Eskimo Joe Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 9 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: That's for 8pm time frame and will probably bust too cold, but temps will drop steadily over the next 2-3 hours. I wouldn't sweat the current temps too much. We'll drop steadily by the morning and will probably run in the low-mid 30's area wide by 9am tomorrow. Urban corridors may be warmer into the upper 30's before precip picks up and they wet bulb. The airmass is pretty dry and there will be a few hours of clear skies so temps should edge off rather quick. Yesterday was a good example of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 18z HRDPS has that heavy snow banding look to it as the 2nd low gets cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Yea, HDERPS is showing more what u would envision as the ull and tucked slp moved through. NoVA gets freekin raked on the run. I think the nams have it wrong with prolonged spotty precip. Should be more dynamic than what they showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, nj2va said: 18z HRDPS has that heavy snow banding feature rolling through the area once the 2nd low gets cranking. If that is right I’ll never call it the DERP model again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 HERPDERPs absolutely rakes northern MD. And it continues after the run ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 34 minutes ago, Chris78 said: That's not bad at all. I would of thought the ground would of been warmer. Ground along the Bay is warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, MiddleRvrwx said: Ground along the Bay is warmer. Get enough sleet and ground will be fine even by the bay. Most nights have been in 20s. We can’t change the calendar but this is the best post March 20th scenario we may see ever..and I mean like a 50 year storm set up. It takes miracle and a half to get an h5 like the models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 32 minutes ago, nj2va said: 18z HRDPS has that heavy snow banding look to it as the 2nd low gets cranking. It looks right because of the light snow only over Baltimore city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 8 minutes ago, MiddleRvrwx said: Ground along the Bay is warmer. Just measured the ground temp near Annapolis on the bay with an IR thermometer. Not the best way to measure, but a good ballpark. Grass area was 39.2F (multiple sample locations). Bay water surface varied between 37 to 38 depending on where I pointed it. Air temperature on my weather station is running 46.4F at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: It looks right because of the light snow only over Baltimore city. Then it gets heavier on the next panel.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Nah, it's cold. This is a snowstorm. There is often a big difference in few hundred feet elevation between here-Fallston and Bel Air, (last storm was 2.5 here, 0.5 bel air) and the NWS has about the same forecast probabilities for both - probably all the way down I-95, but besides that I look forward to 8" Ratios aren't going to be real high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 18z HRDRPS has 2" QPF area just southwest of DC with more to come with 1.75" surrounding it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, Fozz said: Then it gets heavier on the next panel.... Thank god. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Fauquier County region closes in on a foot and still snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Stop it with ground temp talk. We have had significant snowstorms the day after it was 70 before. We have had accumulating snow the last week of march several times. Colorado has the same radiation as us. Denver is at our latitude and they get big snows in early fall when it's been 75 the whole week before and soil temps are above 50*. This is the dumbest thing ever. Knock it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Thank god. I can understand being frustrated with the NAM, but the HRDPS is a very good hit for our area, better for the far northern crowd (especially since it has them scoring tomorrow as well), but still a solid event into Baltimore city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Stop it with ground temp talk. We have had significant snowstorms the day after it was 70 before. We have had accumulating snow the last week of march several times. Colorado has the same radiation as us. Denver is at our latitude and they get big snows in early fall when it's been 75 the whole week before and soil temps are above 50*. This is the dumbest thing ever. Knock it off. I think ground temps only matter if rates are unimpressive, otherwise it doesn't matter if the previous day felt like summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Fozz said: I can understand being frustrated with the NAM, but the HRDPS is a very good hit for our area, better for the far northern crowd (especially since it has them scoring tomorrow as well), but still a solid event into Baltimore city. I just have a hate/hate relationship with the HRRR and HRDRPS and the like as they always seem to manage to avoid showing any banding over Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Thank god. Yeah, the heavy bands are rotating through NoVA into MD...I just picked one panel to show the banding features setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I just have a hate/hate relationship with the HRRR and HRDRPS and the like as they always seem to manage to avoid showing any banding over Baltimore. You’ll get banding. You are in a prime spot. Not sure why you worry so much. When all is said and done you will over achieve with this storm. Mark my words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: You’ll get banding. You are in a prime spot. Not sure why you worry so much. When all is said and done you will over achieve with this storm. Mark my words. At last, a post aimed Baltimore City specifically Man I hope you're right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Latest HRRR is really nice with the initial thump out this way. We only lose an hour to sleet then boom the sky open up. Dumps .5 qpf as snow in 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 8 minutes ago, Fozz said: I think ground temps only matter if rates are unimpressive, otherwise it doesn't matter if the previous day felt like summer. i think it matters in the sense of it providing clues as to how far north the storm can go or other variables, but we can certainly drop fast after a front moves through, etc. i didn't see any red flags today. it was sunny and still had a cool breeze. overall mild, but dry and certainly wasn't warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Honestly I’d love to see NoVA get raked, especially areas south and west of DC, into Trixieland in the WV panhandle that are in the worst of the snow hole this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I started an Obs thread: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Latest HRRR is really nice with the initial thump out this way. We only lose an hour to sleet then boom the sky open up. Dumps .5 qpf as snow in 3 hours. No one deserves it as much as you. You suffered this year. This is your event. Wave 1 and 2. Crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Latest HRRR is really nice with the initial thump out this way. We only lose an hour to sleet then boom the sky open up. Dumps .5 qpf as snow in 3 hours. I think a 12/8/2013 type of surprise is possible tomorrow for those who get lucky enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: At last, a post aimed Baltimore City specifically Man I hope you're right! You’re welcome. You are not the only worrier inside the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, Fozz said: Honestly I’d love to see NoVA get raked, especially areas south and west of DC, into Trixieland in the WV panhandle that are in the worst of the snow hole this year. 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: No one deserves it as much as you. You suffered this year. This is your event. Wave 1 and 2. Crushed. Tried to like these posts. But in my ridiculous excitement today I am out of likes If the initial thump ends up verifying the models will have really handled it well. They have had my area targeted for a couple of days now. I just hope they are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Tried to like these posts. But in my ridiculous excitement today I am out of likes If the initial thump ends up verifying the models will have really handled it well. They have had my area targeted for a couple of days now. I just hope they are right. Me thinks you're gonna double your seasonal total, maybe 3 or 4 inches more than that this is why you're in Winchester. These late March storms are incredible out there. Enjoy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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