poolz1 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Close to 2" qpf across a large portion of the area by hr45....still snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I would like a smidge south of what I am seeing. Worried about that last minute pull north issue! I love what I see..I just get worried easily! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, Scraff said: Ummmmm. Did we just get NAM’d? Not quite the NAMing I was waiting for. Gettysburg got it this run they're only about 30 miles from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 12k NAM is 1-2'+ for western Maryand and the eastern panhandle of WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, Amped said: Not quite the NAMing I was waiting for. Gettysburg got it this run they're only about 30 miles from here. 3km is not finished yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I’ll be honest, if you’re in PA, I don’t give a **** how much you’re getting. Please find the appropriate sub to post in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 00z NAM is a mauling from the MA to southern NE. Classic look and impressive textbook 500 pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Always find NAM is too far north in longer range 24hr plus. It’s been slowly working that heaviest stuff back toward us. Hopefully euro is a straight shellac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 That comma head is almost unbelievable. It is just monstrous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3km looks so, so good. Precip is much more robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Doesn't the NAM have recon data too? Just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Forecast for DC proper - Final and only Call - Low confidence Overnight - 2 am to 6 am - Steady Rain developing, possibly mixing with or changing to sleet toward dawn. Mid to upper 30s. Tuesday - 6 am to 4 pm - Mix, becoming mostly sleet toward mid-morning, with some flakes mixing in, in the afternoon. Mid 30s. Perhaps some minor accumulations on unpaved surfaces. Tuesday/Wednesday - 4 pm to 4 am - intermittent light mixed precip. Mid 30s. Wednesday - 4 am to 7 pm - Snow. Low 30s. Total Accumulation - 1-3" below 100' (mainly unpaved surfaces). 2-4" above 100' (some sticking to side streets and sidewalks, especially above 300'). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Forecast for DC proper - Final and only Call - Low confidence Overnight - 2 am to 6 am - Steady Rain developing, possibly mixing with or changing to sleet toward dawn. Mid to upper 30s. Tuesday - 6 am to 4 pm - Mix, becoming mostly sleet toward mid-morning, with some flakes mixing in, in the afternoon. Mid 30s. Perhaps some minor accumulations on unpaved surfaces. Tuesday/Wednesday - 4 pm to 4 am - intermittent light mixed precip. Mid 30s. Wednesday - 4 am to 7 pm - Snow. Low 30s. Total Accumulation - 1-3" below 100' (mainly unpaved surfaces). 2-4" above 100' (some sticking to side streets and sidewalks, especially above 300'). Based on climo and just how we've been running winter storm wise lately this is easily the most reasonable and likely forecast in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3k NAM is just outstanding...watching that closed low just pause and blossom over KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: 3k NAM is just outstanding...watching that closed low just pause and blossom over KY. What a beaut. This is gonna be a heck of a storm either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I’m so confused with some people talking about how awesome this storm is and some saying low precip totals and next. Way too many imby posts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 looks like at minimum a sun up to sun down snow for the region wednesday. backside of the closed low hasn't even made it through by sunset, so the wraparound persists. we'll have to see how well we do there, but it's a nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, VAsnowlvr82 said: I’m so confused with some people talking about how awesome this storm is and some saying low precip totals and next. Way too many imby posts! Well the positive snow depth change at hour 40 is quite low on the 3k. Look at it if you don’t believe me. It’s only out to 40. It looks to me like PHL-NYC get hammered. The setup at h5 looks awesome but the results tell a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3K NAM looks like 2-3" for DC in the second wave verbatim once we changeover. WWA-level event with some slushy roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 3k about to throw down with the ull. Setup even better than 18z We've been waiting for "that look" for YEARS! Seriously years...and now we have it. Fully closed low crossing just under us. Captured sub 990 low just off the mid Atlantic coast. Ccb across our area. And now people are sh!ting on the look? I'm seriously confused what they are liking at. There have been times the last few runs where a read some posts before looking at the model and was expecting something to have gone wrong then was like wtf it's fine. I thought I was the worry wart but this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, VAsnowlvr82 said: I’m so confused with some people talking about how awesome this storm is and some saying low precip totals and next. Way too many imby posts! Hopefully the mods will clean some of those...it really does make it confusing (at least during model runs, anyway) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: We've been waiting for "that look" for YEARS! Seriously years...and now we have it. Fully closed low crossing just under us. Captured sub 990 low just off the mid Atlantic coast. Ccb across our area. And now people are sh!ting on the look? I'm seriously confused what they are liking at. There have been times the last few runs where a read some posts before looking at the model and was expecting something to have gone wrong then was like wtf it's fine. I thought I was the worry wart but this... They're looking at surface depictions more than anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, VAsnowlvr82 said: I’m so confused with some people talking about how awesome this storm is and some saying low precip totals and next. Way too many imby posts! Unless their backyards are far away it's just bad analysis based on looking at bad snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, VAsnowlvr82 said: I’m so confused with some people talking about how awesome this storm is and some saying low precip totals and next. Way too many imby posts! I don’t think it is IMBY. The evolution of the 500 low is appealing and most who are jazzed about the storm are looking at that and extrapolating. However, the NAM 3k itself is not very impressive for surface precip. My two pronged worry: 1) The 500 low practically looks like it is occluding in a way. Look at the convection vanish in the Carolinas as it loses its punch. 2) the front runner event may be messing with the traditional moisture advection. When we see a nice 850 jet with an easterly component we get excited, but this is not drawing from the same environment that it otherwise would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 People that only have the ability to understand precip panels should not be permitted to post. Please leave analysis to others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3k hits S PA and points NE the hardest. NYC metro gets 18+ on the 3K as we see 12+ in northern MD. crazy. And not verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 850s at +0.5 but 925 +4 and dp low 30s so watching for that colder air push for first part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I don’t think it is IMBY. The evolution of the 500 low is appealing and most who are jazzed about the storm are looking at that and extrapolating. However, the NAM 3k itself is not very impressive for surface precip. My two pronged worry: 1) The 500 low practically looks like it is occluding in a way. Look at the convection vanish in the Carolinas as it loses its punch. 2) the front runner event may be messing with the traditional moisture advection. When we see a nice 850 jet with an easterly component we get excited, but this is not drawing from the same environment that it otherwise would. 3k give central MD ~0.5" QPF from hours 29-49. Much of the heavier precip is focused on NJ and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I don’t think it is IMBY. The evolution of the 500 low is appealing and most who are jazzed about the storm are looking at that and extrapolating. However, the NAM 3k itself is not very impressive for surface precip. My two pronged worry: 1) The 500 low practically looks like it is occluding in a way. Look at the convection vanish in the Carolinas as it loses its punch. 2) the front runner event may be messing with the traditional moisture advection. When we see a nice 850 jet with an easterly component we get excited, but this is not drawing from the same environment that it otherwise would. I was thinking something similar. The less precip with the first low then the better for the 2nd. If the first dumps alot of rain or mix num2 might not do much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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