Ginx snewx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 31 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Should be a great airmass for you guys down south for this storm... fourth day below zero up here and averaging -25 departures for 3 days now, a 4th coming today. if you want a coastal snowstorm this time of year, get NNE below zero and you're good to go. Yep and the N wind here last night was insane. WTH did that come from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You issue a map yet? Not yet, im headed to work right now, will work on one when i get home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: upton doing the same. Expected snowfall of 16” but 11-15” forecast range. Early morning whiskey. Yeah expected snowfall of 16" here too, talk about selling that number. I'm worried even cutting that in half might still be too much. Confluence for the loss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: We can always count on you to find a storm that any particular weenie model did well with. Should be a good day for model hugging/tossing today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 NWS just upped amounts for CT on point and click and maps. They have to be weighing EURO less in their blend. EURO is only 6 to 8 in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 BTV WRF and Swiss miss go kind of nuts. The Swizzy has a nice deformation band look from about Ray to Kev to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 If that OKX map actually verifies it will be the biggest snowstorm in history this late in the season and going forward till april/may. For NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Guidance is a mess. All over the place. I'm also seeing a lot of QPF in areas where the DGZ is not optimal. Numerous caution flags with this one... McLean is on the tarmac jumping and waving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: NWS just upped amounts for CT on point and click and maps. They have to be weighing EURO less in their blend. EURO is only 6 to 8 in the area. I can only speak for NYC, but Upton has been very aggressive all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 11 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Yeah expected snowfall of 16" here too, talk about selling that number. I'm worried even cutting that in half might still be too much. Confluence for the loss? Not worried at all. This will be a good one. 10-14” call for us, nothing has changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not worried at all. This will be a good one. 10-14” call for us, nothing has changed. SW CT might be in a good spot here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I can only speak for NYC, but Upton has been very aggressive all season. Agreed they have been at the upper end. What are your thoughts about the EURO SE dry bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 FYI, BOX is moving to their new Office today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: FYI, BOX is moving to their new Office today. That would explain the booze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: That would explain the booze Bender sender. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I think there will be more of a Northeast/Southwest gradient with this. I'm not really buying what the 0z euro is selling, and especially not the 6z RGEM. I think there's a clear trend for UL heights increasing over eastern New England with time...Dare I say the 6z NAM seems quite reasonable in terms of track and H5 capture. I think this will capture at H5 later than current guidance consensus as the flow transitions from slow and meridional, to more progressive over the east coast. With H5 cutting off so early, it seems we could have a similar situation as the previous two systems where there isn't a clean capture, but instead a kick NE/NNE before capture. The SLP track close to the coast and then quickly NNE/NE towards the cape seems quite reasonable to me given the recent storms we've seen this year and the flip in the tele's... Separately, surface temps today definitely don't scream suppression in my backyard... Probably get into the low 40's here today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 NWS GW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: NWS just upped amounts for CT on point and click and maps. They have to be weighing EURO less in their blend. EURO is only 6 to 8 in the area. This is what I mean with the Euro lately....never used to do this before the upgrade. Did this last week with the Burp run where it took a lot of the precip away with one run...only to bring it back on the next. Forecast offices are starting to not factor it as much it seems when it goes and does this. I hope they are right cuz this would be a nice storm for us here with the cold in place...best airmass of all 4 March Nor'Easters here with this one...so bring the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Agreed they have been at the upper end. What are your thoughts about the EURO SE dry bias? I haven't noticed this? Seems like maybe you mean those deformation bands getting farther NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 6z GFS already looks OTL based on radar. Precip already north of philly and making it into Central NJ....Doesn't seem it will have any trouble making it to Long Island over the next few hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: NWS GW Reasonable. About the high end I would expect but within ‘range’. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I think there will be more of a Northeast/Southwest gradient with this. I'm not really buying what the 0z euro is selling, and especially not the 6z RGEM. I think there's a clear trend for UL heights increasing over eastern New England with time...Dare I say the 6z NAM seems quite reasonable in terms of track and H5 capture. I think this will capture at H5 later than current guidance consensus as the flow transitions from slow and meridional, to more progressive over the east coast. With H5 cutting off so early, it seems we could have a similar situation as the previous two systems where there isn't a clean capture, but instead a kick NE/NNE before capture. The SLP track close to the coast and then quickly NNE/NE towards the cape seems quite reasonable to me given the recent storms we've seen this year and the flip in the tele's... Separately, surface temps today definitely don't scream suppression in my backyard... Probably get into the low 40's here today... Makes sense..Meteorology not Modelology. And it fits the set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: This is what I mean with the Euro lately....never used to do this before the upgrade. Did this last week with the Burp run where it took a lot of the precip away with one run...only to bring it back on the next. Forecast offices are starting to not factor it as much it seems when it goes and does this. I hope they are right cuz this would be a nice storm for us here with the cold in place...best airmass of all 4 March Nor'Easters here with this one...so bring the QPF. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: This is what I mean with the Euro lately....never used to do this before the upgrade. Did this last week with the Burp run where it took a lot of the precip away with one run...only to bring it back on the next. Forecast offices are starting to not factor it as much it seems when it goes and does this. I hope they are right cuz this would be a nice storm for us here with the cold in place...best airmass of all 4 March Nor'Easters here with this one...so bring the QPF. Ask BTV how it worked out tossing the euro. Bad idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I haven't noticed this? Seems like maybe you mean those deformation bands getting farther NW? Correct. Last storm Hartford east was in the 6+ according to the EURO. That line ended up being approx. 35 miles west in reality. I ended up with 9.5 and closer to the NY boarder than Hartford. Jan 5th EURO had me on the western edge of the accumulating snow. The western Edge ended up being over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 I'm not sure all that was said since yesterday in this thread ... I wasn't impressed on whole/average with the runs since yesterday. The 00z NAM was impressive, but the other models did not follow suit nearly enough for me to succumb to typical NAM guile wrt to systems interacting with the interface of the Atlantic/continent at 42 hours .. a typical amplitude look that seems to materialize with that model around that region, and that time frame. The RGEM is smearing out the surface low and failing to coalesce back west now as of 06z - two schools of thought with that: a, the model is having trouble resolving convection/height modulations out at sea ... when having to simultaneously manage a trough evolution back closer to the coast that is actually only middling intensity. It's using the the convective processes (it looks like to me) to carve a new region(s) of forcing farther east. That then does two things ...one, new forcing in that region closes a new surface wave; two, said new wave then "robs" the one associated with the "real" trough back closer to the coast ... and the whole thing ends up a mess. The Euro did something very similar, it would appear. b, the models is/are correct in their handling, in essence ... The NAM's 00z solution was less gullible to the convective sequencing and appeared to focus entirely with the western envelope ...hugging the low closer to the mid level centers. The 06z split the difference and appears to be about mid way between the 00z/06z RGEM/00z Euro thinking, with stress evident and weaker western solution and some shearing and new tendencies seaward. The problem is, much of this could be true. The physics in the models don't 'make things up' that are outside theoretical plausibility .. I could argue that the western solutions are more likely because that's where the traditional mid level mechanics/closing at sigma levels and all that is transpiring, however... given to the middling mechanical power therein, does sort of lend to a system that is prone to perturbation - such as convective nodes and so forth. I could argue the former and latter evenly ...so, after all that, ... my conclusion is I'm not sure which way to go at the moment. Part of the problem with this system's is that for the last couple of days worth of modeling et al, its story line appears to be told between the RAOBs... There has been this really predictable oscillation with the NAM (for example), when comparing the 3 and 6 -hourly intervals across successive runs, to be weaker then returning to stronger ..back and forth, like sloshing estimates by the model. A little stronger, we get back west with a deeper solution that pummels in the K.U. fashion... 06 and 18z runs come along and it's weaker ...trimming back QPF and duration...etc. Seeing the Euro go sheared with the surface low ... and also, it's 'panache' in the the mid levels looks smaller and pallid compared to previous runs (perhaps lending to the former because of - ), this close into the event... pains me to have to say, but a mid-grade system on a K.U. trajectory might be the best description for this thing .. Unless of course we can prove that these model poorly initialized? 10" ...maybe 15" in max areas, with many less than that ...impressive, less memorable. For those regions farther down deeper in the M/A (than NJ) that do get affected, it may stick out more so for their annuls and lore, simply by comparison to the rest of the season - I dunno. Perhaps the 'between the RAOBs' musing above may bring it all back to coherent impact at 12z. I think we've had other events in this active period that required unusually short lead time corrections, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Correct. Last storm Hartford east was in the 6+ according to the EURO. That line ended up being approx. 35 miles west in reality. I ended up with 9.5 and closer to the NY boarder than Hartford. Jan 5th EURO had me on the western edge of the accumulating snow. The western Edge ended up being over NYC. Euro has been notoriously se with qpf and it started with the Jan 2016 MA blizzard. And it’s not just deform band related either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ask BTV how it worked out tossing the euro. Bad idea. Never toss, It actually has been spot on up here the last two biggies, I expect the same this go round for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Man tropicaltidbits is awesome. Those x-sections are great and I just realized you can do averaged soundings for any size grid you want. Cray cray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 OKX gone wild...I def wouldn't be comfortable going 15" for NYC. Is there any guidance outside of the NAM that gives that much? Maybe RGEM I guess. That said, I wouldn't completely rule it out either...there's a good deformation/ML signal from there and it goes right into SNE too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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