clskinsfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 GFS has a very heavy front end thump. Has all of NOVA snow by 18Z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 GFS isn't as heavy on the sleet as the NAMs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Wow, LWX going 4-6" in the cities and east is very bold imho. Especially in DC and the se side of the beltway. Cranky brought up a good point...places are bumping up the totals based on one model run? Perhaps premature? (then again...it's not really that unreasonable, potential-wise...guess I'll feel better if other models follow the Euro better) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: GFS has a very heavy front end thump. Has all of NOVA snow by 18Z tomorrow. I see it tucks the surface low on Wednesday much better than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I like the GFS depiction for the 2nd wave, a tad south with the low position compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 GFS looks very much like the euro. Very good sounding @ 18z wed. Excellent sounding actually. The bands will remain a moving target but I think the run is great overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, DCTeacherman said: I like the GFS depiction for the 2nd wave, a tad south with the low position compared to 12z. Yea so far I like its position a bit better than the nam/rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Damn dudes, this is for 18z Tues. MUCH better than the nams. Hmm..... Topper called it? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 GFS Kuchera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I don't know about anyone else but I'm really surprised at how good the column is in general on the GFS. Did not see that coming at all. The plot thickens...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 8am wed in DC is legit accumulating dendrites.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 18z GFS certainly an improvement. Cooler through the column with mostly a rain to snow transition and quicker. Even in the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: 8am wed in DC is legit accumulating dendrites.... Look how large the saturation layer extends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I don't know about anyone else but I'm really surprised at how good the column is in general on the GFS. Did not see that coming at all. The plot thickens...lol I was about to mention this more Euroish. I was surprised too, but I think sleet will remain in the forecast for tomorrow. I'll take the thermals from the high res guidance before a global at this point. They did pretty well in that aspect during last years debacle. Globals I think might handle the upper level setup the best. This happened the previous storm in the NE. Short range guidance as a bit jumpy on that one as well until the night of. They still look okay, but as MN mentioned earlier, it was a bit sloppy. Euro and GFS are cleaner, thus a better result. The NAM's are one way we can "fail" though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: 18z GFS certainly an improvement. Cooler through the column with mostly a rain to snow transition and quicker. Even in the cities. That's throwing me for a loop honestly. I don't think it will go down like that with the front slug but it gives me hope. GFS is nice overnight into Wed though. If we can wake up to mod snow wed morning it should continue to pile up during the day as long as there are no prolonged lulls. GFS has been warmer than most guidance for days leading into this event and now it looks better than the mesos. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Damn dudes, this is for 18z Tues. MUCH better than the nams. Hmm..... Topper called it? lol The GFS has a known bias for underdoing the transition zone of sleet or freezing rain in between the rain and snow. During our sleet bomb last March, the GFS missed the boat completely on ptype for the DC-PHL-NYC corridor, and it has shown this tendency in many other storms. It struggles badly with inversions. Not saying that it can't be right this time, but I'd go with all of the hi-res models showing the sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 For I-95 and south/east looks like rain to sleet to snow, would expect results like 3.5" snow as part of 1.20" liquid at DCA. Maybe 4.0" (1.25" LE) for BWI. 1.5" and 1.60" LE for SBY. For I-95 and within a few miles north/west, same but would expect 5.5" snow as part of 1.30" liquid at IAD. Further north and west probably sleet to snow and somewhere like FDK about 8.5" snow and 1.40" liquid. Max amounts of 10-15" snow in ne WV and parts of NOVA. This rather messy outlook has me wondering, are your deciduous trees partly in leaf yet? There will be sagging branches on evergreens for sure and if some leaf action has begun this kind of slop can bring down large branches. I know Feb was very warm in your region so I would have to think the trees are showing some signs of foliation. Anyway good luck and I hope to be wrong on the low side of snow with those estimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: For I-95 and south/east looks like rain to sleet to snow, would expect results like 3.5" snow as part of 1.20" liquid at DCA. Maybe 4.0" (1.25" LE) for BWI. 1.5" and 1.60" LE for SBY. For I-95 and within a few miles north/west, same but would expect 5.5" snow as part of 1.30" liquid at IAD. Further north and west probably sleet to snow and somewhere like FDK about 8.5" snow and 1.40" liquid. Max amounts of 10-15" snow in ne WV and parts of NOVA. This rather messy outlook has me wondering, are your deciduous trees partly in leaf yet? There will be sagging branches on evergreens for sure and if some leaf action has begun this kind of slop can bring down large branches. I know Feb was very warm in your region so I would have to think the trees are showing some signs of foliation. Anyway good luck and I hope to be wrong on the low side of snow with those estimates. Roger, I'm inside the beltway in DC and we are definitely way behind last year on leaf emergence. Red buds on maples and cherry trees, pretty much everything else dormant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: For I-95 and south/east looks like rain to sleet to snow, would expect results like 3.5" snow as part of 1.20" liquid at DCA. Maybe 4.0" (1.25" LE) for BWI. 1.5" and 1.60" LE for SBY. For I-95 and within a few miles north/west, same but would expect 5.5" snow as part of 1.30" liquid at IAD. Further north and west probably sleet to snow and somewhere like FDK about 8.5" snow and 1.40" liquid. Max amounts of 10-15" snow in ne WV and parts of NOVA. This rather messy outlook has me wondering, are your deciduous trees partly in leaf yet? There will be sagging branches on evergreens for sure and if some leaf action has begun this kind of slop can bring down large branches. I know Feb was very warm in your region so I would have to think the trees are showing some signs of foliation. Anyway good luck and I hope to be wrong on the low side of snow with those estimates. There is some beginning leafout in Dale City. Uh oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Damn dudes, this is for 18z Tues. MUCH better than the nams. Hmm..... Topper called it? lol You're on the verge of losing saturation in the critical layer. This sounding is very quickly on its way to drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 12z-18z should be our money period according to GFS. Will be cool if we can really get some mod/heavy snow accumulating snow during the day on the vernal equinox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 12 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: For I-95 and south/east looks like rain to sleet to snow, would expect results like 3.5" snow as part of 1.20" liquid at DCA. Maybe 4.0" (1.25" LE) for BWI. 1.5" and 1.60" LE for SBY. For I-95 and within a few miles north/west, same but would expect 5.5" snow as part of 1.30" liquid at IAD. Further north and west probably sleet to snow and somewhere like FDK about 8.5" snow and 1.40" liquid. Max amounts of 10-15" snow in ne WV and parts of NOVA. This rather messy outlook has me wondering, are your deciduous trees partly in leaf yet? There will be sagging branches on evergreens for sure and if some leaf action has begun this kind of slop can bring down large branches. I know Feb was very warm in your region so I would have to think the trees are showing some signs of foliation. Anyway good luck and I hope to be wrong on the low side of snow with those estimates. No leaves in Western PWC. Even the pears have not flowered. Red on the maples. Only signs of life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, csnavywx said: You're on the verge of losing saturation in the critical layer. This sounding is very quickly on its way to drizzle. No doubt. I'm surprised the mids are below freezing. That's all I was pointing out. I don't think I'm getting snow until late tomorrow at the earliest. I'm rooting for a sandstorm of epic proportions before that. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 do we know when its suppose to get cold. 18z gfs has us at 42 in about an hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I know this is a day old so the temp should be a little warmer... How long would it take to get them to freezing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Interstate said: I know this is a day old so the temp should be a little warmer... How long would it take to get them to freezing? That's not bad at all. I would of thought the ground would of been warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Its been a very cold march. I dont think we will have a problem with soil temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: do we know when its suppose to get cold. 18z gfs has us at 42 in about an hour? That's for 8pm time frame and will probably bust too cold, but temps will drop steadily over the next 2-3 hours. I wouldn't sweat the current temps too much. We'll drop steadily by the morning and will probably run in the low-mid 30's area wide by 9am tomorrow. Urban corridors may be warmer into the upper 30's before precip picks up and they wet bulb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Sleet will cool it pretty fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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