RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 This should ease Ryan’s worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 1:49 AM, snowman21 said: Yeah and along with that the average snow gradient. Someone posted a map here a while back. If I just move north of the parkway, I likely gain 3-5 inches of average snow. Expand I am 1 mile north of the parkway. Its really I95 to the coast which has the steepest. 2 storms ago Fairfield center had 10 inches matching my total while the coast of Fairfield had only 2.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 2:04 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: This should ease Ryan’s worries. Expand Yeah I guess. Since I messed with my earlier forecast I dunno haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 2:06 AM, CT Rain said: Yeah I guess. Since I messed with my earlier forecast I dunno haha Expand I can draw your final map for you. Good statewide storm, be at ease tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 NAM goes to town after 00z. Good deep lift moving in from the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 2:06 AM, CT Rain said: Yeah I guess. Since I messed with my earlier forecast I dunno haha Expand I was surprised that you hacked everything so soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 2:09 AM, CoastalWx said: NAM goes to town after 00z. Good deep lift moving in from the SE. Expand Man, all about that ULL...flex it just enough and it can rip some goodies in from the SE. This run a lot better for that obviously. 00z RPM looking better for eastern areas too so far through 27 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Shellacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 huuuuuuuge hit for sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Soooooo - EURO was out to lunch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 2:11 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was surprised that you hacked everything so soon. Expand Probably shouldn't have... but didn't feel comfortable running with 6-12" for BDL when the Euro/EPS had 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 This run will wake the Boston peeps out of their 12z Euro/18z NAM hangover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 2:12 AM, CT Rain said: Probably shouldn't have... but didn't feel comfortable running with 6-12" for BDL when the Euro/EPS had 1". Expand If the NAM is correct the shoreline from Stratford east will have sleet and mixed for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 2:12 AM, CT Rain said: Probably shouldn't have... but didn't feel comfortable running with 6-12" for BDL when the Euro/EPS had 1". Expand Yea, I wrote about that conundrum in my final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 lol...this model is such a joke. It’s almost impossible to forecast with it. Crushed, whiff, crushed. Kevin’s right...toss it in the rubbish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 2:14 AM, ORH_wxman said: This run will wake the Boston peeps out of their 12z Euro/18z NAM hangover. Expand AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 2:15 AM, EastonSN+ said: If the NAM is correct the shoreline from Stratford east will have sleet and mixed for a few hours. Expand maybe towards the beginning but I don't see much mixing...even at the CT coast. Winds should be predominately out of the NE. Coastal CT might rock this one out really well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 2:16 AM, dendrite said: lol...this model is such a joke. It’s almost impossible to forecast with it. Crushed, whiff, crushed. Kevin’s right...toss it in the rubbish. Expand Congrats on midlevel goodies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Wow Huge hit... this almost shifts the best dynamics northeast... and snowing well into ThursdayMore organized h5 and more resembles last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 2:11 AM, ORH_wxman said: Man, all about that ULL...flex it just enough and it can rip some goodies in from the SE. This run a lot better for that obviously. 00z RPM looking better for eastern areas too so far through 27 hours. Expand It’s got a slug of nice forcing pushing in thanks to the ULL. Nice lobe of vorticityz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 2:16 AM, dendrite said: lol...this model is such a joke. It’s almost impossible to forecast with it. Crushed, whiff, crushed. Kevin’s right...toss it in the rubbish. Expand Were getting crushed this run, I can't buy it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 2:14 AM, ORH_wxman said: This run will wake the Boston peeps out of their 12z Euro/18z NAM hangover. Expand Good evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 2:16 AM, dendrite said: lol...this model is such a joke. It’s almost impossible to forecast with it. Crushed, whiff, crushed. Kevin’s right...toss it in the rubbish. Expand 3k NAM has mixed precip getting to central CT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Looks like fairly widespread 1-1.5'' QPF for CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Gonna wait to see the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 2:17 AM, weatherwiz said: maybe towards the beginning but I don't see much mixing...even at the CT coast. Winds should be predominately out of the NE. Coastal CT might rock this one out really well Expand Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 wow...did a point-and-click sounding in CT for tomorrow evening and saw 150 J of MUcape with pretty decent lapse rates. Thundersnow!!!! Also...can't always but the precipitation depiction graphics...you get just sliver of the thermal profile kissing the 0C isotherm and they go mix happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 2:20 AM, EastonSN+ said: 3k NAM has mixed precip getting to central CT! Expand Snow88 will find the one close run of the 30 different solutions it had with this system and say it did a good job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 2:29 AM, dendrite said: Snow88 will find the one close run of the 30 different solutions it had with this system and say it did a good job. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 2:20 AM, EastonSN+ said: 3k NAM has mixed precip getting to central CT! Expand HRRR seems to have next to no mixing at all, for whatever its worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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