40/70 Benchmark Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just drew up a map that I feel pretty good about...gonna wait to release until some 00z data rolls in, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:38 AM, Damage In Tolland said: RPM continues to ramp up. Earlier it had nothing in NW CT to ALB. Obviously this is only showing that area in this snapshot Expand Looks like nothing to me in Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:38 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Just drew up a map that I feel pretty good about...gonna wait to release until some 00z data rolls in, though. Expand Maybe wait until 12z tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:17 AM, CoastalWx said: I feel like the euro ate it at 12z. Maybe we see a compromise, but I’m not in on that 2” of slush it has for most of the area. Expand No way. I feel like last night's 00z EURO is a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:40 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Maybe wait until 12z tomorrow? Expand I don't think releasing a final call 18 hours before go time is unreasonable. Maybe I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:31 AM, ORH_wxman said: This is such an ugly forecast. The conflicting model trends...not just the solutions themselves. I still think a decent amount of SNE is going to be in a favorable banding spot at some point during the storm. Hoping that 00z provides some model convergence. Expand Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 light sleet at EEB, EWR, and LGA w/flurries at JFK dew point depressions of 20-25 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:39 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks like nothing to me in Albany. Expand Maybe .. but the point is 2 hours ago NW CT was black. Trend is up up up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:32 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Euro was awful on the SE convection like we mentioned. Compare it to what is reality. It’s why it was so flat Expand I hear ya... but not sure how to extrapolate that better SE convection. On the one hand, we know it can pump up downstream heights. On the other hand, multiple mini surface lows get spit further out east and disrupt the tight mechanics we would have otherwise. In fact, if you trend 0z-->12z Euro and 6z-->12z-->18z 12k NAM, that southeast convection has improved with every run, but the outcomes up here have been worse. We'll see. Another nail-biter in a month full of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:50 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Maybe .. but the point is 2 hours ago NW CT was black. Trend is up up up Expand Right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:50 AM, wxsniss said: I hear ya... but not sure how to extrapolate that better SE convection. On the one hand, we know it can pump up downstream heights. On the other hand, multiple mini surface lows get spit further out east and disrupt the tight mechanics we would have otherwise. In fact, if you trend 0z-->12z Euro and 6z-->12z-->18z 12k NAM, that southeast convection has improved with every run, but the outcomes up here have been worse. We'll see. Another nail-biter in a month full of them. Expand Probably going to end up as its always looked...moderate event. If this thing weren't skunked up here, there would be an enormous gradient with that confluence....won't be as drastic now because amounts won't be insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:53 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Probably going to end up as its always looked...moderate event. If this thing weren't skunked up here, there would be an enormous gradient with that confluence....won't be as drastic now because amounts won't be insane. Expand Has the confluence increased in modeling today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:50 AM, wxsniss said: I hear ya... but not sure how to extrapolate that better SE convection. On the one hand, we know it can pump up downstream heights. On the other hand, multiple mini surface lows get spit further out east and disrupt the tight mechanics we would have otherwise. In fact, if you trend 0z-->12z Euro and 6z-->12z-->18z 12k NAM, that southeast convection has improved with every run, but the outcomes up here have been worse. We'll see. Another nail-biter in a month full of them. Expand I feel like the storm off NJ/SNE now is most critical to how everything evolves and the downstream ridge is able to amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:43 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think releasing a final call 18 hours before go time is unreasonable. Maybe I'm wrong. Expand It’s a tough forecast esp up there, prob best to hold off and get it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:53 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Probably going to end up as its always looked...moderate event. If this thing weren't skunked up here, there would be an enormous gradient with that confluence....won't be as drastic now because amounts won't be insane. Expand Agree Same issues we discussed from the beginning... occludes too far south... lots of confluence to overcome... and a too-many-chefs situation with the first shortwave and multiple surface lows ejecting east... Not having the luxury of waiting for 0z tonight, I told co-workers 4-8 in the Boston area, and I'm nervous going against the mass-hysteria work emails, but the Euro/NAM/GFS trends seem clear across 3-4 cycles. I agree with you the 0z Euro last night seems like a good hedge for now. Now watch 0z NAM go Wolf of Wallstreet on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:59 AM, CT Rain said: I feel like the storm off NJ/SNE now is most critical to how everything evolves and the downstream ridge is able to amplify. Expand I agree as that seemed to muddle some of the 18z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:08 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Who are the posters in SW ct / S Central ct Hothh Metagraphica Wiz? Jc-Ct Winter wolf That sw and s ct area usually seems as it's in another world to me But they are looking like tons of potential Expand I am.. I live on the Seymour/oxford line in west central new haven county on Fairfield county line/ also @4seasons in south central near new haven plus @buildingsciencewx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:57 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Has the confluence increased in modeling today Expand Confluence. Confluence. Confluence. Tired of hearing the word, frankly. Confluence is gone by 0z tonight. Confluence was the story for past several days through this afternoon. With confluence out, issue now is how much UL downstream ridging we can manage... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 9:52 PM, Go Kart Mozart said: It's about time! Expand Didn't we jack in the 2nd storm this month? Also the early December storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:08 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Who are the posters in SW ct / S Central ct Hothh Metagraphica Wiz? Jc-Ct Winter wolf That sw and s ct area usually seems as it's in another world to me But they are looking like tons of potential Expand Im not SW CT. I’m extreme southwest Hartford County..about a mile and a half from the line of extreme northern New Haven county. Box has me at 8-12, OKX has 12-18 a mile and a half from me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstoned Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 So, when the models obfuscate and contradict, maybe some good old fashioned observing as of yore might prove illustrative: --Driving east, home from Springfield this evening, noted the north to northwest horizon lined with sunset along a far border of bluish sky. Indication: the high cloud shield is not advancing far north. --Flags showed the breeze to be out of the north, as opposed to northeast or east --My arthritic right hip from decades of disc golf torque is not aching as it was prior to our past 3 March, snow-hole under performers. Conclusion: The National Weather service has been correct to lower expected snow totals in West Central and Western Massachusetts, and might profit from lowering them still further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spaizzo Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:08 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Who are the posters in SW ct / S Central ct Hothh Metagraphica Wiz? Jc-Ct Winter wolf That sw and s ct area usually seems as it's in another world to me But they are looking like tons of potential Expand I live in Ansonia near Woodbridge/Derby line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Looking at WV, you'd be hard-pressed to tell that the NJ system is even there. Also, just classic looking loop. Nice tilt, solid convection. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=continental-conus-08-48-0-100-1&checked=map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:08 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Who are the posters in SW ct / S Central ct Hothh Metagraphica Wiz? Jc-Ct Winter wolf That sw and s ct area usually seems as it's in another world to me But they are looking like tons of potential Expand Me 47 inches so far this season. 9.5 last storm 10 the storm before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:08 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Who are the posters in SW ct / S Central ct Hothh Metagraphica Wiz? Jc-Ct Winter wolf That sw and s ct area usually seems as it's in another world to me But they are looking like tons of potential Expand Me, Milford CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just catching up. Harpoon beer night at yard house in Dedham. Very good place. Incredible difference in guidance. Literally some models spitting out a few inches and some over a foot. middle ground as usual? Tough to bet against euro... but it def could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:19 AM, cut said: Driving around Trumbull it is amazing at the tree damage that is evident. I think there are a lot of compromised trees as well that may get finished off in this storm. Expand A tree fell on my house 2 storms ago with the 10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 1:20 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Just catching up. Harpoon beer night at yard house in Dedham. Very good place. Incredible difference in guidance. Literally some models spitting out a few inches and some over a foot. middle ground as usual? Tough to bet against euro... but it def could be wrong. Expand Are there a bunch of Yard Houses? Feel like I used to go to a place with that name in Back Bay or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:28 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said: When i actually think about it (.000001%) Of the time. SW ct folks aren't all that bad. They are like the red headed step children of the subforum, just because of their location relative to the populous that posts. Im really hoping they get spanked silly and get deformed this storm. Maybe some 20: loli's. OKX is dropping back and chucken em, how about a f'n completion! Expand We have all the money as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:17 AM, snowman21 said: I'm in the SW CT club as well. The furthest SW point in New England as a matter fact. Expand Byram FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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