yoda Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, high risk said: sure does, but man, it's because that sfc low is so far west. not sure if any other guidance has put the low right on the coastline. FWIW looks like the ICON joins RGEM in SLP placement... plus euro was pretty close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, cae said: I'm hugging the 18z Swiss super high-res model tonight. Flips me to rain/ice for about 4 hours tomorrow, otherwise all snow. Over 1" qpf as snow for most of the DC-Baltimore region. Could you link or show us the map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, high risk said: sure does, but man, it's because that sfc low is so far west. not sure if any other guidance has put the low right on the coastline. The Euro was pretty tucked at 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, high risk said: sure does, but man, it's because that sfc low is so far west. not sure if any other guidance has put the low right on the coastline. Euro was at 12z 981 right off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Again, this is more what I'm thinking than what the nams are doing... I had asked earlier about globals vs NAM at this range...If the globals tonight don't support the NAM...trust the globals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Could you link or show us the map? I can do both. https://weather.us/model-charts/virginia/2018031918/maryland/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20180322-0700z.html This model did well with temps during a mixed precip event earlier this year, but I haven't seen it do well consistently enough to have much confidence in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, yoda said: FWIW looks like the ICON joins RGEM in SLP placement... plus euro was pretty close 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The Euro was pretty tucked at 12Z. Upon further review, I can't really disagree with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Could you link or show us the map? Only map on maue site for it. Pretty nice just cut the 10:1 totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 GFS looking good so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 GFS remains steadfast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: GFS looking good so far... Yup boom right over MD. Oh it’s wonderful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 SREF pretty awesome. will end as dry snow/20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 People keep saying the ccb misses us. The best banding within the ccb sets up northeast of us according to most guidance (what else is new) but the ccb crosses right over our area. We're in the ccb associated snow all day Wednesday and there is always some nice banding that sets up towards the back edge of the ccb that's associated with the upper level energy not the frontogenetic banding that's setting up in NJ up through NYC. Maybe the nam is right but I've seen that qpf underdone enough times not to worry yet. Also we can't get the kind of banding NJ and NYC gets there. They are just north of the low and on the coast setting up great fromtogenesis forcing. If the low was sitting just southeast of us like that...say over Williamsburg...we would be raining. Their location north and further along the path as the storm starts to stack and become barotropic vs baroclinic plus their coastal location helps allow them to get that. It wouldn't work for us. That's not how we roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Again...broken record...the nams don't have the support from all other guidance. Gfs looks great. Still haS best moisture transport aimed at NJ/NYC but it is no slouch through our region. That tucked low is locked. We're going to see some pretty scenes wendesday. A tucked low with closed h5 to the south iS not going to be spotty weak disjointed precip in between. I'm sorry. I'm not buying into that camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohwxguy Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, Scraff said: GFS looking good so far... Low isn't quite as tucked as the 00z RGEM & ICON, or the 12z Euro, but workable. Looks like it has 0.3 QPF at DCA between 06z & 12z with temps probably just cold enough for snow. Would be good if DC can manage a couple inches on the ground before too much daylight. Then 0.23 QPF from 12z - 18z and 0.07 QPF from 18z - 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Total snow depth change even looks good. 3-5” across DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Can someone provide a compare contrast to this setup in January and March in reference to probable snow totals? I ask bc I know many years here high ratio snow predictions in March can be deceiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Every model was several MB too high with pressures over NC on the 6 and 12 hr forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 11 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: We can still get a good snowstorm with that kind of a setup, but a MECS+ is off the table. The upper levels need to be dynamic enough to “wring” out enough moisture. That is where my other concern is - despite the good 500 pass, the dynamics don’t look great. Check out the 700 vvs (12km). Slapping around NYC. But around here - bleh. Maybe the NAM is still correct that we pull down 0.3-0.5” QPF during the calendar day Wednesday, but light rates during midday late March daylight don’t give me warm fuzzies. yea that map shows some nice lift/wringing. i'm assuming in part due do better phasing between the 500 and surface lows. hopefully we can salvage something with a more tucked in coastal low. either way, this storm should have some interesting analysis once it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 GFS is money. 1/25/11 bowling ball. Too bad the varsity models come out an hour later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 The GFS is a further east with the surface low than the other guidance so far at 0Z. But it is a beautiful run. That ridiculously monstrous bowling ball is something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: People keep saying the ccb misses us. The best banding within the ccb sets up northeast of us according to most guidance (what else is new) but the ccb crosses right over our area. We're in the ccb associated snow all day Wednesday and there is always some nice banding that sets up towards the back edge of the ccb that's associated with the upper level energy not the frontogenetic banding that's setting up in NJ up through NYC. Maybe the nam is right but I've seen that qpf underdone enough times not to worry yet. Also we can't get the kind of banding NJ and NYC gets there. They are just north of the low and on the coast setting up great fromtogenesis forcing. If the low was sitting just southeast of us like that...say over Williamsburg...we would be raining. Their location north and further along the path as the storm starts to stack and become barotropic vs baroclinic plus their coastal location helps allow them to get that. It wouldn't work for us. That's not how we roll. Good to have ya back, PSU Hadn't thought of that side of it...great point (as usual!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: GFS is money. 1/25/11 bowling ball. Too bad the varsity models come out an hour later. Euro was money at 12z... should be again at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 0z GFS looks really nice for the region. Much better than 18z at the surface, and right in line with what one would expect given the h5 look and the low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I can wait for the first crack of thunder tomorrow obs. I cant imagine this not having some cg. Probably east of 95 but when the upper low wraps the convection coming up the coast fun things should happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: I can wait for the first crack of thunder tomorrow obs. I cant imagine this not having some cg. Probably east of 95 but when the upper low wraps the convection coming up the coast fun things should happen. I'll try to have the video rolling when I get my thunder sleet. Its happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 23 minutes ago, high risk said: sure does, but man, it's because that sfc low is so far west. not sure if any other guidance has put the low right on the coastline. Icon and euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 18 minutes ago, cae said: I can do both. https://weather.us/model-charts/virginia/2018031918/maryland/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20180322-0700z.html This model did well with temps during a mixed precip event earlier this year, but I haven't seen it do well consistently enough to have much confidence in it. now that would be a mauling!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Take a look at the inbound precip field. It's just exploded the last couple of hours. About 18:00 local it was a pittance of what it is now. Lots of yellow and some reds too. Really starting to fire up. https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/virginia/weather-radar?play=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Along with his most recent snowstorm podcast (a good watch) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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