weatherwiz Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: I'm still worried about the 1" in New Milford and 15" in Westport deal with 84 getting a few inches.... There is sure to be some type of gradient...just not sure if if it's more N to S type deal of not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Wizzy with the big balls call, I like it. Lets go kid! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The NAM NST looked like it might have some subsidence between the two bands. This is the map I made around noon That’s ballsy but if 18z are right. It’s great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: The NAM NST looked like it might have some subsidence between the two bands. This is the map I made around noon Oh ok you brought things up...I would have went 20” as my ultimate top number ...but hope you’re right bud!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Wizzy with the big balls call, I like it. Lets go kid! I had to go to Charter at 3:00 and didn't have time to wait around for the Euro so I upped totals after seeing the 12z NAM/GFS. Had I saw the Euro not sure if I would have done that...especially N CT but it seems like the Euro is more of an outlier...? I really liked where the 700 and 500 lows closed off too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: If there was no convection we’d be looking at flurries around the pike with 2-4 in CT which is what the Euro missed. The Mesos have the convection as does the goofus which is why they roared everything way up. 00z Euro will have a massive uptick for the queens tonight and it’ll be the usual..what’s wrong with that model sounds like Jan 2016, it took it until 00z the night before (while NYC already was snowing with several inches otg) before it made a sig bump north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Some local Mets here are going to yoyo if these trends hold and the euro comes back north. Going to be some mea culpa big time tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Oh ok you brought things up...I would have went 20” as my ultimate top number ...but hope you’re right bud!! Yea, my jacks are 14-20” for the luck spots but its semantics....good storm incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: There is sure to be some type of gradient...just not sure if if it's more N to S type deal of not Can you bump that 10 to 16 up 3 towns? been getting screwed every storm.... Hoping for a last minute trend north!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Oh ok you brought things up...I would have went 20” as my ultimate top number ...but hope you’re right bud!! the 24'' is for the slant stickers out there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: sounds like Jan 2016, it took it until 00z the night before (while NYC already was snowing with several inches otg) before it made a sig bump north. Yes sir, that was the beginning of the end of the Euro’s relatively stable personality... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I kind of hope I have class at least tomorrow morning. We were supposed to have a test two weeks ago...just want to get it over with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: sounds like Jan 2016, it took it until 00z the night before (while NYC already was snowing with several inches otg) before it made a sig bump north. That's the one Snow88 always breaks out as an example of a NAM coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Where is Ginx? Figured he'd be all over this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, Hoth said: That's the one Snow88 always breaks out as an example of a NAM coup. yeah but in reality it really wasn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: yeah but in reality it really wasn't Whats your thoughts on New Haven area? I will be working at AMR tomorrow, at 4pm, debating on going in well before then. What you think? Some of these models have great soundings that will beat any sun angle or treated surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, Hoth said: Where is Ginx? Figured he'd be all over this. Skiing in Maine but surprised he hasn't checked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: yeah but in reality it really wasn't Mets like DT, who hails the euro, tipped his cap to the nam on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, Hoth said: That's the one Snow88 always breaks out as an example of a NAM coup. Feb 06 when you need a JMA one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, Hoth said: Where is Ginx? Figured he'd be all over this. Up here skiing at Sunday River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Skiing in Maine but surprised he hasn't checked in. Ah, probably buried up to his neck in pow. Good for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 idk if I can just toss two straight runs like that of the euro. I wouldn’t change the forecast, but i’d be ready to jump ship after the nam and gfs tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Feb 06 when you need a JMA one Oof. It's overdue for a repeat performance. Won't hold my breath though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
henry1978 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Up here skiing at Sunday River. With Ginx on vacation will the museum survive the storm in his absence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 hour ago, CT Rain said: I have no idea what to expect with this storm. The EPS and Euro is just so atrociously snowless but other signs are so big. Are they? I'm seeing a system with middling mid level power/mechanic strength working against it's self, which is mitigating it further - how? intra wave spacing issues. It's got a reasonable total coherent structure, but there are small cuts/irregularities in these jet structures and I suspect they are interfering ...and it's then in turn sort of stopping the feedback processes. The sfc waves peeling off and spitting seaward aren't helping (in the models that is..) I've sort of thought of this as a moderate impact all along - seems the atmosphere is trying to make that right whether I was right for that insight or not. Seriously though, this has had weight for days in the ensembles by members, but not really by strength therein. They all had pallid looks, though were agreeing "something" would be here in the east. I joked that it looked more like a trough place-holder that was missing it's guts earlier this week - ...maybe foreboding. interesting Hell, maybe now-casting will expose the models as just not being able to handle this? Already it seems a tall order with like 5 whirls out there being managed by some of these meso models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: idk if I can just toss two straight runs like that of the euro. I wouldn’t change the forecast, but i’d be ready to jump ship after the nam and gfs tonight. you find the double qpf max (two diff shortwaves separated a day apart) around the northern Mid Atlantic odd at all? Experience says that just doesn’t tend to happen. And physically, meteorologically speaking there’s reasons why we don’t see this happen in reality...I’m wondering if the euro may have had a better handle down there versus guidance but effed up royally up here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 WV loop is gonna be another classic. I'd love to see a full month loop when it's all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 43 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: If there was no convection we’d be looking at flurries around the pike with 2-4 in CT which is what the Euro missed. The Mesos have the convection as does the goofus which is why they roared everything way up. 00z Euro will have a massive uptick for the queens tonight and it’ll be the usual..what’s wrong with that model And the usual , "the euro did fine" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Are they? I'm seeing a system with middling mid level power/mechanic strength working against it's self, which is mitigating it further - how? intra wave spacing issues. It's got a reasonable total coherent structure, but there are small cuts/irregularities in these jet structures and I suspect they are interfering ...and it's then in turn sort of stopping the feedback processes. The sfc waves peeling off and spitting seaward aren't helping (in the models that is..) I've sort of thought of this as a moderate impact all along - seems the atmosphere is trying to make that right whether I was right for that insight or not. Seriously though, this has had weight for days in the ensembles by members, but not really by strength therein. They all had pallid looks, though were agreeing "something" would be here in the east. I joked that it looked more like a trough place-holder that was missing it's guts earlier this week - ...maybe foreboding. interesting Hell, maybe now-casting will expose the models as just not being able to handle this? Already it seems a tall order with like 5 whirls out there being managed by some of these meso models. Agree....but also not buying the whiff that some guidance is implying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 20 minutes ago, dendrite said: idk if I can just toss two straight runs like that of the euro. I wouldn’t change the forecast, but i’d be ready to jump ship after the nam and gfs tonight. Exactly what I am doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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