Typhoon Tip Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Substantial .. in fact, outstanding individual GEF ensemble member support for a negative tilt to eventual closure at mid levels to evolve from the TV to the BM in the 500 mb. Meanwhile from the other more dependable/traditional model cluster, the EPS blend has been more amplified and suggestive of potential quite consistently for the last two days. The Euro has a known seaward bias ...typically correctable toward the west from middle ranges into shorter ranges, as has been purported on more than a single occasion by NCEP/WPC discussion content over the last several months. This is a prime candidate for said correction, and this 12z run this morning sold me pretty hard on the idea - I don't believe the trend is finished yet, either. I suspect from here on out we'll less frequent distracting solutions - from all of the models for that matter - and more so in favor/coalesce around at least a moderate impact, more pervasive/classic kind of I-95 (DCA-PWM) evolution. Also, the teleconnection from that GEFs camp has, as of last night introduced intriguing signal from the PNA that was not there in previous cycles. Meanwhile, the NAO is entering a rising mode change through this week, which will offer storm track corrections closer to the coast. A subtle rise in the PNA appears to transmit at least a transient, well timed western conus ridge rollout through the west... We have multiple signals converging here. Notables: -- The mid levels closing off and collocating with the 700 mb sets up at least a transient deep layer easterly anomaly in the troposphere, which climatologically usually connotes an impressive transport, and with nascent and still impressive late season cold sourcing/polar high pressure parked quintessentially over eastern Ontario, these are two impressive leading/identifiable factors meaningful results (to put it nicely..) -- Unlike previous events, this is a slow mover. The last system was slow'ish, but still moved by.. This guy appear to be moving more at the planetary wave translation speed as opposes to S/W move through the flow at faster speeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 18, 2018 Author Share Posted March 18, 2018 Of course ... the 18z GFS goes out of it's way to make this a progressive system that does not actually move slowly... I see the Euro/Ukmet and the EPS as taking nearly 24 hours to clear our quadrant as more telling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdazed Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 This would be for Wednesday PM-Night (at least in RI), correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 8 minutes ago, snowdazed said: This would be for Wednesday PM-Night (at least in RI), correct? Most likely but the euro suite was starting it earlier. Like Wednesday morning or even predawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdazed Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Yeesh. Local mets are still calling it a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 These 00z runs tonight will help determine in a long way in what happens for Tuesday's lead shortwave system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 hour ago, snowdazed said: Yeesh. Local mets are still calling it a miss. It def could still miss but I would be telling people that a hit is very much still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 hour ago, snowdazed said: Yeesh. Local mets are still calling it a miss. Yeah they will be calling for a miss until the EURO and every model agrees on a potential major hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Yeah they will be calling for a miss until the EURO and every model agrees on a potential major hit Probably a smart move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Probably a smart move. Yeah probably, but the 12z EURO was way further amped then the previous runs. I suppose the EURO would be between a NAM and GFS track as of their 18z runs today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Quite the leap NW on the 21z SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 It’s coming. along the immediate coast, be fearful of precip type as the confluence in se canada can be very easily shattered if the multiple vorts consolidate ala nam. Plus the block is transitioning from - to +. This could hug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s coming. along the immediate coast, be fearful of precip type as the confluence in se canada can be very easily shattered if the multiple vorts consolidate ala nam. Plus the block is transitioning from - to +. This could hug. If this does hit here, I fully expect sleet/rain at times. But could definitely accumulate in the morning and overnight as well as times of heavy rates. My greenhouse, without any heating unit running had a temperature of 74 degrees this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 58 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Probably a smart move. It’s irresponsible to not at least mention that it could hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weenie Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 What is a KU storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Juicy h5 look on nam. That initial wave is bye bye allowing the second to tilt the trough favorably now....oh o. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
summerthyme Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 23 minutes ago, Weenie said: What is a KU storm? Kangaroo Upset. It's a reference to when the former Los Angeles Kangaroos beat the Seattle Mariners in a surprise upset game. So in this circumstance, it refers to a strong system overcoming climatological factors to produce large amounts of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 11 minutes ago, Weenie said: What is a KU storm? Kocin/Uccellini storm. Literally wrote the book on east coast snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The confluence is much stronger to the NE than it was at 18z, will probably end up further south this run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 10 minutes ago, Weenie said: What is a KU storm? Kocin/Uccellini Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Juicy h5 look on nam. That initial wave is bye bye allowing the second to tilt the trough favorably now....oh o. **** streak is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Looks like it’ll be south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Consolidated vort maxes with a better trough should offset the stronger crap streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: The confluence is much stronger to the NE than it was at 18z, will probably end up further south this run.... Good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Looks like it’ll be south Yup..and a bit colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Yea, too squished. But I like the look below it. Just need it a little less pressed and the sharper trough should do its thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Razor sharp cutoff to the precip on the NW side, But hey, Whats a 400+mi shift east in one run on the Nam.................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdazed Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Is the cutoff offshore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 SE Mass special on that run. That confluence means business. Not only can it force the system way south, it can also create a razor sharp cutoff in the precip shield. If that trends stronger, game over for anything meaningful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: SE Mass special on that run. That confluence means business. Not only can it force the system way south, it can also create a razor sharp cutoff in the precip shield. If that trends stronger, game over for anything meaningful. And if it’s weaker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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