WeathermanB Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: Yeah it’s great, PSU should def be away from the ledge now Make better posts. This is so wrong. Whoops, i made a mistake. What i was trying to get at, but i forgot to add the wave 2 part. My apologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 So I guess we’re hanging our hats on the Euro...which has been subpar this year....alrighty then. I’m not trying to be the downer here...but I’m sorry, I need to see more from the GFS and NAM 3K ferrier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 weather.us shows lower end totals of 4-6" as the snow hole. Not bad https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018031812/virginia/snow-depth-in/20180322-0900z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just now, BaltimoreWxGuy said: So I guess we’re hanging our hats on the Euro...which has been subpar this year....alrighty then. I’m not trying to be the downer here...but I’m sorry, I need to see more from the GFS and NAM 3K ferrier You are always a downer. Just let people feel good about the best run of the year on a major model within 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: So I guess we’re hanging our hats on the Euro...which has been subpar this year....alrighty then. I’m not trying to be the downer here...but I’m sorry, I need to see more from the GFS and NAM 3K ferrier Euro and the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: There's already snow on the ground. Might be potatoes but VERBATIM the euro is almost a best case scenario. Just need wave 2 to boogie a little more and the precip falls into probably the best late march column you can ask for. I’m sure you are looking at things better than me and I like your enthusiasm. Getting the temp crash helps better than still having marginals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: What’s the QPF after that panel? Obviously after dark sub freezing we’d accumulate just fine. .4 ish for you/me. NE MD gets more. Snows all night into the morning. There's already a base of potatoes so once the sun sets and temps drop it will get real pretty. Even on the streets. The legit CCB from wave 2 just misses us. It's in NEMD and DE/NJ. We still snow though just not hot an heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: I’m not trying to be the downer here...but I’m sorry Yes you are and no you aren't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: There's already snow on the ground. Might be potatoes but VERBATIM the euro is almost a best case scenario. Just need wave 2 to boogie a little more and the precip falls into probably the best late march column you can ask for. This. With how Euro is trending with Wave 2, I wouldn’t be surprised if EPS takes another step forward IRT some additional upside potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 4 minutes ago, H2O said: Precip is fairly epic on euro tho. It’s got lots of juice Yes. It is rare to see the Euro that juiced up. It is actually in line with the NAM as far as total QPF goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: .4 ish for you/me. NE MD gets more. Snows all night into the morning. There's already a base of potatoes so once the sun sets and temps drop it will get real pretty. Even on the streets. The legit CCB from wave 2 just misses us. It's in NEMD and DE/NJ. We still snow though just not hot an heavy. What would need to happen to get the CCB from wave 2 down here into DC/Baltimore?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 7 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Bristow, at least 1.2 qpf according to the latest EURO. Maybe we score this time. EURO not prone to drastic changes , I think, so maybe we eventually surpass 1.5 qpf. Yo..looks good to me. Still skeptical only because I am that way and will be nervous until it starts actually snowing since there isn’t cold in place. Deal still stands WSW and drinks on me at the towncenter...how many drinks? We can worry about rates later! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yes you are and no you aren't At least we have DTs first guess map on our side! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Euro keeps our storm lingering around SE Can longer this run....setting up a more interesting run for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 18, 2018 Author Share Posted March 18, 2018 6 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: So I guess we’re hanging our hats on the Euro...which has been subpar this year....alrighty then. I’m not trying to be the downer here...but I’m sorry, I need to see more from the GFS and NAM 3K ferrier No, you are. But unlike others, I don't think you can help it. It's inherently part of you...in your DNA. The ****ing ferrier. GTFO out of here with that noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Yes. It is rare to see the Euro that juiced up. It is actually in line with the NAM as far as total QPF goes. Nice to see the euro this cold as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: .4 ish for you/me. NE MD gets more. Snows all night into the morning. There's already a base of potatoes so once the sun sets and temps drop it will get real pretty. Even on the streets. The legit CCB from wave 2 just misses us. It's in NEMD and DE/NJ. We still snow though just not hot an heavy. But did that trend better from 00z though? (Get closer to being big?) And what was that 1.4 qpf for Central MD? (Sorry, I'm trying to wade through the other IMBY posts, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: .4 ish for you/me. NE MD gets more. Snows all night into the morning. There's already a base of potatoes so once the sun sets and temps drop it will get real pretty. Even on the streets. The legit CCB from wave 2 just misses us. It's in NEMD and DE/NJ. We still snow though just not hot an heavy. I like that we’re within normal modeling error of the good CCB. As you said, potential upside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 7 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: So I guess we’re hanging our hats on the Euro...which has been subpar this year....alrighty then. I’m not trying to be the downer here...but I’m sorry, I need to see more from the GFS and NAM 3K ferrier That’s literally all you do, is piss on good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Is GFS an outlier or is that solution still in the cards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Im fine with the Euro. Our upside is 4" realistically. Not to overdo 1958 or even 1993, but there could be a big difference between Ft Reno and the mall. I'm still pretty wed to climo down here regardless of model output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 It's a 30+ hour storm on the Euro. Surface temps are below freezing for the duration here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just now, WVclimo said: It's a 30+ hour storm on the Euro. Surface temps are below freezing for the duration here. This is somewhat of a convoluted setup, but the Euro loves long storms. I expect some consolidation on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 For the DC area: every single model is now showing accumulating snow after 0Z Wednesday. The CMC is by far the most, with the GFS/NAM being the least (furthest south) and the Euro/UK in between. Still too far to nail down that phase of the storm, but the unanimity is inspiring confidence that this will be a decent event because that phase of the storm was always going to be the colder part. Even if nothing's sticking during the day Tuesday, it would be fine knowing the "main event" is coming towards sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: No, you are. But unlike others, I don't think you can help it. It's inherently part of you...in your DNA. The ****ing ferrier. GTFO out of here with that noise. We all know when the ferrier is drastically different from the 10:1 it’s a red flag... 8 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: That’s literally all you do, is piss on good news. Don’t eat the yellow snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Euro puts down 20-25"+ across NMD between now and next sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 One thing I am very hopeful for, and I can only speak for my location, but all year both the GFS AND the Euro have busted on my low temps - the cold days were always colder than modeled here. So I suppose I have a local warm bias from the models. Don’t know if that translates anywhere else though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Has the same thermal issues as the NAM with wave 1 (no surprise there with that LLJ/WCB w/o a closed low aloft). A lot of that QPF, especially around DC, is rain, sleet or even freezing rain/and freezing drizzle. However wave 2 structurally looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/03/18/two-waves-of-wintry-weather-possible-in-d-c-area-this-week-with-some-snow-accumulation-possible/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, csnavywx said: Has the same thermal issues as the NAM with wave 1 (no surprise there with that LLJ/WCB w/o a closed low aloft). A lot of that QPF, especially around DC, is rain, sleet or even freezing rain/and freezing drizzle. However wave 2 structurally looks better. Absolutely. Everyone loves these 10:1 snow maps! Wave 2 will be key in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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