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Confidence increases for coastal storm threat along Eastern Seaboard


Typhoon Tip

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pretty good look there.

Soundings at 36 hours look great back this way even though qpf queens in my area wouldn't love it...max lift is around 600mb andthe DGZ is right in that height level. So we'd prob get a 3-4 hour period of really good snows.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Soundings at 36 hours look great back this way even though qpf queens in my area wouldn't love it...max lift is around 600mb andthe DGZ is right in that height level. So we'd prob get a 3-4 hour period of really good snows.

Yeah I’m mobile so didn’t look but I imagine that. 

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Soundings at 36 hours look great back this way even though qpf queens in my area wouldn't love it...max lift is around 600mb andthe DGZ is right in that height level. So we'd prob get a 3-4 hour period of really good snows.

I'm in the office...can you tell if the sharp shunt zone in north of me?

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Soundings at 36 hours look great back this way even though qpf queens in my area wouldn't love it...max lift is around 600mb andthe DGZ is right in that height level. So we'd prob get a 3-4 hour period of really good snows.

I'm seeing high risk for sleet due to H7 inside I95 and to around SE MA; looks like sleetstorm down there until front side of H7 low passes.. What are your thoughts?

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2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I'm seeing high risk for sleet due to H7 inside I95 and to around SE MA.. What are your thoughts?

Maybe a little in the early stages in far SE MA? Otherwise I think it's mostly snow off the cape.

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I know it's easier for us to beat up on OKX because I don't think any of their guys post in this thread, but to be fair BOX is usually higher with snow totals than the local tv stations and at times significantly so particularly in the forecast area fringes in western Massachusetts and in SE coastal areas.  Doesn't get discussed much because the population is lower in these areas farther removed from 95.  Except for January 4th every single event this winter has under performed in extreme se sne in a winter where there haven't been any south coast scrapers or Nantucket nippers.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Maybe a little in the early stages in far SE MA? Otherwise I think it's mostly snow off the cape.

Yeah, I'm looking at the sounding on Pivotal and it's showing rain but the entire column is well below 0c.  Not sure where/how it's getting that.  Agree on a mostly snow profile off the Cape.

 nam_2018032012_036_41.92--71_06.thumb.png.93779c3560458d1591610ba8c6ea235c.png

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Looking at the entire column its very cold on the Cape as well, 850mb stay around 1C to -2C the entire storm, while the 925mb temps stay below freezing the whole time, I think we might have a melting layer between 850-700mb for a little bit on the Cape and Islands, so I think we start off as rain/mix then turnover to snow as the low begins to slowly pull away.

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