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Confidence increases for coastal storm threat along Eastern Seaboard


Typhoon Tip

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I'm not really worried about 18z output. I didn't think it looked bad and the GEFS were fine. Yeah it wasnt quite as robust as the 12z runs but it's a small change. We got a long ways to go still for little shifts to happen. 

Now just don't look at the 21z rpm. Lol. 

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13 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I think they were referring mainly to the DC-NYC corridor.

I thought that too, but they said SNE in there too.  Nothing about the possible cold temps scenario up this way...I hate when media outlets just generalize and use blanket statements as a catch-all.  

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12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm not really worried about 18z output. I didn't think it looked bad and the GEFS were fine. Yeah it wasnt quite as robust as the 12z runs but it's a small change. We got a long ways to go still for little shifts to happen. 

Now just don't look at the 21z rpm. Lol. 

Inquiring mimes want to know...

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

UK scores better than gfs and way better than cmc.

ok, i really don't know much about uk scoring and it may very well be right under ECMWF. I'm just going off my own perspective and opinion from forecasting for many years. I really don't have access or look at the ukmet too much compared to the other three. 

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Just now, weathafella said:

What is it about the ukmet that makes its output so restricted?  

It's like the ECMWF i believe, you have to pay to play. For whatever reason weatherbell didn't have it for a long time, then they got it, then it was removed. I remember Ryan Maue tweeting something about the difficulty of puting the numerical output on a visual map display.

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14 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

ok, i really don't know much about uk scoring and it may very well be right under ECMWF. I'm just going off my own perspective and opinion from forecasting for many years. I really don't have access or look at the ukmet too much compared to the other three. 

I gotchya. the scoring is posted here at times and it always stood out, right behind the euro. The crappy maps on meteocentre and non availability on most sites diminishes its perceived value, however.

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