wasnow215 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 6 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: I'm not sure he is excited... his first guess is very different than what the new models are showing. His first guess map was based on southern VA getting hit hard again with the second wave and Northern VA and MD with the first. Yeah he just put on FB that big changes coming with his first call map tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, poolz1 said: EPS looking sweet...Lots of very nice hits and jump up in the mean from 00z 6” now crosses through DC. Mean QPF is 1” Baltimore/south with 1.2” Stafford/south and eastern areas near the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Hey guys, from the Southeast forum here! Looks like yall have a legitimate shot at this one... how does the EPS Mean look for southern VA? I just edited my previous post...take a look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, wasnow215 said: Yeah he just put on FB that big changes coming with his first call map tonight. I thought his first guess map was way off from what I've seen in here. 1 minute ago, nj2va said: 6” now crosses through DC. Mean QPF is 1” Baltimore/south with 1.2” Stafford/south and eastern areas near the bay. Is this for the entire event through Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Yea, EPS is great. best run of the year. Control is better than the op across the board. Go europe and canada! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, nj2va said: 6” now crosses through DC. Mean QPF is 1” Baltimore/south with 1.2” Stafford/south and eastern areas near the bay. Yeah, nice looking mean for just about everyone. We are moving in the right direction for a change! I am just expecting the rug to be pulled but we are getting close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just now, snowmagnet said: I thought his first guess map was way off from what I've seen in here. Is this for the entire event through Wednesday? Yes, thats the whole event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, poolz1 said: I just edited my previous post...take a look Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Looking through the eps solutions, there's a number that hit hard between 18z tues and 0z wed with temps crashing. Not optimal timing to say the least but plenty of heavy rate/cold temp members in there. Wave 2 looks mostly like the op with most members but some notable ones with a mini-CCB through the region with impressive totals overnight into wed. Some stripe our region with .75 during that period. My money isn't on that solution because it's probably best to stick with the op but there is a window of upside to watch for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 30 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: I thought his first guess map was way off from what I've seen in here. Is this for the entire event through Wednesday? Yeah first guess is there...next one is first call. Two distinct ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 This is a tough setup. Still a lot of stuff coming onshore in the pac, including the trailing jet streak which can make a big difference with the evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 NAM is way slower with the first wave. Still on the IL/IN border at 39hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 NAM looks like trash at 00z Wednesday. Still very jumpy run to run and a little beyond its useful range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 13 minutes ago, Amped said: NAM is way slower with the first wave. Still on the IL/IN border at 39hrs. Our first run since storm mode. NAM looks warmer at 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Right at ORF at 60. Money location. Thermals ehh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 This looks like it is setting up for a big hit for round 2 looks like lots of mixed precip with wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Crazy NAM run, way less supressive with the 50/50 low. H5 just stalls over S IND and amplifies. I'd expect 3.0" liquid from a NAM run with that look. Unfortunately it's a lot warmer too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: Right at ORF at 60. Money location. Thermals ehh. Column is garbage. I don’t think one flake falls in the area. At least thru 60hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Nam’d as far as precip is concerned. Temps will be dicey for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, mattb65 said: This looks like it is setting up for a big hit for round 2 looks like lots of mixed precip with wave 1 IDK 32F 2m straddles 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Well we diff got the second wave involved this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 66hrs we have cooled and snow is working in. 985 100 miles east of Cape May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 It looks like the low south west VA is screwing the 850s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 To borrow Jeb's phrase, 18Z 12k NAM shellacks my yard and westward into the higher elevations of the panhandles. Heavy front-end thump, then gets mixy for most of Tuesday afternoon with surface temps below freezing, then flips back to heavy snow again overnight into Wednesday a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 We want the upper level low further south than what the nam is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 and dont get me wrong... I would take this run 100% curious to see what the 3k does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Fine for an idea of course but as Bob Chill has said outside of 48 hours NAM paints poss pictures only. Notice after forty eight hrs changes quite a bit run after run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Insane H7 track though. Stalls over the Ohio Valley for 24hrs, then stalls off the Jersey Shore for at least 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 3k NAM looks a bit better with 850s. Sleet line farther East at 1z Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Some sort of frozen precip for 30 hours plus...yeah it’s ok even if I don’t jackpot. Huge event as depicted for the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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