Typhoon Tip Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Euro has been notoriously se with qpf and it started with the Jan 2016 MA blizzard. And it’s not just deform band related either. There is veracious value to this statement.. WPC discussions have noted on a couple of different occasions over the last year, that the Euro has in fact presented a marked easterly bias over the western Atlantic ... having to frequently correct west in shorter time frames. It seems pretty clear, that would also entail storm attributes, ...such as QPF distribution vs verification and so forth. So, a SE bias with QPF ... while I'm not sure about the notoriety of it ( ) the idea there is not without merit. That said, I'm not sure we're seeing the same thing here. That sort of correction west ...that happened (or began so) yesterday as early as the 00z run, which is really a day and a half ago, and got a bit more happy to look at 12z yesterday morning. What happened last night was different? It represented a 'splitting' ...or smearing of forcing causing less coherent lower level development of the low, and that appears to be more so why (at this time) things are painting SE. Does it make it right? No, not necessarily... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Where in sne looks good for ML banding as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ask BTV how it worked out tossing the euro. Bad idea. Scott, nobody said toss it...but it isn't consistent like it used to be..sorry if you disagree, but it just isn't. And I think the Forecast offices are starting to give it less weight when it goes to its biases. It's still the best model, but the upgrade made it not as good as it used to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, WinterWolf said: Scott, nobody said toss it...but it isn't consistent like it used to be..sorry if you disagree, but it just isn't. And I think the Forecast offices are starting to give it less weight when it goes to its biases. It's still the best model, but the upgrade made it not as good as it used to be. So weigh it less? LOL. Not a smart move IMO. I don't see anything wrong with it currently. Both the GFS and Euro have heavier snow in SW CT. But OKX has gone wild as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: OKX gone wild...I def wouldn't be comfortable going 15" for NYC. Is there any guidance outside of the NAM that gives that much? Maybe RGEM I guess. That said, I wouldn't completely rule it out either...there's a good deformation/ML signal from there and it goes right into SNE too. I agree that 12 to 16 is high. I do like TWC call of 8 to 13 for them. Seems that these models have about a foot for them: CMC, RGEM, HERPIES, Deep Thunder, UKMET, ICON. GFS is 12 inches for eastern parts of the City. Basically Brooklyn and Queens. Lightest amounts are from EURO, 3k NAM, NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 OKX chucks em deep like they got Randy moss receiving. Instead the results are usually like they threw to Randy Jackson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Even the GFS has quite the QPF max with lift well under the DGZ. Not so sure up here. We'll see what 12z does, but other than the typical caveat of a weenie band, I don't see a ton of factors to go bullish (IE max of models) like the last event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: There is veracious value to this statement.. WPC discussions have noted on a couple of different occasions over the last year, that the Euro has in fact presented a marked easterly bias over the western Atlantic ... having to frequently correct west in shorter time frames. It seems pretty clear, that would also entail storm attributes, ...such as QPF distribution vs verification and so forth. So, a SE bias with QPF ... while I'm not sure about the notoriety of it ( ) the idea there is not without merit. That said, I'm not sure we're seeing the same thing here. That sort of correction west ...that happened (or began so) yesterday as early as the 00z run, which is really a day and a half ago, and got a bit more happy to look at 12z yesterday morning. What happened last night was different? It represented a 'splitting' ...or smearing of forcing causing less coherent lower level development of the low, and that appears to be more so why (at this time) things are painting SE. Does it make it right? No, not necessarily... Yea, I did not mean it is doing it again here but anyone focused on euro qpf will fail more often than not. It’s also a models lowest scoring parameter, right? So.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 Also ... someone mentioned this a while ago and I think it's a good point. Have to watch the deep SE convection. That could exhaust latent heat into the region S of NS out over the western Atlantic. One thing that occurs to me reviewing the RGEM...it really 'ruins the KU party' for HFD-BOS beginning at 42 hours. At that time, if you go look at the H500 evolution, there is a spurious looking "stretching" or oblong morphology in the structure of the closed low that suddenly formulates. At that time, there is a potent jet streak that runs around and squirts out of the trough and that appears to be lowering heights out there and exciting a new low and that's what really pulls this east and dims the impact for SNE. That's after it's dumped a considerable amt of snow at ACY! Anyway, that stretching and shearing NE of the total structure of this thing may actually have some origin back SW .. If convection back SW helps modulate taller heights out S/SW of NS by hour 40, it's less likely the RGEMs solution that far out in time is going to be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 This is 6-10" at BOS. Lucky if double digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Even the GFS has quite the QPF max with lift well under the DGZ. Not so sure up here. We'll see what 12z does, but other than the typical caveat of a weenie band, I don't see a ton of factors to go bullish (IE max of models) like the last event. Its actually pretty good here. DGZ is high, but so is the lift (550-600mb). But we may have to worry about being on the northern extent of the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, wx2fish said: Its actually pretty good here. DGZ is high, but so is the lift (550-600mb). But we may have to worry about being on the northern extent of the precip Probably something where SNH does better than modeled, but not so sure the bullish numbers down here work. But we'll see what 12z does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: So weigh it less? LOL. Not a smart move IMO. I don't see anything wrong with it currently. Both the GFS and Euro have heavier snow in SW CT. But OKX has gone wild as usual. If it's going to a bias at times, and there's proof that it does this at times...of course weigh it less and use it accordingly and to it's strengths imo. But what do I know lol. Hopefully we get a decent event..that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Nice pivot point depicted yet the model spit anemic amounts, flags be a flying. Go with 8" region-wide and call it a day. Wild day down here. Straight-line, hail and spinners. I'll take a snowflake or three over these boomers any-day! TOR Warn issued just my E...oh boy, and away we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, ROOSTA said: Nice pivot point depicted yet the model spit anemic amounts, flags be a flying. Go with 8" region-wide and call it a day. Wild day down here. Straight-line, hail and spinners. I'll take a snowflake or three over these boomers any-day! TOR Warn issued just my E...oh boy, and away we go. stay safe and pump those heights for us. NAM looks better to my eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: stay safe and pump those heights for us. NAM looks better to my eye It looks to me like it’s going to try to whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I'd go 6-10 locally 12 in SW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, weathafella said: It looks to me like it’s going to try to whiff. Not seeing that at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Was surprised to see NWS snow predictions, but with the airmass and that correction west....wouldn't be at all surprised to see the amounts getting upped further here with cold and fluff factor figured in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 12z Looks much better to me through 24 hours...H5 is deeper and a bit southwest of 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: 12z Looks much better to me through 24 hours...H5 is deeper and a bit southwest of 06z. are you still located in Worcester area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 hours ago, sbos_wx said: Ray really knows how to stoke the fire for a moderate snow event ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: It looks to me like it’s going to try to whiff. Looks like nice F-gen at 700 and 850 mb pushing in. I like the look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 She coming on Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Yeah I need to not look at this by phone but other options don’t work today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Timing is slowing too. Becoming more of a night event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Not whiffing that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Timing is slowing too. Becoming more of a night event here. Would help accum 4 sure. NAM looks nice by 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Yeah I need to not look at this by phone but other options don’t work today Yeah the only site that is worth anything for comparison on mobile is TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 NWS has a high of 26F here to go along with the flurries. This is similar to the 4/4/16 storm cold wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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