WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Surprised to see the euro coming in so wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Not fringed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 That's a 981 at the benchmark, and 48 hours away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The 12z Euro run with p-type from weather.us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: Not fringed Feel better now? Lol Would love to have the level-headed PSU back...the nailbiter one was strange, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: Not fringed Dude, this is the real deal in the upper levels. Even with the low tucked, the column is money. Especially at hr54. Snow growth should be optimal between 12-18z on Wed. With cold surface too....oh man.... Hr48 is a textbook vort panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said: Surprised to see the euro coming in so wet I'm not. If the current consensus of a sub 990 low stalling just off the Delmarva with a closed h5 low passing just under us is correct.... in March with the juice available this time of year!!!! qpf can be pretty epic. That's why I wasn't entertaining the "precip sucks" discussion earlier with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 You guys gotta check out the sim IR on weatherus. It is pretty incredible. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018031912/usa/sat-ir-bright-temperature-1079mu/20180320-0300z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I'm not. If the current consensus of a sub 990 low stalling just off the Delmarva with a closed h5 low passing just under us is correct.... in March with the juice available this time of year!!!! qpf can be pretty epic. That's why I wasn't entertaining the "precip sucks" discussion earlier with the NAM. I see, its march. Normally i remember the euro as lacking precip most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm not. If the current consensus of a sub 990 low stalling just off the Delmarva with a closed h5 low passing just under us is correct.... in March with the juice available this time of year!!!! qpf can be pretty epic. That's why I wasn't entertaining the "precip sucks" discussion earlier with the NAM. The qpf distribution is going to evolve but there's no way we escape an acceptable event at this point IMHO. In between the ull and slp is going to have crap piles of dynamics to work with. There's not doubt going to be thundersnow and/or thundersleet reported. No doubt in my mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: What a money run at h5. I'm looking forward to my sleet too. I knew the euro would up the ante with wave 2. I have to retire after this year. I used up all my good guesses for the rest of my life in 3 days. You are on an epic tear. You better buy a lottery ticket stat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 17 minutes ago, yoda said: 2" QPF and higher just SE of i95 corridor... S MD 2.5" QPF in St. Mary and Calvert counties Poor Wes isn't around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 All the other models-- and I did check all of them-- have the surface 32 line east of I-95 at 12Z Wednesday. The Euro has it draped just to the west of I-95. Just something to see if it changes in the next two runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just 2 minutes ago, Fozz said: Some of us who are cold enough could get nice ratios with this stuff. I can see that classic comma head look. Seriously just got goosebumps. Wow!! I mean just Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgriffin56 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Euro brings everyone to the party...hopefully it holds on for us all to have some sort of shovel-able snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I have been silent for a while. This is an amazing run of the euro. It’s textbook for our area. Deepening of the low and tucked in near OC will bring deformation right across our region. If a storm overwhelms the challenges this time of the year it’s certainly one like this! Classic. Game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 that weather.us site shows widespread 4"+ from north of richmond throughout much of the region. general qpf of 1-2" and more towards the shore. significant increase from 0z especially across the northern tier where upwards of 8"+ is showing now. i don't know how it calculates the snow totals so that may be high end, but needless to say, a nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, 87storms said: that weather.us site shows widespread 4"+ from north of richmond throughout much of the region. general qpf of 1-2" and more towards the shore. significant increase from 0z especially across the northern tier where upwards of 8"+ is showing now. i don't know how it calculates the snow totals so that may be high end, but needless to say, a nice run. I have a feeling they use 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Regardless, a marked increase from 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, 87storms said: that weather.us site shows widespread 4"+ from north of richmond throughout much of the region. general qpf of 1-2" and more towards the shore. significant increase from 0z especially across the northern tier where upwards of 8"+ is showing now. i don't know how it calculates the snow totals so that may be high end, but needless to say, a nice run. Are you looking at the snow depth maps? I've found that the Euro snow depth maps on weather.us tend to be overdone, especially in events with marginal temps. You're probably better off using Kuchera ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I have a feeling they use 10:1. yea i took the totals with a grain of salt. the general qpf amounts are certainly more expansive than earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, cae said: Are you looking at the snow depth maps? I've found that the Euro snow depth maps on weather.us tend to be overdone, especially in events with marginal temps. You're probably better off using Kuchera ratios. kuchera ratios for the euro aren't available on weather.us i don't think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, 87storms said: yea i took the totals with a grain of salt. the general qpf amounts are certainly more expansive than earlier runs. The Kuchera ratio map was posted on page 30 by supernovasky and nj2va towards the bottom of the page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, yoda said: The Kuchera ratio map was posted last page Kuchera shows higher totals! Very impressive eta: bottom of pg 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: The Kuchera ratio map was posted last page Actually has the same snowfall for DC as the snow depth map. Thanks though, I'd missed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 29 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Feel better now? Lol Would love to have the level-headed PSU back...the nailbiter one was strange, lol There was some other stuff going on personally that had me a real mess the last week. Stuff way more important to me then snow but I'm sure it bled over. That's why I cut way back on posts the last day of two. I realized I was full tilt and a mess. Sorry about that. But it's ok now...both the personal thing and the weather! Btw the progression here is very similar to 96. Not exact it all comes across further north initially. But where the h5 and slp ends up is close. Of course ground truth late march isn't going to look like January even if it's a repeat which I'm not saying just noticing the similarities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: There was some other stuff going on personally that had me a real mess the last week. Stuff way more important to me then snow but I'm sure it bled over. That's why I cut way back on posts the last day of two. I realized I was full tilt and a mess. Sorry about that. But it's ok now...both the personal thing and the weather! Btw the progression here is very similar to 96. Not exact it all comes across further north initially. But where the h5 and slp ends up is close. Of course ground truth late march isn't going to look like January even if it's a repeat which I'm not saying just noticing the similarities. As in January 1996? I would take ⅓ of that. That was a fun storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The best part of the Euro going boom...it’s NOT 10 days away!! Man I’m stoked. The OBS thread gonna be wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Scraff said: The best part of the Euro going boom...it’s NOT 10 days away!! Man I’m stoked. The OBS thread gonna be wild. First threat all year that actually trended in a POSITIVE direction inside of 48 hours, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There was some other stuff going on personally that had me a real mess the last week. Stuff way more important to me then snow but I'm sure it bled over. That's why I cut way back on posts the last day of two. I realized I was full tilt and a mess. Sorry about that. But it's ok now...both the personal thing and the weather! Btw the progression here is very similar to 96. Not exact it all comes across further north initially. But where the h5 and slp ends up is close. Of course ground truth late march isn't going to look like January even if it's a repeat which I'm not saying just noticing the similarities. 2 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: As in January 1996? I would take ⅓ of that. That was a fun storm. Hey, in March, the equivalent may be 1/3 of it (although even half of it isn't impossible in March...but perhaps that's just my snow greed talking, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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