WinterWolf Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 9:00 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Who’s Bob and is he a met? Expand Bariclinic zone...no MET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 8:57 PM, WinterWolf said: Wow really? You and the NWS Wiz...Im pulling for both of you. If I see 3 inches I think that’ll be a win...but who knows lol. Expand There will be a substantial gradient for sure and I did a map update a few hours ago...I did explain in my post though that I think the lower portion of these ranges would verify and the higher end of the ranges would only verify if we saw heavier snows push farther northward and also persist for a longer duration. What I also kinda noticed (and not sure if this would be a reason) but the models (and some quicker than others) sort of weaken out the initial area of low pressure and re-develop a second low quite far east of the Cape. I wonder if during this process some of these models just really cut off snow back this far west. But given how the mid-levels look to evolve I would think this initial low continues to strengthen much more as we move into the evening. It sort of appears like convection which develops over the Atlantic on the models takes precedence and models focus on this and generate the new low and robs moisture back this way. That can obviously happen but the convection modeled didn't appear to be that intense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 9:03 PM, WinterWolf said: Perhaps?? I respect your knowledge and expertise for sure....you know your stuff big time, but from following along here during the winter, I have to say it sure doesn’t seem that way?? But thank you for the debate :-) and info. Expand I get it, it seems like there are some clunkers every now and then. But the last study I saw done showed that the Euro on average had a smaller track error and smaller intensity error for East Coast cyclones. Until I see something refuting that, I'm going to trust that's still the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 8:58 PM, dryslot said: I would no bet against it. Expand That’s the point. It’s not perfect, it’s the better model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Well thankfully severe season starts in like 6-7 weeks and we won't have to deal with crap like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 9:09 PM, weatherwiz said: Well thankfully severe season starts in like 6-7 weeks and we won't have to deal with crap like this. Expand Yeah, our severe threats usually pan out as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 9:09 PM, weatherwiz said: Well thankfully severe season starts in like 6-7 weeks and doesn’t really exist around here, so I won’t need to waste my time Expand FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 9:09 PM, weatherwiz said: Well thankfully severe season starts in like 6-7 weeks and we won't have to deal with crap like this. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 9:10 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah, our severe threats usually pan out as modeled. Expand That is a true statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 9:10 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah, our severe threats usually pan out as modeled. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Won't be too much longer. The snow is starting to break through higher up. It looks like it's sinking south on base 1, it's really not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Why the DC hatred greedy muthufukkas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 9:10 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah, our severe threats usually pan out as modeled. Expand On 3/21/2018 at 9:09 PM, weatherwiz said: Well thankfully severe season starts in like 6-7 weeks and we won't have to deal with crap like this. Expand Severe season here is an absolute waste of time 90% of the threats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 9:11 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: FYP Expand mean On 3/21/2018 at 9:11 PM, OceanStWx said: Expand get ready...it's gotta be an active one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Regarding the Euro vs anything else...what model would anyone use? The friggin NAM was laughable as a whole this winter. Fun to look at with amazing snow maps...they were just wrong, GFS? Puh-leeze... The ICON? Ukie? The Euro isn’t infailable, but it’s the best we got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 9:13 PM, weathafella said: Why the DC hatred greedy muthufukkas? Expand Because the mid atlantic smells like an open sore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 9:13 PM, weatherwiz said: mean get ready...it's gotta be an active one Expand I hope you get to head out west this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 9:13 PM, weathafella said: Why the DC hatred greedy muthufukkas? Expand Who hated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 9:13 PM, weathafella said: Why the DC hatred greedy muthufukkas? Expand Nuking the servers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 9:14 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: I hope you get to head out west this year Expand I don't think it will get to happen this year but (and I saw this every year) next year I seriously should. I'll be done with school next fall and I can start putting the money away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 9:09 PM, weatherwiz said: Well thankfully severe season starts in like 6-7 weeks and we won't have to deal with crap like this. Expand Oh, as usual, you will deal with many more severe busts but.... a lot less people notice or care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Yeah people were blaming them for crashing the forum, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Ok I have some flakes falling ..game on Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 We're getting higher rH values within the SGZ and also look at this area of strengthening and increasing omega over DE and just off the coast...this will be swinging through later on and when this happens we should rip pretty good. Only question is for how long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 8:59 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Bob and Bryan Expand Show my post where I said no snow. Here’s a hint, you won’tHere’s a hint, you won’t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 starting to pick up a bit more in Danbury Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 9:13 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: Regarding the Euro vs anything else...what model would anyone use? The friggin NAM was laughable as a whole this winter. Fun to look at with amazing snow maps...they were just wrong, GFS? Puh-leeze... The ICON? Ukie? The Euro isn’t infailable, but it’s the best we got. Expand Agree for sure. It just doesn’t seem as sharp as it did before it’s upgrade that’s all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 9:15 PM, CoastalWx said: Who hated? Expand A few fuk DC posts earlier. I am not sure they exceeded 6. Philadelphia has 4 as of 2pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 9:17 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah people were blaming them for crashing the forum, lol Expand It was their fault. It always is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 9:20 PM, WinterWolf said: Agree for sure. It just doesn’t seem as sharp as it did before it’s upgrade that’s all. Expand I think earlier this winter I was really attributing it to the progressive flow...but since that has largely changed, it does not seem much better. But overall still better than the rest. Hopefully it improves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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