Fozz Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 30 minutes ago, THG said: This has me getting in onto the action. Is that a 30 mm or so equivalent for me i see? It's not a good idea to ask too many questions about your own backyard. You know where you live and models aren't going to precisely nail down the fine details at this range, or perhaps ever. Being in Bel Air, you're probably in the same boat as me and other semi-northern MD people. We've got a decent shot at a solid event, but it's far from a sure thing, especially since we're now in the latter part of March. The true northern people near the M/D line (psuhoffman, Highstakes, and some others) usually have the best chances of scoring and are least likely to have issues with mixing, and it's all because of climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gstern1994 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 What would be a decent snowfall estimate for Western Loudoun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 There are too many details to work out still to know how much snow will fall where. Lets limit the “how much for MBY” stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah I can understand the difference between YOUR yard and mine...but not so much Bob's yard (or D.C.) and mine. Like how sometimes Balt. City does better than D.C...Is it latitude? A further north UHI versus one further south? Lol Sometimes latitude matters. Sometimes a warm nose or dry slot can creep up to DC or southern Moco while Baltimore is better off. There are so many different ways a storm can play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Source? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 4 minutes ago, H2O said: Source? Facebook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, AcePuppy said: "DO NOT let the March sun angle fool you.Richmond was a prime example with the last system" Hm....What's Richmond's elevation? (is it a UHI or just a town?) Just thought I'd highlight that since we're talking about March climo snow accumulations... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 I’m liking where I am in ellicott city for these storms! Away from the city but close enough for the QPF. Expect Olney to Howard country to northern Baltimore and Carroll counties to do the best. Its March. Baltimore and dc May see 1+ qpf and only half stick. Best chance is if the bulk of precip comes after dark Wednesday. Not looking like it. I hope people in central va aren’t fooled by the clown maps. 850s will kill them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 8 minutes ago, H2O said: There are too many details to work out still to know how much snow will fall where. Lets limit the “how much for MBY” stuff. Yea, we all have access to the same stuff and what isnt free gets posted anyway. Everyone needs to make their own call. It's really not that hard. We're still 72 hours out from the end of the event too. Nobody can say with any certainty how it all works out. This isn't a cut and dried deal either with multiple pieces moving through over several days. The closer you live to the cities and south and east the worse off you are. That's all we got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: "DO NOT let the March sun angle fool you.Richmond was a prime example with the last system" Hm....What's Richmond's elevation? (is it a UHI or just a town?) Just thought I'd highlight that since we're talking about March climo snow accumulations... I don't recall seeing much other than grass accumulations there from that. Not sure what the point of that statement was. Richmond is 166' and certainly is an UHI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 https://mobile.twitter.com/SteveRudinABC7/status/975474404896460801 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 7 minutes ago, mappy said: Facebook It’s not bad but I wonder who made it. Like legit met or hobbyist? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just now, EastCoast NPZ said: ?? It starts tomorrow night. From the end of the event if you kept reading... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 8 minutes ago, AcePuppy said: Intersting neighbor. Bit premature in my opinion for that call whomever made it. Everything still evolving. Especially the second system part. We shall see as we are getting close to game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just now, yoda said: From the end of the event if you kept reading... Yeah, I caught that but too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 10 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: I don't recall seeing much other than grass accumulations there from that. Not sure what the point of that statement was. Richmond is 166' and certainly is an UHI. It covered everything including 64 in spots. Started around 1pm Mon and ended before 6pm. Glen Allen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 15 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Intersting neighbor. Bit premature in my opinion for that call whomever made it. Everything still evolving. Especially the second system part. We shall see as we are getting close to game time. I agree, if the author of this map remade it 24 hrs. from now, it would be different. Is that his or her final call? I would be more comfortable with the idea of more people getting more snow if the HP source of cold air in Canada was closer to Ogdensburg, New York than southern James Bay and the 50/50 was closer to the bench mark rather than 300 miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 51 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: In late March little things mean a lot. A few hundred feet of elevation, latitude, longitude, and even how developed the land is. I live ne of rockville in a very wooded area at just under 400'. I'll always do better than in town but Olney almost always does better than me because of elevation and latitude. In marginal events my yard falls in between the big winners and losers like 90% of the time. Could something break my way and let me beat areas that normally win? Sure, but that's a low odds proposition. I need to root for Olney to get destroyed so I can come in a close second behind them. If you live inside of 695 in an urban area then don't expect to beat Timonium or Parkville or wherever nearby. This late in the year has little factors that add up. In Jan when it's 15 degrees outside it doesn't matter. Whomever gets under the best lift wins. In late March concrete and trees and hills and all that stuff makes a noticeable difference I’m at 500’ and have yet to see it fully pay off. Olney seems to get lucky a lot though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 How do the gefs look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Pretty incredible GEFS. Better than even the EPS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just now, supernovasky said: Pretty incredible GEFS. Better than even the EPS! Please post pics! *salivates* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/975513310161457152 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, supernovasky said: I’m at 500’ and have yet to see it fully pay off. Olney seems to get lucky a lot though. Your area is pretty densely developed so all that asphalt and concrete does make a difference but with that being said there is no doubt over time that gburg does better than my yard. Unfortunately you moved just at the beginning of a really crappy stretch. If you were here in 13-15 winters there would have been a noticeable difference compared to rockville, Bethesda, silver spring, etc. Olney is pretty far removed from development and it really helps. It keeps getting better as you drive north on 97. Damascus is a jackpotville of MoCo. I worked in mt airy for 5 years and that 30 miles made a massive difference. I was working there during 12/5/09 and damn I'm glad I was. Double what I had at home. I watched the snow depth drop every like every mile south. If it makes you feel any better, you'll prob do better than me this week. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Your area is pretty densely developed so all that asphalt and concrete does make a difference but with that being said there is no doubt over time that gburg does better than my yard. Unfortunately you moved just at the beginning of a really crappy stretch. If you were here in 13-15 winters there would have been a noticeable difference compared to rockville, Bethesda, silver spring, etc. Olney is pretty far removed from development and it really helps. It keeps getting better as you drive north on 97. Damascus is a jackpotville of MoCo. I worked in mt airy for 5 years and that 30 miles made a massive difference. I was working there during 12/5/09 and damn I'm glad I was. Double what I had at home. I watched the snow depth drop every like every mile south. If it makes you feel any better, you'll prob do better than me this week. Lol Lol. It does, sorry. I'm really hoping I can cash in on being at 500' and catch the right end of a marginal temp event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 10 minutes ago, stormy said: I agree, if the author of this map remade it 24 hrs. from now, it would be different. Is that his or her final call? I would be more comfortable with the idea of more people getting more snow if the HP source of cold air in Canada was closer to Ogdensburg, New York than southern James Bay and the 50/50 was closer to the bench mark rather than 300 miles north. That’s what social media gives you...lots of opinions...who know it could be spot on. This is more game day forecasting than synoptic analysis. If we had an arctic damming high pressure maybe easy to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 I can't wait to see what the individual GEFS members look like. I mean, this is the highest ensemble mean I've seen from any model yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just now, supernovasky said: I can't wait to see what the individual GEFS members look like. I mean, this is the highest ensemble mean I've seen from any model yet. all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 For the first time all weekend I am starting to get interested. Wonder if I can top the 12/9 storm in my yard 6.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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