showmethesnow Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS is now colder with wave 1. Heavy snow into DC at 18z Also more aggressive with snowfall for the region with 6-10 region wide and pockets of 12 inches. eta: My bad, had wrong snowfall map up. Snowdepth change shows 4 to 8 region wide with some heavier pockets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Also more aggressive with snowfall for the region with 6-10 region wide and pockets of 12 inches. Yup..I'd probably go 4 to 8 based on everything I'm seeing..of course discounting the crazy Euro solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 GFS at 27hr is about as high potential for improvement as it gets. I think warmth is the biggest problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Yup..I'd probably go 4 to 8 based on everything I'm seeing..of course discounting the crazy Euro solution See my edit. Freaking rookie/weenie mistake on my part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 hour ago, TSSN+ said: This isn’t confusing or anything lol. I think you’re making it confusing. LWX is treating it as two different storms. Warnings and advisories for some today as those places will mix and snow. Watches for everyone for tomorrow that will upgrade to warnings for those who fit the criteria of a warning, probably later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 44 minutes ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: It's just a total beatdown. How is this happening?? I was sure the Euro was drunk Will by i don't care thread be retired? That was a really fun thread and it worked quite well. Winter Storm Ji! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohwxguy Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I assume LWX anticipating only minor impacts to the afternoon rush, perhaps because of the potential decrease in precip intensity? Otherwise they’d presumably issue winter weather advisories given the guidance showing temperature profiles supportive of mixed precip for this afternoon/evening for the DC and Baltimore metros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 15 minutes ago, mappy said: I think you’re making it confusing. LWX is treating it as two different storms. Warnings and advisories for some today as those places will mix and snow. Watches for everyone for tomorrow that will upgrade to warnings for those who fit the criteria of a warning, probably later today. Well all models showing lots of sleet here and even snow now. Don’t see why not like rest of offices just upgrade now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Well all models showing lots of sleet here and even snow now. Don’t see why not like rest of offices just upgrade now. you seemed obsessed with this idea of a warning. 1) they don't want to get it wrong 2) plenty of time to wait for 12z models 3) they really don't want to get it wrong. Warnings trigger all kinds of actions within the counties. Those guys at LWX know what they are doing so I wouldn't sweat it. When its time they will issue it because there is no advantage not to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: Still in process of what I just saw with the Euro, Unreal. Just The ECMWF... Jesus.. One of the panels has a friggin' death band over me. Just unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 14 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Well all models showing lots of sleet here and even snow now. Don’t see why not like rest of offices just upgrade now. Don’t worry, it’s still going to snow if LWX doesn’t upgrade to warnings right now. Patience they will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Latest Hrrr looks juiced ...gets 1.00" + qpf by 7pm tonight for most . Looks as if it was an decent improvement from the previous run for the initial wave. Especially for the norther tier of MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidjd1994 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 The warning for Cecil county says 8-13 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 HRRR changes the city (DC) over to sleet between noon and 1pm. The afternoon commute is going to be terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said: Nam 3k jackpots my backyard. Can I cash in my chips now? Yes and mine as well which I am grateful. However, we are trying to keep this thread clean for storm analysis during storm mode. Let's try and respect the process of keeping the MBY posts in the other thread so the mods have less work and more time to enjoy the ride as well. Many thanks sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 The 3k is just.....I don' know what to say. Regionwide beat down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Enough OMG NAM EURO posts and stop the debate on LWX watches and warnings. Take it to banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidjd1994 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Wintry mix in southern Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 First thoughts after seeing all 6z guidance. There is an epic beat down coming! Guidance has caved to the euro. Northern and western areas will do better today. The metros will catch up tonight and tomorrow. Everyone should get over 6" and some much more. The Nams have been better the last year since the upgrade but my god did they struggle with this one. And they still are btw just not for us. But they to off on a tangent from all other guidance upstream from us causing an unnecessary panic in NJ and southeast New England right now. They just can't get a hold of this one past 24 hours and have shotgun sprayed solutions all over gods green earth every 6 hours. All other guidance is now in total agreement with the general evolution and only differ on meso scale features like banding. The ccb looks legit! Buckle up here we go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I don’t think we need this thread anymore. Let’s move to the obs thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlamSlam Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 LWX = failSent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: The NAM twins suggest that late afternoon, early evening (rush hour) may be a time to watch for a heavier band of precip to pull northward from roughly DC up to the PA line. At this time we see the leftover energy from the closed low to our west that breaks down rotate through our region. May equate to a quick inch or two of snow and/or a heavier burst of sleet depending on location and temps. Just noticed this when reviewing the models... EURO/GFS/NAM 12k/3k all seem to be in agreement of an 1pm/2pm ish switchover for DC to sleet or heavy snow... before we go into a lull that may never be a complete lull. Gonna be a mess for rush hour this afternoon if it is heavy enough. Definitely interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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