Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, Amped said: NAM isn't that bad. Going to need to be patient though, which I am not. A lot of mix, then a lot of dryslot snizzle, then finally, some decent snow. The most unusual part of this one by far is daytime temperatures. Just weird. It's not a massive arctic hp like we had in 14 and 15 but the storm track allows cold to efficiently advect for hours and hours before the good stuff happens. Could be one heck of a sleet storm before the ull goes on attack. Which will give some folks reason to worry because big snow events don't fail on the waa piece and this one hasn't (and never has for the cities) looked good with that piece. The stall and crawl should do some damage for most everyone though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Looks to be an early dismissal kind of day tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanTheMan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, Jebman said: Driving on sleet is like driving on ball bearings mixed with oil. Back in January when I was on my way to chase in Ohio I ran into some heavy sleet around Pittsburgh and I thought I was going to die, several cars went off the road in front of me, drove about 70 miles where I wouldn't dare get above 40 mph or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 8 minutes ago, HarrisonburgWX said: Hey guys, first-time poster long time lurker here. Could anyone, that has the time, please explain why on both the 12k and 3k 18z NAM the Shenandoah Valley seems to be under a large dry slot that never seems to fill in? Would this be something that this area needs to worry about or is this just the NAM being the NAM? Yes, out here in the valley we must always worry about dryslots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Dial back on all the stories and posts that are NOT on topic, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/?model=nam3km&runtime=2018031918&fh=50&lat=39.01&lon=-77.06&stationID=&tc=&mode=regular Giddy up. NAM has some banding action as we knew it would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 NBC upped their forecast to 3-6” for most of us. 4-8”+ for the favored locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 That sim IR loop on TT is a sight to behold. What a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Cobalt said: I was in 1st grade. Don't remember it whatsoever Fair enough. I was going to say 16' was awesome but 09-10 was insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 https://twitter.com/AMSweather/status/975809873966456832 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 March 1993 was epic 15 foot tidal surges in FL, over 50" snow in highest parts of Smokies. 1pm in the afternoon here looked like 30 minutes before dark, snow and stinging sleet driven by 30 mph winds gusting to over 40. Probably the most inhospitable winter storm I have ever tried walking around in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Good Call We had a wx call early this afternoon and there was no mention of any watch extension before the overnight runs. 2 hours later everyone bites on the Euro it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, wdavis5784 said: Fair enough. I was going to say 16' was awesome but 09-10 was insane. Yeah it was. That was the only year were we got 12'' of snow or more from 2 events in the same month, i think. 4 minutes ago, wdavis5784 said: I was in 1st grade. Don't remember it whatsoeve Same. I also vividly remember shoveling snow with my dad while he was wearing a hawaii t-shirt. Silly guy. Snow was knee deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/?model=nam3km&runtime=2018031918&fh=50&lat=39.01&lon=-77.06&stationID=&tc=&mode=regular Giddy up. NAM has some banding action as we knew it would. Heavy DGZ action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 25 minutes ago, HarrisonburgWX said: Hey guys, first-time poster long time lurker here. Could anyone, that has the time, please explain why on both the 12k and 3k 18z NAM the Shenandoah Valley seems to be under a large dry slot that never seems to fill in? Would this be something that this area needs to worry about or is this just the NAM being the NAM? I'll take a shot at this... someone please correct me if I'm wrong. I think the dry slot kicks in because you get caught between lows during the transfer. It's the same type of dynamics that can cause us problems during Miller B's. Later when the upper level precip comes through, the mountains eat it before it gets to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 RGEM looks great for banded structure as it all wraps up. I'll just leave this here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I’ll continue to be a bit of a Deb. I find the 500 evolution on the 3km NAM to still be a bit messy and it leaves us with weak precip rates on the backside after we (at least closer to 95) are cleanly snow. A few hundredths of precip per hour during peak daylight during March with temps 30-32 isn’t going to amount to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Not seeing sleet for metro after 18-19Z or so, and it quickly exits the northeast areas a couple hours later. Deep scouring/subsidence is evident aloft and virtually all of the lift is in water-vapor clouds (no saturated layers <-8 to -10C. That screams drizzle. Freezing drizzle if you're far enough NW. Re-saturation doesn't occur until 08-10Z Wed (4-6 am), so there's a prolonged period of overnight freezing drizzle potential. That could turn pretty nasty in some places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: I’ll continue to be a bit of a Deb. I find the 500 evolution on the 3km NAM to still be a bit messy and it leaves us with weak precip rates on the backside after we (at least closer to 95) are cleanly snow. A few hundredths of precip per hour during peak daylight during March with temps 30-32 isn’t going to amount to much. I was wondering about that too. Precip looks very light and spotty during the day, with the much heavier stuff from the messy wave 1 which isn't even snow for the most part. But then I assumed that maybe the H5 progression is good enough and we shouldn't be too concerned about what it shows on the surface more than 36 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I’ll continue to be a bit of a Deb. I find the 500 evolution on the 3km NAM to still be a bit messy and it leaves us with weak precip rates on the backside after we (at least closer to 95) are cleanly snow. A few hundredths of precip per hour during peak daylight during March with temps 30-32 isn’t going to amount to much. I agree. The surface/precip panels of the nam3 was underwhelming. Could be right but I'll hug the RGEM's version Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Euro > any NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I agree. The surface/precip panels of the nam3 was underwhelming. Could be right but I'll hug the RGEM's version We shouldn't be too concerned of the 3km NAM near hr 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I’ll continue to be a bit of a Deb. I find the 500 evolution on the 3km NAM to still be a bit messy and it leaves us with weak precip rates on the backside after we (at least closer to 95) are cleanly snow. A few hundredths of precip per hour during peak daylight during March with temps 30-32 isn’t going to amount to much. The 18z Nam is one way we can fail I guess. Would you agree the low tucking in along the coast now is key as it stacks up. If it doesn't do that we are left with light rates in March on the the second day of Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I’ll continue to be a bit of a Deb. I find the 500 evolution on the 3km NAM to still be a bit messy and it leaves us with weak precip rates on the backside after we (at least closer to 95) are cleanly snow. A few hundredths of precip per hour during peak daylight during March with temps 30-32 isn’t going to amount to much. Not to act like I know much, but when I read this I said out loud “my thoughts exactly”. It’s an exciting evolution and a lot of qpf region wide, however it’s an event (IMO) ripe with disappointment. The 18z nam(s) continue to cut back on accumulations (snow depth change, ferrier) but qpf is still there. That means (to me at least) that accumulation is going to REALLY STRUGGLE east of Leesburg Hopefully dynamics can really work their magic. This is a fairly great look at h5 so I’m hoping that the upper levels can help crash the mids and subsequent lowers when deepening takes off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Updated LWX snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, PivotPoint said: Not to act like I know much, but when I read this I said out loud “my thoughts exactly”. It’s an exciting evolution and a lot of qpf region wide, however it’s an event (IMO) ripe with disappointment. The 18z nam(s) continue to cut back on accumulations (snow depth change, ferrier) but qpf is still there. That means (to me at least) that accumulation is going to REALLY STRUGGLE east of Leesburg Hopefully dynamics can really work their magic. This is a fairly great look at h5 so I’m hoping that the upper levels can help crash the mids and subsequent lowers when deepening takes off. We need CCB rakeage....euro gets its done for most of the sub but the nam twins won’t cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Wow, LWX going 4-6" in the cities and east is very bold imho. Especially in DC and the se side of the beltway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The setup could probably still use a tweak south and west and better phasing. It still looks good for several hours of good rates but after looking at the nam and rgem a bit closer I could see where there could be a little room for improvement. It is late March though so expectations probably need to be kept in check a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Wow, LWX going 4-6" in the cities and east is very bold imho. Especially in DC and the se side of the beltway. They must be buying the Euro's solution then, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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