Ji Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: HDERPS is a lot of sleet for the closer burbs before the flip. Like .25+ of heavy sleet. I'm personally like a good sleet base before a flip. Everything is coming together. my last spring Hecs in 1993 had sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yes, because everything is going neg tilt and closing off H5 to our SW. Weak steering flow as well. GFS was the most progressive of the bunch and it was really close to the same closed low/stall off the coast solution. If 0z tonight has full consensus of the closed ull and stall then I think it's a lock. OTOH- with a stall and more ene trajectory, banding could miss in any direction for big totals. It's not the same as a low that climbs the coast. It's all happening overhead. That's why I'm not hugging any one solution when it comes to QPF distribution. Closed lows like this are inherently hard to predict. Zero comparison but March 13 showed how it can break the wrong way. I highly doubt we miss to SW VA like that though. This is a different beast. So what are ya saying...there's a scenario where someone could miss to the northeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Like a dummy I posted this in the banter thread. JMA is in the closed ULL/stall camp. Great vort and qpf panels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Looks like clear skies for the remainder of the afternoon. Hoping we can cool the boundary layer before the clouds roll in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So what are ya saying...there's a scenario where someone could miss to the northeast? There's a scenario for every single member in this sub to be very disappointed but not everyone at the same time. Just relax and let it unfold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Temperatures running above guidance today so far, Upper 50s right now, likely near high as we are clouding up now. No doubt in my mind that NWS could be dead on with Snow/Sleet Accumulation Forecasts. If surface temperatures run like 2-3 degrees warm, then this is a whole different story, more rain turning to a Mix, possibly rate/temperature dependent. IF we are above guidance. Watch wet bulb closely. Honestly don’t see anyone in the region getting more than 6-8” outside of the Mountains perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 NAM has me below 32 for the entire event. Currently 55. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, NinjaWarrior2 said: Temperatures running above guidance today so far, Upper 50s right now, likely near high as we are clouding up now. No doubt in my mind that NWS could be dead on with Snow/Sleet Accumulation Forecasts. If surface temperatures run like 2-3 degrees warm, then this is a whole different story, more rain turning to a Mix, possibly rate/temperature dependent. IF we are above guidance. Watch wet bulb closely. Honestly don’t see anyone in the region getting more than 6-8” outside of the Mountains perhaps. And here we go! Surface temps aren’t the main issue. Temps in the 900-800 mb layer are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 37 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Awfully conservative from LWX. Sheesh... Smart forecast. Start low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, WxUSAF said: And here we go! Surface temps aren’t the main issue. Temps in the 900-800 mb layer are. I agree. Just last month there was a whole bunch of doom and gloom when temps were in the mid 40s (like 8 or 9 degrees higher than most models showed), and then Bob Chill calmed down everyone, and then once precip came in temps kicked down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, WxUSAF said: And here we go! Surface temps aren’t the main issue. Temps in the 900-800 mb layer are. also, our storm is wednesday and the high pressure is building in, not retreating. i'm not even worried about today's temps. march 2001 was shorts and a t-shirt weather. this is typical march weather. my concern is where that h5 closes off and how quickly the low develops off the coast. that will determine whether we're south fringed on wednesday or if we're under the goods for the entire day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: There's a scenario for every single member in this sub to be very disappointed but not everyone at the same time. Just relax and let it unfold I'm not sweating it THAT much, tbh...(albeit snow greed is always a temptation...especially folks northEAST of me get heavier snows (north west areas I'm used to, lol) But such is life in the corridor! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: And here we go! Surface temps aren’t the main issue. Temps in the 900-800 mb layer are. Exactly. Today doesn't mean jack shizzle. The cold air advection is likely well modeled. And just for the record, EVERYONE will be above freezing tonight. Accept it and zip it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, NinjaWarrior2 said: Temperatures running above guidance today so far, Upper 50s right now, likely near high as we are clouding up now. No doubt in my mind that NWS could be dead on with Snow/Sleet Accumulation Forecasts. If surface temperatures run like 2-3 degrees warm, then this is a whole different story, more rain turning to a Mix, possibly rate/temperature dependent. IF we are above guidance. Watch wet bulb closely. Honestly don’t see anyone in the region getting more than 6-8” outside of the Mountains perhaps. Dews are verrry low so think will cool off easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I think the warm layer is very shallow. If we get heavy precip with the WAA thump the temps will drop fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: I'm not sweating it THAT much, tbh...(albeit snow greed is always a temptation...especially folks northEAST of me get heavier snows (north west areas I'm used to, lol) But such is life in the corridor! Focus only on your yard and forget the rest of the world exists. It's always snowing somewhere 365 days a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: I think the warm layer is very shallow. If we get heavy precip with the WAA thump the temps will drop fast This is different than a few weeks ago when the warm layer was very shallow at the surface (but cold upstairs). Once precip arrived, temps dropped to near freezing. This setup is different in that the warm layer is ~800-850 or so. The column will cool as the L gets to our east and winds change direction. Surface will be helped by a H pressing down from Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: One more EURO please. The NAM brothers have been kind to our yards so far and the idea of a stall of any kind is something to appreciate. If nothing else we can binge watch snow t.v. as far as actual accums for us I am thinking 1-2 snow...maybe a final inch as the end as things really cool off upstairs...so 1-3...inch or two of sleet beneath the surface seems like a given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Focus only on your yard and forget the rest of the world exists. It's always snowing somewhere 365 days a year. *clenching stepped on toes* Pulling no punches today, I see...pardon me for wanting to know what my chances were for seeing something heavier than forecast. I AM focusing on MBY...and of course missing a heavier stripe by a few miles east is a little disappointing...Ya know how the snow-loving mind works...if ya can get a little more than expected, of course you're gonna parse details. Now...to root for a Delmarva stall in the perfect location! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 55 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: HDERPS looks like everything else. Big hit NW of 95 already but the good stuff is rolling at the end of the run. VERY narrow spread with 12z today. Euro will probably look better than 0z for wave 2 as well. If it were to confirm that is an almost perfect location of the high for D.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 10 minutes ago, BristowWx said: The NAM brothers have been kind to our yards so far and the idea of a stall of any kind is something to appreciate. If nothing else we can binge watch snow t.v. as far as actual accums for us I am thinking 1-2 snow...maybe a final inch as the end as things really cool off upstairs...so 1-3...inch or two of sleet beneath the surface seems like a given. I'm going to go out on a limb and say 4-6 of snow, preceded by some sleet, and of course stating as rain. Too much going over head with this complex system that I don't think the final outcome has been determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: I'm going to go out on a limb and say 4-6 of snow, preceded by some sleet, and of course stating as rain. Too much going over head with this complex system that I don't think the final outcome has been determined. Ok. we can go with that. IDK what will happen but I have often witnessed changeovers that don't quite go as planned or rates that don't materialize for our area. I like the stall idea but if it doesn't produce for us then its a long drawn out time of nothing. Euro is starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 wow GFS even closer to the coast with the 986 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Euro has a 986mb off Delmarva at 12z Wednesday. They better be as good as it looks... More tucked than either GFS or GGEM. 850mb below freezing for the 95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Awaiting precip panels but this looks decent. I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Euro 986 50 miles off the Delmarva. If that's not a huge hit we're just cursed this year lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Some RGEM ensemble plots. Mean qpf as snow continues to look really good. Mostly tightened the gradient (narrowed the spread) compared to last night. Here's total precipitation. Sorry about the color scale. I'm trying to be consistent and use the weather.us color scales for these plots, but they have "yellow" covering a wide range. And sleet. Not as much ice as I expected. There's also a little freezing rain: About 0.1" mean in the nw burbs, and more in the mountains of West Virginia. But nothing like the 3k NAM. Not worth showing at this point. I can't generate probabilistic plots for events that last more than 24 hours, so here's the qpf as snow for all ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Euro has a 986mb off Delmarva at 12z Wednesday. They better be as good as it looks... More tucked than either GFS or GGEM. 850mb below freezing for the 95 corridor. Whooaaa buddy....buckle up. Gonna be interesting to see what kind of totals it spits out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Euro 986 50 miles off the Delmarva. If that's not a huge hit we're just cursed this year lol. 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Whooaaa buddy....buckle up. Gonna be interesting to see what kind of totals it spits out! Yeah, I mean that’s just a classic look for a DC-Baltimore snowstorm. Closed 500mb contour... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 DCA has to be around 33 at 18z TUES... 35 degree line is SE of there and 32 degree line is knocking on the door Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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