cae Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 NAM 3k is the most agressive with the warm air. Below are p-type maps for the 00z GFS, 00z ICON, 02z HRRR, 00z 3k NAM, and 18z Swiss model at noon tomorrow. This site doesn't have the RGEM, but it looks like it was somewhere between the 3k NAM and GFS, possibly closer to the 3k NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Cmc copy of the gfs. All globals look basically identical now. One left to go for a royal flush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Cmc copy of the gfs. All globals look basically identical now. One left to go for a royal flush. A royal flush...of the NAMs right down the toilet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Cmc copy of the gfs. All globals look basically identical now. One left to go for a royal flush. One trend I like a lot is guidance suggesting some good snows get in here before 10am Wednesday. With rates we could overcome radiation but the more we get when that's not an issue the better imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Updating my earlier forecast, seeing slightly more snow potential and heavier overall precip. Rain to sleet during the day Tuesday, snow line will make slow southward progress but halt near or just north of I-95 before event *** below. Sleet to snow Tuesday night becoming heavy in most of the region (except central Delmarva, sleet persists there). Intervals of moderate snow continuing most of Wednesday. For DCA, now expecting 1.5" total LE and 5.5" snow For IAD and BWI, 1.6" total LE and 8.5" snow IAD, 6.5" BWI For n MD into ne WV and parts of NOVA expecting 1.8" total LE and 10-15" snow. Local 20" max possible. For SBY 2.0" total LE and 2.5" snow mostly Wednesday daytime. *** During Tuesday afternoon to early evening a back-door cold front situation will develop pushing the sleet and snow bands south with thunder likely, winds backing ENE to NNE and quite gusty to 40 knots. This meso-scale cold frontal bulge will probably move as far south as central Chesapeake Bay and RIC before stalling and oscillating for the following few hours before resuming southeast progress and leaving the region by midnight. I expect this combination will lead to power outages as tree limbs get weighed down with heavy wet snow and fall across power lines. Snow ratios will improve during Wednesday after starting off in the 8:1 range, to 12:1 near the end of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 UKMET @ 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Ukmet is solid. Over .6” of qpf as snow for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Man taking a look at that mass to west and think-This is the Lesser event ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 HRDPS is a crush jobGoodnight all!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Ukie is decent but def a nj/NYC jack. Not mad at the run though. HDERPS is killer with banding. I'll go with that one for now. Lol I'm going to try to stay up for the euro but it's a struggle at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Here is your ccb banding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlamSlam Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Updating my earlier forecast, seeing slightly more snow potential and heavier overall precip. Rain to sleet during the day Tuesday, snow line will make slow southward progress but halt near or just north of I-95 before event *** below. Sleet to snow Tuesday night becoming heavy in most of the region (except central Delmarva, sleet persists there). Intervals of moderate snow continuing most of Wednesday. For DCA, now expecting 1.5" total LE and 5.5" snow For IAD and BWI, 1.6" total LE and 8.5" snow IAD, 6.5" BWI For n MD into ne WV and parts of NOVA expecting 1.8" total LE and 10-15" snow. Local 20" max possible. For SBY 2.0" total LE and 2.5" snow mostly Wednesday daytime. *** During Tuesday afternoon to early evening a back-door cold front situation will develop pushing the sleet and snow bands south with thunder likely, winds backing ENE to NNE and quite gusty to 40 knots. This meso-scale cold frontal bulge will probably move as far south as central Chesapeake Bay and RIC before stalling and oscillating for the following few hours before resuming southeast progress and leaving the region by midnight. I expect this combination will lead to power outages as tree limbs get weighed down with heavy wet snow and fall across power lines. Snow ratios will improve during Wednesday after starting off in the 8:1 range, to 12:1 near the end of the event. What is LE? Another abbreviation for QPF? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlamSlam Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 HRDPS is a crush jobGoodnight all!.That model should be CRUSHEDSent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, SlamSlam said: What is LE? Another abbreviation for QPF? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk Liquid equivalent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcflyermd68 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, SlamSlam said: What is LE? Another abbreviation for QPF? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk i was wondering that to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Here is your ccb banding 15z to 21z is smoked time if that is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, SlamSlam said: What is LE? Another abbreviation for QPF? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk Liquid Equivalent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Here is your ccb banding This panel is even better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlamSlam Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 i was wondering that toMy guess is liquid equivalent but not certain. Have never seen it tossed around like that.Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ukie is decent but def a nj/NYC jack. Not mad at the run though. HDERPS is killer with banding. I'll go with that one for now. Lol I'm going to try to stay up for the euro but it's a struggle at this point. Wasn't Ukie a little closer to OC last run? Wonder if the EURO will move more towards a nj Jack as well? (GFS was closer to that too, right?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 10 minutes ago, Cobalt said: HRDPS is a crush job Goodnight all! . I can't see DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 FWIW, and I know it is very little... most of the snow on HRDPS 10:1 map is from the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Total QPF on 00z HRDPS is over 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, Interstate said: This panel is even better Ohhh we can only wish! Drool worthy, but...seems guidance is becoming split on just how tucked the low is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 If only... over a foot of snow with probably another 2 to 3 hours of snow to go if we were to accept the 00z HRDPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Wasn't Ukie a little closer to OC last run? Wonder if the EURO will move more towards a nj Jack as well? (GFS was closer to that too, right?) It's not tucked by 48 hours. After 18z Wednesday its starts to drift east. Would have to see where it is as 36 and 42 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, Interstate said: This panel is even better This has just been a downright INCREDIBLE winter for the Delmarva region! Seems they do just fine in neutral ENSO winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's not tucked by 48 hours. After 18z Wednesday its starts to drift east. Would have to see where it is as 36 and 42 hours. You can on meteocentre http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Turning my neck and all, seems about 15-25mm precip from the CCB on the UKMET? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 For the record, hdrps is a legit meso model. It was tested in beta and feedback from Mets was very positive so it was made operational. It's not some random product. It's a high res version of the rgem and has proven to have real value as a meso. I won't blindly say its right but seeing that solution combined with what ive been thinking does makes sense and fits. Could easily be over done with precip but it's hard to ignore how pretty the banded structure is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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