Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 12k nam with the same epic look in the upper levels. 3k following along as well. Everything is looking like the euro with the progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Looks like about 36 hours until she really gets her act together. Still alot of time to change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Excellent NAM deform band at 45 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NattyBo Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 How bad is the afternoon commute going to be if the sleet verifies?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Fozz said: Yeah I've been waiting for years to see something like this. Last year was so so close, but a last minute northern shift made it a sleety mess instead. Hopefully this one delivers. Jan 26th 2011 is hands down the best paste bomb in this area in my lifetime. I don't think that storm can be topped for it's sheer impact with a single digit snowfall. I hope we get some of the joys a paste bomb brings with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, NattyBo said: How bad is the afternoon commute going to be if the sleet verifies?? Looks like last year. I remember last year it took me an hour to get my car out, because they had brought a snow plow down my parking lot and all of the sleet basically hardened into ice piles closing cars in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Extrapolate this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 If anyone has anything bad to say about the H5 progression on either NAM, then you'd might consider moving to AZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Extrapolate this Crush job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Extrapolate this Oh man....Kinda speechless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Looks like last year. I remember last year it took me an hour to get my car out, because they had brought a snow plow down my parking lot and all of the sleet basically hardened into ice piles closing cars in. Nice event of sleet accum even though snowfall was light officially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Extrapolate this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, MillvilleWx said: If anyone has anything bad to say about the H5 progression on either NAM, then you'd might consider moving to AZ I wish everyone would spend time learning h5 and h7. Remember the nam last night with it's surface depiction? lol. To be good at this hobby it goes far beyond watching a surface weather movie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Jan 26th 2011 is hands down the best paste bomb in this area in my lifetime. I don't think that storm can be topped for it's sheer impact with a single digit snowfall. I hope we get some of the joys a paste bomb brings with this storm Don’t tell that to anyone who sat in traffic for 10 hours trying to get home. I remember they closed Fairfax Co schools all day (and people complained). I kept telling everyone I know to get home before 4 pm. Then it started and the city came to a halt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: I wish everyone would spend time learning h5 and h7. Remember the nam last night with it's surface depiction? lol. To be good at this hobby it goes far beyond watching a surface weather movie. Amen. I always look at the upper levels first, then look at the surface. You'll know when something wonky happens at the surface if you understand the upper levels. 3k is shaping up to be a doozy for MA and NE US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Extrapolate this This looks amazing it just needs to stack up on the coast of OC an KABOOM fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Look at the cutoff north of KUNV, epic NAM run. Goes from 20" to nothing in about 30 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Extrapolate this ehh... Not sure what that means.. I'm confused, either it's because of the dry slot, or because of that insane cloud top signature off the OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I wish everyone would spend time learning h5 and h7. Remember the nam last night with it's surface depiction? lol. To be good at this hobby it goes far beyond watching a surface weather movie. There’s a triple closed H7 contour on the 12k NAM (via iwm). Textbook mid-Atlantic snowstorm depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 48 consecutive hours below 32 in frederick would be a record this late in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Does that count as a Neutral trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: ehh... Not sure what that means.. I'm confused, either it's because of the dry slot, or because of that insane cloud top signature off the OBX. Big hit coming! Moisture is exploding as the system goes negative tilt! INCOMING moisture conveyer belt! BOOM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, nj2va said: There’s a triple closed H7 contour on the 12k NAM (via iwm). Textbook mid-Atlantic snowstorm depiction. IMHO- it's still best to stick with the euro/gfs combo for wave 2 but I really liked what both nams did in the upper levels. Northern tier won't like the thermals so there's perspective. I'm glad my heavy rain piece is turning into heavy sleet. This is a very dynamic storm. I really don't think we'll understand how the ull works out until this time tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The nam has the standard elevation based lull until the upper level energy gets cranking. We’re not gonna escape that precip building in southern va. If the coastal stalls then I expect our area to do really well with all that Atlantic moisture thrown back to the mountains. It looked good to me, just gotta be patient with the development/progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: IMHO- it's still best to stick with the euro/gfs combo for wave 2 but I really liked what both nams did in the upper levels. Northern tier won't like the thermals so there's perspective. I'm glad my heavy rain piece is turning into heavy sleet. This is a very dynamic storm. I really don't think we'll understand how the ull works out until this time tomorrow. NAM isn't that bad. Going to need to be patient though, which I am not. A lot of mix, then a lot of dryslot snizzle, then finally, some decent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarrisonburgWX Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Hey guys, first-time poster long time lurker here. Could anyone, that has the time, please explain why on both the 12k and 3k 18z NAM the Shenandoah Valley seems to be under a large dry slot that never seems to fill in? Would this be something that this area needs to worry about or is this just the NAM being the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 40 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: NAm is one hell of a sleet storm. Toss the snowmaps immediately. Surface near or below freezing and pounding sleet. That part of the storm in itself may be impressive. Driving on sleet is like driving on ball bearings mixed with oil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Jebman said: Driving on sleet is like driving on ball bearings mixed with oil. Epic jebwalk weather though...watch that surface cool off..wear helmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 18z NAM is a sleet fest for quite some time Tuesday into Tuesday night even in the N and W suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: IMHO- it's still best to stick with the euro/gfs combo for wave 2 but I really liked what both nams did in the upper levels. Northern tier won't like the thermals so there's perspective. I'm glad my heavy rain piece is turning into heavy sleet. This is a very dynamic storm. I really don't think we'll understand how the ull works out until this time tomorrow. Yup, this has been really fascinating to track. I was betting on all rain in my backyard tomorrow until nightfall but I think things are trending for even DC/Arl/Alexandria to see frozen precip tomorrow during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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