Cobalt Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Gotta say, the Kuchera snow map looks very similar to the 12k NAM. Western VA/MD panhandle jackpot in similar spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 QPF for entire event. Make up your own ratios. Some of this is rain and non accum snow until you get up to I70. Boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 DC gets 5-7”, burbs get upwards of a foot. I’m happy with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: And precip Holy smokes...is that from wave 2 as well?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Holy smokes...is that from wave 2 as well?? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, I'm pretty happy with the 78 hour total. 4-5 is damn good for us this time of year Very close to a legit CCB with wave 2 and if it happens it's right on top. We're already plenty cold. Best short range run of the winter. Makes me want to drink again....nah.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Wow, the EURO looks impressive at this point. Still doesn't have that 2nd wave, but i'll take it. Rain/snow line is an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 850's are good out here for entire event. Surface is below freezing once the precip starts falling. It would be a great storm as modeled. 10 inches of mashed potatoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Meh. Congrats PSU tho There is a way we both win...but it has to be getting wave 2 to amplify. Wave one even if its suppressed will have issues in DC. WAA this late needs a really really anomalous arctic cold air mass in place to do well at sea level our our latitude and I don't think we have that. Plus if wave 1 is suppressed then qpf is lighter and so less cooling. So I think DC can get some accumulation from wave 1...but DC can do really good if we get wave 2 more amped and get a real consolidated ccb to pull through. Heights crashing and all...thats when you can get some real accumulations even down into the city. Getting a stronger/slower wave 1 seems the key to that. When things were moving away from a stronger wave 1 wave 2 was degrading also. Now wave 1 is coming back and so is wave 2. I dont think that is a coincidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 I think there’s some upside to the Euro in the close in burbs. Perhaps WSW criteria isn’t out of the question for us in the beltway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Very close to a legit CCB with wave 2 and if it happens it's right on top. We're already plenty cold. Best short range run of the winter. Makes me want to drink again....nah.... Once I saw this look I was waiting for the pbp lol https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=neus&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2018031812&fh=84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 How's the euro look as far as timeline early tuesday? Looks like mixing for most at least through 12z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 What is the start time on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, I'm pretty happy with the 78 hour total. 4-5 is damn good for us this time of year But why do we think 4-5 is going to actually accumulate? I know we all know the pretty 10:1 snow maps include sleet and obviously the 10:1 ratio. Honestly in DC, my bar would be 1-2” at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Check out these temps...snowing at 0z and continuing overnight with sub freezing surface. Can anyone tell I'm STOKED? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 18, 2018 Author Share Posted March 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, supernovasky said: DC gets 5-7”, burbs get upwards of a foot. I’m happy with it. You get the same amount as DC. Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Bristow, at least 1.2 qpf according to the latest EURO. Maybe we score this time. EURO not prone to drastic changes , I think, so maybe we eventually surpass 1.5 qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: Wow, the EURO looks impressive at this point. Still doesn't have that 2nd wave, but i'll take it. Rain/snow line is an issue. Stop posting if you don't know what you're talking about. Wave 2 is in succession and prolongs the event with cold surface. Wave 2 has room to amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Check out these temps...snowing at 0z and continuing overnight with sub freezing surface. Can anyone tell I'm STOKED? Not to mention this could still trend a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 18, 2018 Author Share Posted March 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There is a way we both win...but it has to be getting wave 2 to amplify. Wave one even if its suppressed will have issues in DC. WAA this late needs a really really anomalous arctic cold air mass in place to do well at sea level our our latitude and I don't think we have that. Plus if wave 1 is suppressed then qpf is lighter and so less cooling. So I think DC can get some accumulation from wave 1...but DC can do really good if we get wave 2 more amped and get a real consolidated ccb to pull through. Heights crashing and all...thats when you can get some real accumulations even down into the city. Getting a stronger/slower wave 1 seems the key to that. When things were moving away from a stronger wave 1 wave 2 was degrading also. Now wave 1 is coming back and so is wave 2. I dont think that is a coincidence. Im fine with the Euro. Our upside is 4" realistically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: But why do we think 4-5 is going to actually accumulate? I know we all know the pretty 10:1 snow maps include sleet and obviously the 10:1 ratio. Honestly in DC, my bar would be 1-2” at best Look at the surface temp panels and then edit your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 18, 2018 Author Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: But why do we think 4-5 is going to actually accumulate? I know we all know the pretty 10:1 snow maps include sleet and obviously the 10:1 ratio. Honestly in DC, my bar would be 1-2” at best I'm not even looking at the stupid maps..which show double what I said. And you're not in DC, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Check out these temps...snowing at 0z and continuing overnight with sub freezing surface. Can anyone tell I'm STOKED? That’s says anyone DC south needs rates. Light precip won’t cut it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Check out these temps...snowing at 0z and continuing overnight with sub freezing surface. Can anyone tell I'm STOKED? What’s the QPF after that panel? Obviously after dark sub freezing we’d accumulate just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Look at the surface temp panels and then edit your post. He is worse than EJ, he is MdDecoy's twin . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 8 minutes ago, HighStakes said: I really like how cold the temps are on this run. Keeps us below freezing the entire time even during Tuesday afternoon. Yeah it’s great, PSU should def be away from the ledge now 4 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: Wow, the EURO looks impressive at this point. Still doesn't have that 2nd wave, but i'll take it. Rain/snow line is an issue. Make better posts. This is so wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 A verified warning for the vast majority of the sub will do wonders. I’m really pulling for this one. Seeing Bob excited, it’s hard not to get sucked in tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just now, H2O said: That’s says anyone DC south needs rates. Light precip won’t cut it There's already snow on the ground. Might be potatoes but VERBATIM the euro is almost a best case scenario. Just need wave 2 to boogie a little more and the precip falls into probably the best late march column you can ask for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 A verified warning for the vast majority of the sub will do wonders. I’m really pulling for this one. Seeing Bob excited, it’s hard not to get sucked in tbh.Literally never seen Bob excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Precip is fairly epic on euro tho. It’s got lots of juice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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