Fozz Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 4 minutes ago, Interstate said: and dont get me wrong... I would take this run 100% curious to see what the 3k does Me too, but I’d rather go by what the snow depth change map shows, especially with all the confusing mixing going on. Much more realistic IMO, but still a solid event for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just now, Fozz said: Me too, but I’d rather go by what the snow depth change map shows. Much more realistic IMO. Kuchera too IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 12k NAM is basically always out of it’s range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: IDK 32F 2m straddles 95. There's a warm layer around 850 mb for a good chunk of the first part of the storm but there's a really cold layer just above the surface up to 900 mb. The predominant ptype would probably be sleet until the second wave really takes over. Looked through soundings in moco verbatim on the 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 models are coming around to a more consolidated system not 2 waves...if they fully get there and we get ccb's the column will cool. Have to see how this shakes out in the next couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: models are coming around to a more consolidated system not 2 waves...if they fully get there and we get ccb's the column will cool. Have to see how this shakes out in the next couple runs. And long duration. The primary slows enough and I think we would prefer a consolidated solution vice waiting for wave 2. Whatevergets frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Still naso bad. I'd take this run any day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, Amped said: Insane H7 track though. Stalls over the Ohio Valley for 24hrs, then stalls off the Jersey Shore for at least 18. Yea we don’t want toooooo far north with that trend though. It’s an outlier for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 5 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Still naso bad. I'd take this run any day No way... too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just now, 87storms said: Yea we don’t want toooooo far north with that trend though. It’s an outlier for now. Luckily the NAM doesn't trend, it throws random blobs at a map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Did not like the last 2 runs of the nam for mby.. A north and warmer trend has begun in my opinion Edt: at least on the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 3km NAM looks decent with snow accumulation through 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 I find it so much easier....and more accurate...to not even look at the nam for winter events until under 24 hours. I have a hunch the gfs will move towards the euro but still disappoint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I find it so much easier....and more accurate...to not even look at the nam for winter events until under 24 hours. I have a hunch the gfs will move towards the euro but still disappoint Ohhh GFS....Did I hear someone say (or at least allude to) that it doesn't always do that great with two waves like this? (or perhaps the reference I'm thinking of was Dec. 2009) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 icon is a little north so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 10 minutes ago, yoda said: 3km NAM looks decent with snow accumulation through 60 Despite the 10:1 map looking good, the individual panels look really sleety. Remember that sleet is tallied the same as snow, and when you apply a 10:1 ratio, you get a really false impression about what is being depicted. The Ferrier map shows a general 1-2" snowfall through f60. To be clear, the NAM3 could easily be wrong with the details or simply too warm in the midlevels, but its depiction at least through 60h is a high-impact winter storm but not a great snowstorm for much of the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, high risk said: Despite the 10:1 map looking good, the individual panels look really sleety. Remember that sleet is tallied the same as snow, and when you apply a 10:1 ratio, you get a really false impression about what is being depicted. The Ferrier map shows a general 1-2" snowfall through f60. To be clear, the NAM3 could easily be wrong with the details or simply too warm in the midlevels, but its depiction at least through 60h is a high-impact winter storm but not a great snowstorm for much of the forum. Haven’t looked at the latest NAM but Kuchera on the Euro has been pretty great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 The 3k absolutely crushes my area. And it is cold all the way through the column. Close to double digit totals through 60 and a lot more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Yeah, 12km/3km NAM were a big sleet and freezing drizzle fest until fairly late in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psurulz Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Can u post the kuchera map for the euro please? For some reason I can't seem to find it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ohhh GFS....Did I hear someone say (or at least allude to) that it doesn't always do that great with two waves like this? (or perhaps the reference I'm thinking of was Dec. 2009) We're getting close to the time where reality is somewhere in between the gfs and euro. Neither model is perfect but the goalposts are narrowing now. I hope everyone understands that this storm will have some rain. Especially south of i70. Could be a lot of rain too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just now, csnavywx said: Yeah, 12km/3km NAM were a big sleet and freezing drizzle fest until fairly late in the run. I assume we should expect that in late March east of 81and south of 70. Amy frozen will do as I haven’t seen much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 That's new. Haven't seen LWX put either of the zones in the 3rd level of potential impact since GB '16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 RGEM looks decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Thanks. I commented about the Ferrier and got scolded. Some on here are ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We're getting close to the time where reality is somewhere in between the gfs and euro. Neither model is perfect but the goalposts are narrowing now. I hope everyone understands that this storm will have some rain. Especially south of i70. Could be a lot of rain too. So now I'm wondering about what period(s) of time would travel impacts be more likely...(particularly wondering about Tuesday evening onward) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: models are coming around to a more consolidated system not 2 waves...if they fully get there and we get ccb's the column will cool. Have to see how this shakes out in the next couple runs. I was thinking this, checking the last cycle of models, it does seem like they're trying to consolidate more. I would think that should be generally favorable for us, and (I believe) is a trend toward what was shown originally mid-late last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 It's another transfer and they mostly don't work and especially this Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Thanks. I commented about the Ferrier and got scolded. Some on here are ridiculous Yes but when you were commenting on it... the column showed snow... now it is show sleet/freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 GFS continues it's slower trend with the 1st wave. It's been ongoing for several runs so it's not just a tick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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