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Confidence increases for coastal storm threat along Eastern Seaboard

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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This may not bear much relevancy to anything in the here and now but, I am always taken aback by the notion that at the other end of seasonal dial, snow of any measure now would be akin to late summer sun while happening. 

Oh, we can say that September 1 is the Meteorological first day of autumn and so forth ... therefore, for that purpose, it is an early autumn sun. Okay for the purposes of science and what ultimately means nothing: human invented temporal boundaries. What's consistent year to year?  The sun. More traditionally... culture's perspective on said matters is that September 21 dots the last i and crosses the last t of the summer story each year.   

Now, imagine staring down the barrel of any snow at all in the last week of Julian summer  -  weird juxtaposition.  

I can remember when as a child, 4" of snow was a sight to behold. Granted, I was not a child of New England. I fledgling romped as a ten-year old can kicker around the streets and playgrounds of Kalamazoo Michigan.  There, the climate is similar to this part of the country, with some subtle difference ...Namely, it's a little bit colder, but a little less synoptic snow.  4" happened frequently, whether by storm organization, or Lake Effect. Far less frequently were those events that exceeded 6". 

Then, the blizzard of 1978 struck, the Cleveland Super-bomb ... That storm was indescribable, though lord knows I have certainly plied my word smithing in an endeavor to tell that story with the same affect. You can read about it. You can hear about it. But neither homage can portray having lived it.  And as magnificent as that was ... we get 1/2 to 3/4ers what that storm delivered in this day and age, at almost routine frequency.  About half my life was spent in a relative dearth of significant events, or ... by those standards, a large number of big time 5" snow storms!  The other half, I must admit - despite priding myself for keeping level-headed, I have become too acclimated, perhaps even jaded ... to the point where a snow storm isn't a snow storm unless it's at a minimum, a half a yard stick deep.  

Nature's been handing out 10 to 30" snow storms like a busted flap on a pez dispenser ... too frequently to really call them "bombs" anymore.  Words of such grandiosity, they really should be reserved for top tier events; and, by 'top tier' those should also by trait of significance, be rare.  I look back along the last 20 years and I've lost count how many storms were 2/3rds or greater in snow totals compared to the grandeur of the 1978 storms - both the Super Bomb and the one that took place out here two weeks later that year.  Then I wonder ...the next "1978"  ...maybe that will be 5 or 6 feet to keep the scale proportionate -

Just some musing over lunch..     

 

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This may not bear much relevancy to anything in the here and now but, I am always taken aback by the notion that at the other end of seasonal dial, snow of any measure now would be akin to late summer sun while happening. 

Oh, we can say that September 1 is the Meteorological first day of autumn and so forth ... therefore, for that purpose, it is an early autumn sun. Okay for the purposes of science and what ultimately means nothing: human invented temporal boundaries. What's consistent year to year?  The sun. More traditionally... culture's perspective on said matters is that September 21 dots the last i and crosses the last t of the summer story each year.   

Now, imagine staring down the barrel of any snow at all in the last week of Julian summer  -  weird juxtaposition.  

I can remember when as a child, 4" of snow was a sight to behold. Granted, I was not a child of New England. I fledgling romped as a ten-year old can kicker around the streets and playgrounds of Kalamazoo Michigan.  There, the climate is similar to this part of the country, with some subtle difference ...Namely, it's a little bit colder, but a little less synoptic snow.  4" happened frequently, whether by storm organization, or Lake Effect. Far less frequently were those events that exceeded 6". 

Then, the blizzard of 1978 struck, the Cleveland Super-bomb ... That storm was indescribable, though lord knows I have certainly plied my word smithing in an endeavor to tell that story with the same affect. You can read about it. You can hear about it. But neither homage can portray having lived it.  And as magnificent as that was ... we get 1/2 to 3/4ers what that storm delivered in this day and age, at almost routine frequency.  About half my life was spent in a relative dearth of significant events, or ... by those standards, a large number of big time 5" snow storms!  The other half, I must admit - despite priding myself for keeping level-headed, I have become too acclimated, perhaps even jaded ... to the point where a snow storm isn't a snow storm unless it's at a minimum, a half a yard stick deep.  

Nature's been handing out 10 to 30" snow storms too frequently to really call them "bombs" anymore.  Words of such grandiosity, they really should be reserved for top tier events; and, by 'top tier' those should also by trait of significance, be rare.  I look back along the last 20 years and I've lost count how many storms were 2/3rds or greater in snow totals compared to the grandeur of the 1978 storms - both the Super Bomb and the one that took place out here two weeks later that year. 

Just some musing over lunch..     

 

Just look how many big storms we’ve had this month. Surreal. Yes, it doesn’t always hit for our yards like we hope and pray for, but that doesn’t change the big picture. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

 

You hotlinked it before? :o

No, Jerry posted a link right above. But it will say something different this time tomorrow...I like to keep images archived so we can go back in the threads at a later date and see what the models were showing.

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rimetree

rimetree

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16 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Just look how many big storms we’ve had this month. Surreal. Yes, it doesn’t always hit for our yards like we hope and pray for, but that doesn’t change the big picture. 

I'm guessing these periods have happened before although it feels like something has changed. I think it's interesting that we had the February snow/storm blitz 3 years ago, and now one in March.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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2 minutes ago, rimetree said:

I'm guessing these periods have happened before although it feels like something has changed. I think it's interesting that we had the February snow/storm blitz 3 years ago, and now one in March.

Climate change...can't have it both ways. The warmth is here to stay, but huge storm surplus will regress?

Disagree.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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The rest ...

The models take a strong and compact mid level closed low and associated trough axis currently over the middle MS valley off to east today and through the TN/OH Valleys tonight along with a well-defined area of low pressure. By early Tuesday, this energy will be moving into the central Appalachians, but there will be additional upstream shortwave energy digging southeast across the Midwest that arrives and captures the lead energy. This will lead to an amplifying trough/closed 500/700 mb low center that crosses the central Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic region Tuesday night through early Wednesday. Multiple low centers will be redeveloping near the East Coast as energy transfer commences, with one low crossing SC on Tuesday and one developing just east of the Delmarva. These lows should consolidate east of the Delmarva by Wednesday morning before then lifting northeast offshore southern New England through early Thursday. The models show decent agreement at least on the larger scale with this coastal low transition and evolution, although the 00Z UKMET does look to be too weak with the deepening closed low and its surface reflection along the East Coast. The 00Z CMC also looks to be perhaps a tad too progressive in lifting the system off to the northeast and away from New England by Thursday. The 12Z NAM, 12Z GFS and the 00Z ECMWF cluster together a bit better and have stronger ensemble support. So, will be preferring a blend of NAM, GFS and ECMWF at this point with the overall model mass fields.

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