mid level band that hard in this system because its occluded. We may have to watch for one though as the later guidance here has been showing a trend of a big vort max ripping around the east side of the ULL and reinvigorating the midlevels...they sort of die out to our SW but then regenerate a good bit of forcing if that vortmax rips in from the S...it's prob why we're seeing bigger qpf in E MA on some of these runs. OF course, the Euro could take a steaming dump on that idea again...so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Changes expected at around 12z tomorrow morning will be to trim the northern extent of the snowfall and pack the gradient further, plus add a 12-18" range and add another 18"+ somewhere in a band between BOS and ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: We may have to watch for one though as the later guidance here has been showing a trend of a big vort max ripping around the east side of the ULL and reinvigorating the midlevels...they sort of de out to our SW but then regenerate a good bit of forcing if that vortmax rips in from the S...it's prob why we're seeing bigger qpf in E MA on some of these runs. OF course, the Euro could take a steaming dump on that idea again...so we'll see. Will there is a vort max over NE KS that looks to get into the fray at some point in the next 27 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We may have to watch for one though as the later guidance here has been showing a trend of a big vort max ripping around the east side of the ULL and reinvigorating the midlevels...they sort of die out to our SW but then regenerate a good bit of forcing if that vortmax rips in from the S...it's prob why we're seeing bigger qpf in E MA on some of these runs. OF course, the Euro could take a steaming dump on that idea again...so we'll see. Yea, possible. I may bust by a bit if that happens....maybe could of just hit 6-12" to s NH....but not confident enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Changes expected at around 12z tomorrow morning will be to trim the northern extent of the snowfall and pack the gradient further, plus add a 12-18" range and add another 18"+ somewhere in a band between BOS and ORH Stop it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Pump the brakes James lol...Euro only has a couple slushy inches. It may rain on your parade and mine in a couple hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, possible. I may bust by a bit if that happens....maybe could of just hit 6-12" to s NH....but not confident enough. This is what we're watching...the next frame is where the precip explodes over E MA that run...not a coincidence: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Stop it. Haha yeah maybe leave the high amounts in that range they are in now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: This is what we're watching...the next frame is where the precip explodes over E MA that run...not a coincidence: Will this is the rare existence where the longer duration actually helps out eastern SNE as it allows a reinvigoration of the snow bands as they come inland from the ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This is what we're watching...the next frame is where the precip explodes over E MA that run...not a coincidence: This is where the guys like you separate yourselves from the hobbyists like me. Never would have caught that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Any maps? My bad yea. 18z wed 6z thur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Will this is the rare existence where the longer duration actually helps out eastern SNE as it allows a reinvigoration of the snow bands as they come inland from the ocean The slower evolution actually helps the conveyors get rejuvenated again....we go from a stretched ENE-WSW baroclinic zone and starts tilting it back more NNE-SSW again. So we're able to create some ML fronto over eastern New England later in the game. Hopefully the look is correct. IT's not all just because of speed either...its actually mostly because the lead wave is not escaping as much now and the ULL is flexing more allowing the best upper air support for the storm to get further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 51 minutes ago, henry1978 said: I think that's also doubtful. Perhaps Bourne. Whhoooossshhhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: My bad yea. 18z wed 6z thur Thank you Berg...doesn’t move all to far in those 12 hrs either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Anyways, I think that does it for me tonight...pretty hefty totals on most of the runs tonight so far for my region to BOS folks. RGEM was a little more cautious but still probably a big hit given the ML look. Won't be staying up for the Euro....but it's gotta come back at least somewhat I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This is what we're watching...the next frame is where the precip explodes over E MA that run...not a coincidence: Yeah that’s the lobe I mentioned earlier. And also the low Is less of an oblong shape. No coincidence there. So you tighten up the circulations instead of some sort of stretched out 850-700 front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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